Overtime is never kind to an under play. We split our card last night but return with another 3x play on Underdog for the Western Conference Finals. It should be electric to say the least, Anthony Edwards should make sure of it. The Mavs are hoping for a healthier Luka Doncic alongside a more consistent Kyrie Irving, as the stars should carry this series. Here are our top two plays for Underdog for Wednesday, May 22nd!
It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: Choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning ticket. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning entries
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
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PJ Washington H/L Than 12.5 Points
The Mavericks saw a huge bump from PJ Washington in their previous series against the Thunder. Washington outshot his regular season averages – mainly from three – by a nice margin, outperforming what he normally did from three. That’s the theme of our card tonight; the change in matchup from the Thunder to Wolves, going from beatable matchups to the league’s top defense. It’s hard enough for Washington to continue the scoring success he saw against Oklahoma City, let alone doing it now against a significantly better defense.
Washington’s primary form of production came from three – with nearly 4 makes per game on nearly 50% shooting. Those numbers are so tough to sustain over the playoffs if that’s not a typical thing during the season. It’s not for Washington. The Wolves thrive on defense in slowing down the three point shot, effectively neutralizing what Washington did best to score 18+ a game. That shift in matchup was the prime catalyst in dropping Washington’s number, it’s also why we are going LOWER than 12.5 points.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: PJ Washington LOWER Than 12.5 Points
Daniel Gafford H/L Than 8.5 Points
A smaller market play to round out the card for us as we look to fade Daniel Gafford. Mainly in the scoring department as seven to eight points won’t negatively correlate to much else. We just focus on that because of the massive switch in matchup.
Gafford was able to slide in with a handful of minutes against a weaker OKC front. That advantage is gone against a front court that survived Nikola Jokic. There’s depth with Minnesota too, which should limit any chances inside the Mavs rotation. Mostly, this is a play where Gafford should struggle to score no matter who he faces.
The last thing is foul trouble. It’s not easy defending the Minny bigs, even off the bench as tight as Minnesota’s rotation can get. Gafford benefitted from a minutes bump because of the strength over OKC, that won’t be evident tonight against the Wolves.
OddsShopper’s Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool gives us a small but profitable 0.3% EV edge with our -122 implied odds at Underdog. By going lower than 8.5 points, we beat the -123 true odds. It may seem tight, but these edges net profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Daniel Gafford LOWER Than 8.5 Points
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