The College World Series is next weekend, and the eight lucky teams bound for Omaha will be determined by this weekend’s Super Regional round. We saw four games on Friday, all of which were won by the home favorites, and we’ll get another eight tonight. Let’s dive into my college baseball picks and predictions for today, Saturday, June 8, using the college baseball odds at DraftKings. We’ll be looking at Game 1 of the Lexington Super Regional, which brings us an Oregon State-Kentucky matchup.
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College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Saturday, June 8
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Oregon State-Kentucky | June 8
Oregon State Beavers at Kentucky Wildcats
OSU: +105 | UK: -125
Game Time: 6 p.m. ET
Where: Lexington, Ky.
Odds via DraftKings
The Kentucky Wildcats took care of business in the Lexington Regional, advancing past Western Michigan, Illinois and Indiana State in just three games. It was a good recovery after their surprisingly early exit in the SEC tournament that saw them lose to LSU and South Carolina.
Kentucky, the second seed nationally, is an enigma. On the one hand, they are No. 2 in the RPI with a dominant 21-9 (70%) record in Quad 1 games. On the other hand, they are just 45th by OPS (.906) and 62nd by ERA (5.11).
We can chalk their lack of impressive statistical production to the eighth-toughest strength of schedule, but Tennessee and Texas A&M both managed to be top-7 teams in both metrics despite the 29th and 19th hardest schedules, respectively.
It’s the complete opposite story for Oregon State: the Beavers are just No. 11 in the RPI with the fifth-best OPS (.992) and seventh-best ERA (4.03) largely due to their 62nd-ranked strength of schedule. Still, they went 5-3 (62.5%) in Quad 1 games, giving them a winning percentage that isn’t far behind Kentucky’s.
Few Supers are as hard to handicap as this one. Game 1 features Oregon State ace RHP Aidan May (3.15 RA9, 1.12 WHIP) against Kentucky RHP Trey Pooser (4.01 RA9, 1.17 WHIP). May has been a starter all season but Pooser began the year as a reliever. As a starter, Pooser sports a 3.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, not meaningfully different from his overall numbers.
It’s a close pitching matchup, but it’s worth noting that Oregon State boasts the seventh-best weekend bullpen ERA (3.86) while Kentucky ranks 71st (5.14). If the Beavers have a lead through seven, expect to see closer RHP Bridger Holmes (3.09 RA9, 0.969 WHIP) in the game. Holmes averages 2.1 innings pitched per outing. He ranks third in college baseball with 13 saves.
The Beavers also have a higher-ceiling batter than anyone on the Cats. Australian superstar Travis Bazzana trails only Georgia’s Charlie Condon in OPS at 1.494. Behind Bazzana, it’s Micah McDowell (1.167) and Gavin Turley (1.007). Kentucky has just one regular starter with an OPS above 1.1 (Ryan Waldschmidt: 1.139) and just one more above 1 (Ryan Nicholson: 1.059).
If Oregon State is going to get to Omaha, winning May’s start will be important. It’s not quite essential — the Beavers could drop this one and still advance — but it’ll be a lot more difficult. Expect the Beavers to throw everything they’ve got at this one if they can get out to an early lead. This game should be a true pick’em, so I like Oregon State’s moneyline for +105 at DraftKings.
College Baseball Pick Today for Oregon State-Kentucky: Oregon State ML +105 at DraftKings
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