The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings squared off in a full playoff series last season, but they’ll now have to battle in a do-or-die play-in game tonight. It certainly hasn’t been the season either team has hoped for, but a playoff run could turn the whole thing around. Let’s dive into the Warriors-Kings odds as we get into our advanced stats-driver preview and make a pick with positive expected value (+EV). If you’re hungry for more NBA content, check out our full play-in tournament preview, our guide to +EV NBA betting or our NBA betting model’s picks.
Warriors-Kings Odds, Advanced Stats Preview & +EV Pick
Warriors-Kings Odds
Odds via bet365
GSW ML: -150 | SAC ML: +125
GSW -2.5: -110 | SAC +2.5: -110
Over 223: -110 | Under 223: -110
Live Warriors-Kings odds
Warriors-Kings Preview & +EV Pick
The No. 10 Golden State Warriors will visit the No. 9 Sacramento Kings in a rematch of last year’s playoff series. Although they’re the home team, the Kings are underdogs to the visiting Warriors, which speaks to just how far the team has fallen this year. Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton is locked in for the Pacers.
The Kings are in a tougher spot than they were last year. Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter are out with injuries, leaving them with a tighter rotation at wing and thrusting Keon Ellis into a starting role. While Keegan Murray has been better this year than last year (and the team added Sasha Vezenkov in free agency), neither of them can make up for their losses.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are arguably in a better spot despite their worse performance this season. Jonathan Kuminga has broken out. Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski are providing valuable minutes off the bench. Chris Paul is in town now, too. The only big departure was Donte DiVincenzo.
The Warriors also have more efficient roster combinations at their disposal than the Kings. The Stephen Curry–Draymond Green–Jonathan Kuminga combo logged 590 minutes together and recorded a nice +11.5 net rating. Swap Green for Andrew Wiggins, and you’ve got a combo with a +7.4 over 533 minutes.
Meanwhile, Sacramento’s best available lineup is Keon Ellis–Harrison Barnes–Domantas Sabonis at +7.7. The team’s two next-best combinations featured Kevin Huerter, leaving the De’Aaron Fox–Keegan Murray-Sabonis combo as the next-best choice at +5.3.
The Kings and Warriors have met just once in 2024, and that game illustrates a clearer path to victory for the Dubs than the Kings even though the Dubs dropped that contest by a point. The Warriors, who were without Paul and Jackson-Davis, got 31 points from Kuminga off the bench and 33 from Curry. The Kings needed an improbable career-high 39 from Barnes, which required him to shoot 58/58/100.
Warriors-Kings EV Pick: Golden State ML -138 at FanDuel
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