Featuring some Rick Pitino insight, it’s time to continue our best CBB bets today series by looking at several games on Sunday, providing odds, picks and predictions in the process.
For more college basketball picks and predictions, make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools!
Best CBB Bets Today
SMU at South Florida
South Florida came away with another win over UTSA on Wednesday, extending the longest win streak in program history to 12 games. There’s no question that first-year head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim has done an excellent job turning around this program, but I believe we’re nearing the top of the market on the Bulls. On Sunday, they host an SMU team that’s poised to give them a huge challenge.
SMU possesses a very physical defense that ranks top 25 in block and steal rate and 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Mustangs also rank 10th in eFG% allowed. SMU presses opponents at a top-25 rate, and that will particularly create problems for South Florida, which ranks in the 8th percentile on offense against the press per Synergy.
South Florida is due for considerable three-point shooting regression as they’re hitting from deep at a 36.1% clip, which ranks 59th in the country, despite ranking outside the top 200 in open 3 rate per ShotQuality. SMU will challenge South Florida’s shooters all day as the Mustangs are allowing opponents to hit just 30.2% of their 3-pointers, which ranks 22nd, and they rank 12th in open 3 rate allowed.
SMU’s offense isn’t quite as dominant as its defense, but the Mustangs should be able to eat on the offensive glass in this game. SMU ranks 7th in offensive rebound rate while South Florida ranks 211th in defensive rebound rate. Expect the Mustangs to create extra possessions for their offense throughout the game.
These teams are on opposite ends of the luck spectrum as South Florida has been the 23rd-luckiest team per KenPom while SMU ranks 328th. The Bulls are 9-2 in games decided by six or fewer points while the Mustangs are 3-5. SMU has also played a much tougher schedule, especially in non-conference play. Models have this game priced closer to SMU -3, and I’m happy to take the value on the Mustangs as the significantly better team in this game.
Best CBB Bets Today: SMU -1.5
Creighton at St. John’s
St. John’s is coming off a much-needed win over Georgetown on Wednesday, but don’t let that distract you from what has been a brutal stretch of basketball for the Red Storm. Heading into that game, the Johnnies had lost five of six games. In four of those five losses, they held a lead in the first half and melted down after halftime. To call it an uninspired run would be an understatement, and legendary coach Rick Pitino called it the “most unenjoyable experience of my lifetime.”
Meanwhile, Creighton is coming off a court-storming home win over #1 ranked UConn on Tuesday in what was perhaps their biggest regular season win in program history. Their shooters were unconscious in the game, hitting 50% of their three-pointers. I believe all of this sets up for an enormous letdown game on Sunday against a St. John’s team that is running out of time to make a run at the NCAA Tournament.
Looking at the matchup, St. John’s can tip the scales in their favor with their excellent offensive rebounding. The Red Storm work hard on the offensive glass, ranking 5th in offensive rebound rate and first in potential points off second chances per Haslametrics. Joel Soriano is a physical presence on the interior, and he went toe-to-toe with Ryan Kalkbrenner in these teams’ first matchup, helping the Johnnies win the rebounding battle overall.
I was also encouraged to see Jordan Dingle produce his best game of the season for St. John’s on Wednesday. The senior transfer from Penn is a highly talented scorer who has struggled for much of this season, and he and Pitino haven’t always seen eye to eye. However, Dingle finished with 22 points on 8-13 shooting last time out, and while it came against a bad Georgetown team, I’m hopeful Pitino gives him more reign over the offense moving forward.
Ultimately, I’m plugging my nose and buying the spot here. Arizona State upset Washington State at home on Saturday as 5.5-point underdogs in essentially the same spot as this one with Wazzu coming off one of their biggest wins in program history. I expect Pitino to have a strong gameplan in a peak desperation spot for the Johnnies while a slow start for Creighton off an emotionally charged win over UConn could bury them in this game.
Best CBB Bets Today: St. John’s +2.5
Minnesota at Nebraska
Nebraska finally got their first road win in conference play on Wednesday, and now they get to return home where they’ve been dominant this season, going 16-1 straight up and 13-4 ATS. The Cornhuskers have also crushed Big Ten opposition in Lincoln, going 7-0 at home in conference play with those seven wins coming by an average margin of 14.1 points. They would have covered this 6.5-point spread in six of those seven games.
In this matchup, the Huskers draw a Minnesota team that already beat them this season. In that game, Nebraska shot a ghastly 5-18 from 3-point range (27.8%). That alone should positively regress as they shoot 36.2% from 3 this season. This Minnesota defense is also ripe for the picking as the Gophers allow unguarded jump shots at an 80th percentile rate and rank outside the top 260 in defending catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s per ShotQuality.
Minnesota also benefitted from an aggressive home whistle in that prior matchup, getting to the line an eye-popping 29 times. Nebraska ranks 30th in defensive free throw rate allowed, so we shouldn’t see that repeated on their home court. Multiple Huskers players were in foul trouble in that earlier game, including Brice Williams who fouled out.
I expect head coach Fred Hoiberg to have a strong offensive game plan here. His offense hinges on motion, and their constant cutting should work well against a Minnesota defense that ranks 349th in defending cuts per ShotQuality’s metrics. The Huskers rank in the 91st percentile in offensive possessions with cutting per Synergy.
When Minnesota is on offense, they rely on a heavy dose of isolation – they’re in the 91st percentile. Nebraska is 2nd defending isolation sets per ShotQuality, and they allow opponents to take just 32.7% of their shots at the rim, which ranks in the 6th percentile. Expect a heavy dose of tough contested jumpers for the Gophers in this game.
The Golden Gophers have been exceeding market expectations all season with a 23-3 ATS record, the best in the country. However, in this revenge opportunity for Nebraska, I’m happy to fade a Minnesota team overdue for an ATS loss. The Huskers continue to defend home court with a dominant win on Sunday.
Best CBB Bets Today: Nebraska -6.5
