Exactly one month after ESPN’s second NBA MVP straw poll placed Nikola Jokic comfortably in first place, updated NBA MVP odds on DraftKings now show that the two-time defending MVP is no longer the favorite for the award. The Denver Nuggets‘ four-game losing streak — exacerbated by Jokic’s continuing defensive struggles — has allowed Joel Embiid to leap into first place. With less than a month remaining on the season, it seems the MVP race is going to come down to the wire.
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Updated NBA MVP Odds: A New Frontrunner Emerges
Check out the latest NBA MVP odds below, per DraftKings Sportsbook:
The last couple weeks have seen the Nuggets drop four straight, including embarrassing losses to the Spurs and Bulls, and social media has not been shy about picking apart Jokic’s defensive effort. Meanwhile, Embiid has picked up his play over this stretch. He has dropped at least 31 points in seven straight games — all while shooting over 50% from the field and playing strong defense — and more importantly, the Philadelphia 76ers won all but one of those games. Philadelphia is now just one game back of the Boston Celtics for the second seed in the East and just 3.5 back of the Milwaukee Bucks for the top seed.
With this stretch, Jokic has dipped to +150 and Embiid is up to -110.
Jokic picked a bad time to have his worst stretch of the season. While the Nuggets are probably far enough ahead in the West to fend off any contenders for the No. 1 seed (4.5 games up on Sacramento and Memphis), Jokic could not afford any lapses as he pursues a third consecutive MVP. Embiid has been completely dominant, leading the league in scoring once again, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is third in the odds and very much in play at +350) has not slipped at all.
Plus, the award being driven by narrative means that any trend of public perception can strongly influence votes, and Jokic’s defense has been a huge talking point of late. Since Embiid and Antetokounmpo are both elite of the elite defensively, there is a good chance that the immense value Jokic provides on offense will not offset his apparently negative rim protection. And since Denver is now behind the 76ers in the loss column, there is no team success to fall back on.
Now, Jokic’s individual numbers have still been excellent, and he is still averaging a triple-double. But Russell Westbrook has essentially killed the novelty of such a feat to the point where it seems to not be playing much of a part in MVP discussion.
Embiid clearly has the momentum, but there are still more than 10 games left in the season. Embiid could falter, Jokic could bounce back, and even Giannis could go on a run to sneak in for his third award. With how much MVP odds have shifted just in the last week, this whole race could look entirely different by April.
