An abbreviated appetizer awaits bettors today before the madness of a full College Basketball Tuesday. Despite the reduced number of games, a few spots stand out. Let’s dive into the odds to identify the best college basketball expert picks for Monday, Jan. 30, starting with the Baylor Bears
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College Basketball Expert Picks & Odds
College Basketball Odds: Baylor vs. Texas: Baylor +3.5
After starting Big 12 play with a 0-3 record, Baylor has won their last six games, including their SEC crossover game against Arkansas. Meanwhile, Texas been far less consistent in recent games. The Longhorns are just 2-2 in their last four with losses for Iowa State and Tennessee. While Texas does possess home court advantage, Baylor still holds enough firepower to cover this spread.
Stylistically, both offenses exploit the weaknesses of their opponent. Baylor ranks 208th in 2pt defense, while Texas ranks 14th in 2pt%. Similarly, Baylor shoots the 22nd most three’s in the country and they rank 82nd in 3pt%. Meanwhile Texas ranks 134th in 3pt defense. Interestingly, Texas holds this interior scoring advantage, despite ceding height to Baylor. Overall, the Bears rank 105th in effective height, while Texas ranks 275th. Texas also ranks 308th in three point and rim rate, which points to them hitting low quality two point shots at an unsustainable rate.
College Basketball Expert Picks: With Texas due for some negative regression and Baylor healthier than they’ve been all season, look for Baylor to cover in this game.
College Basketball Odds: Virginia vs. Syracuse: Virginia -5
An interesting ACC clash, Virginia will look to improve on their second place standing in the conference, while Syracuse battles for tournament consideration altogether. With both teams healthy, Syracuses top advantage here remains home court. With that said, Virginia holds most edges, including strength of schedule, efficiency, and stylistics here.
Digging into that last point, Syracuse runs their well documented 2-3 zone defense. Typically, teams that shoot and rebound can disrupt the zone. Unfortunately for Syracuse, Virginia is particularly suited to shooting over the top. Virginia ranks ninth in three point percentage, with Kihei Clark, Reece Beekman, Armaan Franklin, and Isaac McNeely all shooting at least 39% from beyond the arc. Furthermore, Virginia excels at interior defense, which should aid in the defense of Jesse Edwards.
College Basketball Expert Picks: Ultimately, teams like Virginia generally give Syracuse problems, explaining the line movement here. With that said, the gap in talent still warrants a play at the current line.
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