College Basketball rolls on with a full slate of games on Friday, Jan. 20. This piece will break down the top college basketball picks on the board ahead of tonight’s games, including a play on a game with massive implications in the Mountain West.
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College Basketball Expert Picks and Odds
College Basketball Betting Prediction: Richmond +1 (vs. VCU)
A game with massive implications across the A-10, VCU travels to Richmond as a one point favorite. VCU currently leads the A-10 with a 5-1 record, while Richmond will look to make a jump here after starting conference play 4-2. This game provides an interesting clash of styles all the way down to schedule. VCU currently ranks 86th overall, according to KenPom, with the 224th most difficult schedule. Meanwhile, Richmond ranks 104th overall with the 195th most difficult schedule.
On paper, VCU has a massive defensive advantage at first glance. The team ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, but that comes as a result of turnovers created. VCU ranks fourth in the country at forcing turnovers. However, this doesn’t match up well against Richmond. The Spiders rank inside the top 100 in turnovers committed, behind their experience. In the half court, Richmond actually 93rd in opponents 2pt% and 178th in 3pt%. This poses a massive problem against one of the better shooting teams in the conference. Richmond takes the 40th most three pointers in the country and makes them as a top 100 clip. As long as Richmond can limit their turnovers, the more experienced home team should get the job done here.
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College Basketball Expert Picks: Toledo -3.5 (vs. Buffalo)
An important game in the MAC, Toledo will look to gain some ground on Kent State with a win over Buffalo. Already the better team by multiple metrics, Toledo will likely take money throughout the day due to a key injury on Buffalo. Laquill Hardnett missed Buffalo’s most recent game with a hyper-extended knee and looks doubtful to give it a go here. Buffalo already ranks 342nd in D1 experience and now loses one of their veterans. Meanwhile, Toledo ranks 51st in D1 experience with multiple matchup advantages.
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Speaking to those advantages, both teams play horrific defense and rank outside the top 240. However, Toledo ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, while Buffalo checks in at 274th. The primary advantage comes in the interior, where Toledo ranks 68th and Buffalo defends the post with the 269th ranked 2pt%. This is interesting, considering Buffalo has an advantage in terms of effective height. Regardless, Toledo stands out as the more talented team. Expect this number to move thoughout the day, making it one to look at early.
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College Basketball Expert Picks: New Mexico -2 (vs. Boise State)
Currently sitting atop the Mountain West standings, Boise State hits the road to face the 17-2 New Mexico Lobos as a two point underdog. Boise State has taken some money since open, making this one to potentially wait on. However, New Mexico has some stylistic advantages on top of home court that should make a difference.
Overall, New Mexico remains the more balanced team, ranking 38th in offensive efficiency and 61st in on defense. Boise State comes in slightly more tilted to defense. The Broncos rank 98th on offense and 11th on defense. However, New Mexico comes in with multipe ways to score. This team actually ranks inside the top 100 in 2pt%, 3pt%, and three pointers attempted per game. Boise State has played solid basketball of late, knocking off Utah State, UNLV, and Nevada in confernce play. However, this team also has losses to South Dakota State, Charlotte, and Santa Clara on their profile. Now there’s a chance to buy low on New Mexico as the home team here.
