The action in Omaha hasn’t disappointed viewers yet. The first day of the College World Series saw both games decided by a one-run margin with the go-ahead run scored in the ninth inning. The two losers, TCU and Virginia, will do battle in a win-or-go-home matchup early on Sunday, then the winners, Oral Roberts and Florida, will play in the evening. Let’s dive into the college baseball odds as we break down the best bets and make our picks for today, Sunday, June 18.
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College Baseball World Series 2023 Betting Odds & Picks Today: June 18
Bracket 2: Virginia vs. TCU | Sunday, June 18 at 2 p.m. ET
I’m only getting exposure to one of Sunday’s games. The Florida-Oral Roberts contest is fairly priced; the Gators are a much-deserved heavy favorite. Instead, I’m locking in a play on the favorite for Virginia-TCU. Both of these teams lost their opening contest in heartbreaking fashion, now it’s a question of which is more resilient.
The Virginia Cavaliers have an edge in several departments for Sunday’s contest, but their largest edge is on the mound. The Cavaliers will start LHP Connelly Early (12-2). Early owns a 3.06 ERA across 16 starts and 82.1 innings pitched, which is far better than either of TCU’s likely options, RHP Sam Stoutenborough (5-0, 4.52 ERA) or Cam Brown (3-2, 5.50 ERA).
Although the TCU Horned Frogs made plenty of noise on offense over the past month, they have slowly regressed to the mean. That’s a problem because their offense trails Virginia’s in most key metrics. Virginia outranks TCU in OPS (.958 to .889) and OBP (.428 to .401). TCU’s lineup has slightly more power, but that may not matter much due to Virginia’s leg up on the mound.
Another advantage for Virginia is that two of TCU’s best hitters by OPS, Brayden Taylor (1.081) and Cole Fontenelle (1.117), may struggle against Early because he is a left-handed pitcher. Several of Fontenelle’s highlight recent plays have come with him on the left side of the plate, and I’m unsure how a pivot back to the right would affect his power.
The Cavaliers probably wouldn’t win this one in a blowout normally, but this is an elimination game, and teams do weird things when the end of their season looms. The Horned Frogs haven’t played in an elimination game of any variety this postseason, but Virginia experienced this twice against Duke last weekend. The Cavaliers responded by winning both elimination games by 10 runs. Let’s trust the favorite that just experienced this kind of pressure last weekend.
College Baseball World Series Bet: Virginia -1.5 +100 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
