We return this week on a Tuesday night in the NBA that sees two series begin in each conference. The Celtics open in Boston against the Cavaliers, while the Thunder host the Mavericks in the first of their seven-game series. There are some injury concerns in Boston and with Dallas, leaving us some solid avenues to attack on Underdog.
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Jarrett Allen H/L Than 10.5 Rebounds
The Cavaliers aren’t winning this series without a healthy Jarrett Allen. One of their best players in Cleveland, Allen continues to be hampered by a rib injury. The fact he’s even playing is impressive, yet it is hard to think he returns 100% healthy. He missed the last three games in the Magic series and is iffy tonight, according to reports. We play the projection we are given, and 10.5 rebounds for a guy dealing with bad ribs is hard enough, let alone the task of doing it against Boston.
At full strength, Allen only eclipsed this number one time during the regular season against Boston. It becomes increasingly hard to grasp how Allen is going to take advantage of an already-difficult matchup with sore ribs and — expectedly — fewer minutes on the floor.
We gain a 4.7% EV edge against the market by choosing LESS than 10.5 rebounds for Allen. Given Underdog’s implied odds of -122, we beat the -136 market price.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jarrett Allen LESS Than 10.5 Rebounds
Evan Mobley H/L Than 13.5 Points
Things went downhill after the first two games against Orlando, at least for Evan Mobley scoring points. Gone were the 16- and 17-point games; instead he barely scraped 14 twice and settled for games as low as 3 points. This is a much harder matchup for Mobley against Boston — even without Kristaps Porzingis.
The loss of Boston’s big man hurts the Celtics in offensive production, but they will run a healthy rotation to keep defensive pressure up front on both Mobley and Allen. It’s the same reason why Allen playing through a rib injury isn’t bumped up without Kristaps on the floor. Boston is still incredibly good around the rim.
Mobley missed 14 points in two of three games in Orlando, needing 13 shots to hit just 14 points in the other game. The difference in opponent and game plan should carry over into a lower-scoring night. Donovan Mitchell is going to get shots; so are about three to four other guys overall.
OddsShopper’s pick’em tool gives us a 2.9% EV edge with our -122 implied odds at Underdog. By going LESS than 13.5 points, we beat the -130 true odds.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Evan Mobley LESS Than 13.5 Points
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