We secured a profit yesterday with our 1.5-unit wager on the under 11.5 at -132, but we also lost our 0.5-unit +165 moneyline ticket on Wake. However, we scored massive closing line value (CLV) on both wagers, and you win more of those bets than you lose. Let’s dig into the college baseball odds to make our betting pick for Saturday’s College World Series action between Florida and LSU.
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College Baseball World Series 2023 Betting Odds & Picks for Today: Florida-LSU
Florida (-130) vs. LSU | Saturday, June 24 at 7 p.m. ET
The LSU Tigers took down the Wake Forest Demon Deacons to secure a bid to the championship series, but at what cost? They needed ace RHP Paul Skenes (13-2) to take the mound for them, which puts his availability for this series in serious question. With Game 1 scheduled for Saturday, LSU is likely to start last weekend’s Sunday pitcher, RHP Ty Floyd (7-0). Floyd has looked solid this year but is a massive step down from Skenes.
Unlike LSU, the Florida Gators got here without losing a game. They have won all three of their games in Omaha to this point, and they’ll get to start their ace, RHP Brandon Sproat (8-3). Unsurprisingly, the books are treating the Gators as the favorite. You’ll find them at odds between -120 (54.6%) at DraftKings and -136 (57.6%) at FanDuel to win.
Even with a rest advantage, Florida shouldn’t be favored for this game. The hype around Sproat isn’t all that justified. LSU knocked Sproat around for a 21.43 ERA in the regular season last year. He lasted 2.1 innings after giving up four hits, two walks and five earned runs. He didn’t even look that good during his first start in Omaha, as he recorded a 4.43 ERA against Virginia. He lasted 6.1 innings and gave up five hits, three walks and three earned runs. He also hit two batters.
While the LSU moneyline is appealing, I’m more interested in the runline. The Gators may be undefeated in Omaha, but they’re yet to win a game by more than a single run. Four of their last five games were one-run wins. Meanwhile, LSU’s only postseason losses through the SEC tournament have come by exactly one run. With the low-scoring games we’ve seen in Omaha thus far, it’s a big ask for Florida to take this game by multiple runs.
We can buy LSU to keep this within a run at odds of -170 (62.9%) via Caesars Sportsbook. The juice obviously isn’t great, but you won’t find this shorter than -180 (64.3%) anywhere else. Bovada, a slightly sharper offshore book, lists the LSU runline at -185 (64.9%). Let’s wager enough to secure a half-unit return. If you haven’t signed up for Caesars yet, your first bet is on the house for up to $1,000!
College Baseball World Series Bet: LSU +1.5 -170 for 0.85 Units at Caesars
