Ladies and gentlemen, we’re on to Omaha. The College World Series has arrived, and double-elimination play will begin on Friday, June 14 with Virginia taking on UNC at 1 p.m. ET. Super Regionals didn’t see many upsets, but two hosts, Georgia (+1200) and Clemson (+1100), bowed out, leading to some movement in the college baseball odds. Oh, and one of Texas A&M’s superstars got hurt, too. Let’s dive into the 2024 College World Series odds powered by DraftKings Sportsbook.
College World Series Odds Update After Super Regionals
College Baseball Odds for the 2024 College World Series
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2024 College World Series Odds
| Team | Odds 5/13 | Odds 6/4 | Odds 6/11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | +750 | +300 | +290 |
| Texas A&M | +500 | +310 | +330 |
| Kentucky | +2000 | +800 | +500 |
| UNC | +2200 | +650 | +600 |
| FSU | +1500 | +550 | +750 |
| Virginia | +3000 | +800 | +900 |
| NC State | N/A | +1800 | +1100 |
| Florida | N/A | +2000 | +1200 |
College Baseball Odds Analysis
No. 1 Tennessee: +290 at DraftKings
Not much changed at the top of the College World Series odds board. Tennessee advanced, as was expected, against a low-seeded Evansville team, although it took them three games to do so.
The Vols head to Omaha ranked No. 3 in the RPI, losing two spots due to the loss and lower-ranked opponent. Their odds still shortened from +290 to +300, a difference of less than a percent of implied probability.
Tennessee’s weekend begins with a game against Florida State. North Carolina (+600) and Virginia (+900) are the other teams in their pool, all of which were hosts at the Region and Super Regional level.
No. 2 Texas A&M: +330 at DraftKings
The Texas A&M Aggies took care of the Oregon Ducks in two games. They did it in dramatic fashion, staging comeback wins in both contests after their starting pitchers, LHPs Ryan Prager and Shane Sdao, struggled and exited early.
But while the Aggies only played two games, they were costly ones: Sdao went down with an injury and head coach Jim Schlossnagle hasn’t indicated whether he’ll be ready for next weekend.
Worse, star outfielder Braden Montgomery, whose 1.187 OPS and 27 home runs helped the Aggies get to Omaha, suffered a season-ending ankle injury while trying to advance to home plate.
Despite the injuries, Texas A&M’s odds only lengthened from +300 to +330, a decrease of just under two percent. As an early Aggies investor, I’m sitting pretty on my +2000 ticket for them to win it all (and cashed my +250 ticket for them to get to Omaha), but I certainly wouldn’t advise buying more shares of Texas A&M at +330.
No. 3 Kentucky: +500 at DraftKings
The Kentucky Wildcats are hard to figure. On the one hand, they recaptured the honors of No. 1 in the RPI with their two-game sweep of Oregon State, bringing them to 23-9 in Quad 1 games. On the other, they come into Omaha ranked 52nd in OPS (.900) and 50th in ERA (4.95); both Texas A&M and Tennessee are top-10 in both metrics.
This discrepancy is likely due to Kentucky’s rough schedule. The Cats have played the sixth-toughest schedule, edging out Texas A&M (18th) and Tennessee (27th). But interestingly, they rank third in strength of schedule in their four-team grouping in Omaha: Florida (1st) and NC State (3rd) have had a rougher go of it.
Last weekend saw the Cats take care of business against Oregon State, a team that ended the year with top-10 rankings in OPS and ERA but was only 55th by strength of schedule. It’s possible the Aggies meet a similar fate against the Cats if both teams make it to the finals.
No team saw their odds shorten more than Kentucky this weekend. The Cats’ odds improved from +800 to +500, an increase of 5.5%, largely because they no longer have to worry about getting bounced by Travis Bazzana-led Oregon State, who clocked in as one of the best visiting teams last weekend.
No. 4 North Carolina: +600 at DraftKings
After opening Regionals with longer odds to win the College World Series than one of the teams they were hosting, the North Carolina Tar Heels have worked their way to No. 4 in both the RPI and the odds board. They also lead the four ACC contenders.
The Tar Heels beat the West Virginia Mountaineers in two games last weekend, but they needed a walk-off home run to get the job done in Game 1, and they only won Game 2 by one-run margin. Clutch outfielder Vance Honeycutt homered in both games. Aside from his heroics, it wasn’t quite the performance you’d hope to see the No. 4 team put together against the No. 31 team.
UNC’s weekend begins with a matchup against Virginia. Although Florida State now ranks No. 5 in the RPI, ahead of Virginia, North Carolina dodges both them and Tennessee until Game 2. No disrespect to Virginia, but that’s a favorable draw for the Tar Heels.
No. 5 Florida State: +750 at DraftKings
The Florida State Seminoles handled the UConn Huskies in Supers, blowing them out by 20 runs in Game 1 before winning a 12-inning Game 2 by a pair of runs. The market responded to their two-game series win by… lengthening their odds from +550 to +750? Huh?
The line movement makes sense if you stop to think about it. Florida State had a pretty easy opponent in Supers. North Carolina and Virginia had trickier matchups and could’ve gotten knocked out, which would’ve moved the ‘Noles up a spot in the bracket, helping them avoid an early date with Tennessee.
But that scenario didn’t come to pass, and with Game 1 scheduled against the No. 1 national seed, Florida State’s odds of winning the College World Series are now a little under 4% worse than they were a week ago.
