Omaha awaits — we’re just weeks away from the start of the College World Series as the NCAA baseball regular season comes to a close this weekend. Of course, we’ve got conference tournaments, regionals and super regionals before we head to Nebraska, and today’s slate is no exception. Let’s dive into my college baseball picks and predictions for today, Friday, May 17, using the college baseball odds at FanDuel. We’ll be looking at the West Virginia-TCU game in the Big 12.
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College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Friday, May 17
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: West Virginia-TCU | May 17
West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs
WVU: +154 | TCU: -200
Game Time: 7:30 pm. ET
Where: Fort Worth, Texas
Odds via FanDuel
The TCU Horned Frogs almost made it to the national championship series last season, but they came up just short against Florida. But last season’s Big 12 win and near-miss on the natty seems long ago now, as the Frogs sit at 31-17 and 14-14 in conference play. Brayden Taylor has been sorely missed.
Today’s pitching matchup pits TCU RHP Kole Klecker against WVU LHP Derek Clark, a matchup that favors the Mountaineers. Klecker (5.08 ERA) has fallen off since last season. He recorded a much more impressive 3.72 ERA that year. The difference has been contact: Klecker was allowing 7.3 H/9 last year but is now coughing up 10.2, ballooning his WHIP from 1.117 to 1.421. The walk and home run rates have remained mostly the same.
On the other hand, Clark (3.14 ERA) has looked exceptional in his first D1 season. His 1.144 WHIP is far better than Klecker’s, and, unlike Klecker, we’ve seen Clark in other leagues. He played in Cape Cod over the summer and led the league in innings pitched (40) with a 1.80 ERA and 1.025 WHIP. Clark’s range of outcomes is far narrower than Klecker’s, and the stable presence he provides was one of the reasons I was high on West Virginia in my college baseball season preview.
The pitching matchup may slightly favor WVU, but that’s not our only edge — the Mountaineers are better at the plate, too. WVU’s .856 team OPS, while not great (it ranks 111th), is still far better than TCU’s .780 (211st). WVU’s numbers are also skewed by the multi-week absence of star slugger J.J. Wetherholt (1.199 OPS).
The last time WVU faced a righty, the Mountaineers went with Logan Sauve (.835 OPS), Wetherholt, Sam White (.957) and Reed Chumley (1.074) as their first four bats. When TCU last fast a lefty, they went with Peyton Chatagnier (.776), Sam Myers (.884), Logan Maxwell (.950) and Kurtis Byrne (.778).
The Mountaineers have been getting better and more consistent production from the top of their order than the Frogs. They’ve also been getting better outings from Clark than the Frogs have been getting from Klecker. While TCU is a more storied program (WVU has never even made it to Omaha), the Frogs are getting far too much credit as a -200 favorite.
College Baseball Pick Today for West Virginia-TCU: WVU ML +154 at FanDuel
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