It is time to continue our bold college basketball predictions series by looking at several picks, including a move with South Carolina too good to ignore.
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College Basketball Predictions Today
Florida at South Carolina
While the matchup between Tennessee and Alabama will steal headlines on Saturday evening, it’s not the only ranked SEC matchup on the board. Florida and South Carolina have been two of the biggest surprises in college basketball this season, particularly the Gamecocks who were picked to finish dead last in the preseason SEC media poll. However, Lamont Paris has done an excellent job with his team this season.
South Carolina presents a ton of stylistic challenges for Florida, who loves to run in the open floor. The Gators rank 28th in adjusted tempo while the Gamecocks rank 352nd, and I expect this game to be played at the home team’s pace. Florida ranks in the top 40 in transition scoring, but South Carolina is ranked in the top 40 on defense and will force the Gators to operate in the half-court more often.
When the Gators are in the half-court, they’ll meet a South Carolina defense ranked in the 85th percentile defending the rim per Synergy. The Gamecocks force their opponents into tough jump shots and they rank 20th in open 3 rate allowed per ShotQuality. That’s problematic for a Florida team that doesn’t generate consistent clean looks from deep, ranking just 264th in open 3 rate.
South Carolina’s offense certainly lags behind its defense, but the Gamecocks should find success in the post in this game. They love to work the ball inside, ranking in the 89th percentile in post-up frequency, and that’s a major weakness of the Florida defense as they’re in the 36th percentile defending post-up sets per Synergy. Overall, the Gators are in the 48th percentile in half-court defensive efficiency.
I also expect Meechie Johnson to have a strong game here as he is over his recent slump. Johnson is coming off a 22-point outing on efficient 50% shooting in the team’s road win at Texas A&M, and I’m hopeful that carries over to this game. Johnson puts constant pressure on the rim and helps generate open 3-point looks for his teammates.
Ultimately, I’m backing the Gamecocks at home as I expect them to control the tempo in this game. Todd Golden has done an excellent job elevating this Florida program, but the Gators have struggled on the road, going just 3-5 in true road games and ranking 317th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rating. With the better defense at home, bet on the Gamecocks coming out on top.
College Basketball Predictions Today: South Carolina -2 (play to -3)
Kansas at Baylor
BYU shocked the world on Tuesday with a win at the Phog, ending Kansas’s streaks of 19 straight home victories and 82 straight wins when leading at halftime. The Cougars were limping into that game, losing their three prior road games by double digits and they had gone just 2-6 straight up and 1-7 ATS on the road entering the game. Kansas’s loss was emblematic of a litany of issues facing this Jayhawks team.
Kansas has eschewed the three-point line this season, ranking just 330th in three-point attempt rate, and that has made them far easier to guard in conference play. The loss of Kevin McCullar Jr. to injury has further complicated matters, and the Jayhawks are just 197th in adjusted offensive efficiency since his first absence which came in Kansas’s home win over Baylor.
The Jayhawks held on to pull that game out at home, but it wasn’t pretty, and they managed just one made field goal over the final 7 minutes and 45 seconds. Baylor stymied Hunter Dickinson, holding him to just 7-19 shooting (36.8%), and defenses have been able to collapse in on Dickinson without fear of getting burned by any perimeter shooting.
Baylor boasts an elite rim protector in Yves Missi, who crushed that matchup against Dickinson with 21 points and 8 rebounds. He’s an elite shot blocker and was a huge reason why Baylor managed a massive 42-25 rebounding edge on the road in that game. He draws 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes with his physical interior play.
Missi will be part of a concerted effort by Baylor to get Kansas into foul trouble, and the Bears rank 24th in free throw rate on offense. The Jayhawks rank just 335th in bench minutes this season, and that’s with McCullar active for most of their games, so the lack of depth could become a real problem in this game if starters get into foul trouble.
Baylor is relentless in attacking the rim, and I expect RayJ Dennis to be much more productive in this game after being held to just 3 points in that earlier matchup. Freshman Ja’Kobe Walter has also continued to emerge as a game-changing presence for the Bears, and Baylor ranks 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of the calendar year.
Kansas has struggled on the road all season, going 2-5 in conference play and ranking 331st in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rating. It’s clearly a team trending down, and with McCullar likely out, or at least still limited by his injury, it’s tough to see the Jayhawks competing with this Baylor team in Foster Pavilion, where the Bears have gone 13-2 this season.
College Basketball Predictions Today: Baylor -4.5 (play to -5.5)
Illinois at Wisconsin
Wisconsin is coming off a February to forget as they went 2-6 during the past month, and what was once seen as a potential two or three-seed in the tournament is now on the five-seed line per Bracket Matrix. Greg Gard is on the hot seat, Badgers fans are restless, and the team is wilting to the finish line as they’re ranked 336th in Haslametrics’ momentum rating. I believe all of this sets up a tremendous buy-low opportunity.
While the blame game makes its rounds for this Wisconsin team, the truth is much of their regression is due to a brutal cold streak shooting the basketball. During February, Wisconsin shot just 28.8% from 3-point range, which ranked 330th in the country. Heading into the month, they had shot 36.8% (46th), and we can project some positive regression moving forward.
That positive regression should come against a reeling Illinois defense that ranked 270th in adjusted defensive efficiency in February, allowing opponents to shoot 42.1% from 3 (350th). The Illini have allowed 88 points per game over their last four outings, and they haven’t exactly seen a murderer’s row of elite scoring units with Maryland, Penn State, Iowa, and Minnesota.
The Badgers should find a lot of success working the ball into the post, where Illinois allows opponents to operate at a 97th percentile rate. Wisconsin is in the 93rd percentile in post-up efficiency and the 95th percentile in frequency per Synergy, so forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl could put up some big numbers in this game.
Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Illinois since 2019, going 0-6 in their last six tries. That means many of the seniors who will be celebrated in this, the final home game of the season, have never beaten the Illini. That adds extra motivation for the Badgers in this game with the Illini potentially caught looking ahead a bit – they host Purdue on Tuesday in a crucial game between the top two teams in the conference, and the Illini will look to avenge a prior loss.
Big Ten teams have gone 85-36 straight up (70.2%) and 69-52 ATS (57%) in conference play this season, and Wisconsin has fared much better at home – five of their six losses in February were on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois has gone just 4-5 on the road this season and ranks 161st in adjusted defensive efficiency away from home. The Badgers right the ship with a huge home win here.
College Basketball Predictions Today: Wisconsin -2.5 (play to -3.5)
Marquette at Creighton
In one of the biggest games on a slate full of electric matchups, Creighton hosts Marquette in a battle between ranked Big East teams. The Bluejays are seeking revenge in this contest after losing by 5 on the road to the Golden Eagles earlier this season. Creighton will have the support of an electric home crowd in a White Out game that’s also the team’s senior day.
Creighton boasts one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency, and the Bluejays have plenty of schematic advantages over this Marquette defense. Creighton puts constant pressure on the rim, ranking in the 99th percentile per Synergy, and the Golden Eagles are in just the 63rd percentile defending the rim this season. ShotQuality grades them out far worse than that, though, at 343rd in rim defense.
Ryan Kalkbrenner was held to just 8 points on 3-7 shooting in that first matchup, but I’d expect a far greater offensive impact this time around for the 7’1” center who averages 17.1 points per game. If Marquette is forced to bring help into the paint, that will put further strain on a perimeter defense that already allows an above-average rate of open 3-point shots according to ShotQuality. That spells trouble against Creighton, who boasts four players with 40+ 3-point makes this season.
Offensively, Marquette will face a Creighton defense that relies on its “Kalk drop” method. Kalkbrenner drops off pick-and-roll sets to protect the rim, affording opponents opportunities in the mid-range. As such, they rank 51st in protecting the rim but just 268th defending in mid-range per ShotQuality. The Golden Eagles can find success in that in-between area, but it’s not their bread and butter as they rank dead last in mid-range attempt rate.
Marquette could also be without Tyler Kolek in this game, which would drastically change the handicap. Kolek suffered an oblique injury against Providence earlier this week and his status is very much in doubt. Kolek is one of the best playmakers in the country, leading all players with 7.6 assists per game. Needless to say, Marquette would take a huge offensive hit if he’s out.
The Golden Eagles won the first matchup between these teams on the back of 18 offensive rebounds. I don’t expect that to happen again as they’re just 244th in offensive rebounding and Creighton ranks 15th in opponents’ second-chance conversion rate per Haslametrics. I love this spot for the Bluejays regardless of Kolek’s status, and I’d bet them up to -7.5 if he’s out.
College Basketball Predictions Today: Creighton -4.5 (play to -5.5 if Kolek plays, -7.5 if he’s out)
Michigan State at Purdue
It’s incredibly rare to get Michigan State as a double-digit underdog. How rare? The Spartans have only been an underdog of 10+ points three times in the past decade. It’s been that type of season for Michigan State, though. One of the championship favorites before the season, the Spartans have been incredibly inconsistent, recently dropping two home games to Iowa and Ohio State in embarrassing fashion.
Michigan State now sits firmly on the bubble, and they need to capture some late-season magic to make the tournament. A road trip to play Purdue won’t be easy, but it presents a massive opportunity for Tom Izzo, who has had six days to prepare for this game.
Purdue has all but clinched the Big Ten at this point with a 14-3 conference record standing two games ahead of second-place Illinois. The Boilermakers could get caught looking ahead here with a road trip to play Illinois on Tuesday.
Aside from the situational elements, there are schematic reasons to like this matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans spit in the face of analytics, ranking 230th in ShotQuality’s rim & 3 rate and 10th in mid-range frequency. That might not be a bad thing in this game, though. Purdue funnels opponents to the mid-range with Zach Edey dropping deep into the paint, and they allow the 10th-highest rate of mid-range shots.
Michigan State has talented guards who can operate in that in-between area. Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard combine for just under 30 points and 8 assists per game, and the senior tandem has played in plenty of big games. Malik Hall has also been trending up lately after a tough midseason swoon, averaging 20 points over the Spartans’ last five games.
Defending against Zach Edey is a tall task for any defense (no pun intended), but the Spartans have a puncher’s chance, ranking in the 80th percentile in rim defense per Synergy. Michigan State is also 50th defending post-up plays per ShotQuality, and I expect Izzo to have a strong defensive game plan here.
Ultimately, I’m buying low on Michigan State in what should be a max-effort spot for the Spartans. Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Spartans go on the road and get this win as the more prepared, more motivated team. Plug your nose and back Sparty in a rare spot as a double-digit underdog.
College Basketball Predictions Today: Michigan State +10.5
