It’s time to continue our college basketball betting predictions series by providing our Arizona State-USC picks, predictions, preview and more.
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Arizona State-USC Pick, Predictions and Preview
On Thursday night, the USC Trojans host the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Pac-12 showdown. The Trojans, who were picked to finish second in the conference in the preseason Pac-12 media poll, have had a disappointing season. However, they seem to have turned a corner in recent games, as they’ve been playing some of their best basketball lately.
USC has won three of its last five games, and the two losses were not particularly bad – they lost to third-place Colorado in double overtime and second-place Washington State by just three points in a game that they led by as many as 12 points. Since February 2nd, the Trojans have improved considerably, ranking 49th in BartTorvik’s T-rank compared to their season-long ranking of 86th.
Will that recent surge in improved play be enough to cover an 8.5-point spread against Arizona State? Let’s dive into the matchup.
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When USC Has the Ball
It’s no coincidence that USC’s surge in play has directly coincided with the return from injury of star freshman guard Isaiah Collier. An expected lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, Collier has averaged 20.5 points in his seven games since returning to the lineup. Perhaps most importantly, he has a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio in that span, nearly double the 1.1 ratio that he started the season with.
Collier is joined in the backcourt by senior guard Boogie Ellis, a dynamic scorer averaging 18.6 points in home games this season. Collier and Ellis should be able to score at will against a Sun Devils defense that ranks in the 18th percentile defending the rim per Synergy. Overall, Arizona State is allowing opponents to shoot 55.6% on 2-pointers since the beginning of January, which ranks 341st in the country.
When Arizona State Has the Ball
There’s not a ton to love about the Arizona State offense this season as they rank 213th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Most of the team’s offensive damage comes in transition as they rank 79th in adjusted tempo, but they’ve generated just 0.832 points per possession (PPP) in the half-court this season, ranking in the 12th percentile in the country.
Arizona State will struggle to convert shots at the rim where the Trojans rank in the 83rd percentile in defensive efficiency per Synergy. The Sun Devils don’t have the size to match up on the interior as USC ranks 7th in average height while Arizona State ranks 93rd per KenPom. The Trojans also allow the 79th-fewest open 3-pointers in the country per ShotQuality.
The Verdict
In Arizona State’s win over USC earlier this season, the Trojans were missing both Collier and Ellis, and they ran into a ton of issues as a result, shooting 26.7% from 3 and committing a ghastly 22 turnovers. With both star guards in tow for this rematch, I expect much different results and the market agrees with USC laying 8.5 points here.
The Sun Devils rank ahead of USC in the Pac-12 standings, but they’ve been lucky on the whole, ranking 34th in KenPom’s luck ratings. With USC surging and Arizona State going 3-6 since the beginning of February, I can only look to lay the points with the Trojans in this game. USC is also a great ML parlay piece if there are other favorites on the board that you like.
Arizona State-USC Pick: USC -8.5
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