As we continue our Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction series, today with a key look at Donte DiVincenzo and Pascal Siakam, we need to look at the night that was first.
A weird night for certain as the absence of Jarrett Allen sealed both the Cavs fate and our entry. We void and lose, but back today with another 3x play! Just one game on the slate as we have the Knicks looking to go up 2-0 with a win over the visiting Pacers. The first game flew over the total so we should expect a similar tempo in tonight’s game at the Garden.
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Donte DiVincenzo H/L Than 4.5 Rebounds
The Knicks got 43 minutes out of Donte DiVincenzo in game 1 and he still finished below this rebound total. The Pacers have length in the backcourt which helps neutralize any height or spacing for DiVincenzo. The minutes won’t matter nor will any increase in scoring. The Knicks are now down Mitchell Robinson for the rest of the playoffs, which adds more weight and emphasis on other guys to grab boards, not DiVincenzo.
We just saw game 1 play out that way as both Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart took over rebounding responsibilities. Helped by a nine-rebound game from O.G. Anonoby, there’s less room for the Knicks sharpshooter to grab rebounds. We like the fade here for DiVincenzo, as he will be a primary focus on the long-range game, rather than crashing boards.
The edge comes from the OddsShopper pick’em tool. We have implied odds on Underdog at -122, so we gain a 2% EV edge beating the -127 true price. Beating the market price is never a bad thing, especially when the play makes this much sense.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Donte DiVincenzo LESS Than 4.5 Rebounds
Pascal Siakam H/L Than 7.5 Rebounds
The Pacers dropped a tough one at MSG as the tempo of game 1 was to their liking. The Knicks are down another man, basically running a 6.5-man rotation at this point, which may open up some spots for Indy to attack. Unfortunately, it won’t be on the glass, not even for Pascal Siakam.
The Pacers got minimal production on the glass in the first game and not much should change here, even with the absence of Mitchell Robinson. The Pacers “bigs” were nonexistent, and Siakam’s six boards were tied for the team lead. There are too many solid rebounders on the Knicks, from big to Brunson, making this number extremely difficult to top.
This is a physical game against a tough opponent. Anunoby makes things tough on the wing and up front at times for any Knicks opponent, the matchups Siakam will face are almost designed to keep him off the glass. So far, it’s worked.
OddsShopper’s pick’em tool gives us a 1.5% EV edge with our -122 implied odds at Underdog. By going LESS than 7.5 rebounds, we beat the -126 true odds.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Pascal Siakam LESS Than 7.5 Rebounds
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