Today’s college basketball slate is short on top-25 matchups, but it still has a number of games with massive implications, including a battle between disappointing ACC squads. Let’s take a look at the best college basketball picks for Monday, Jan. 23.
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College Basketball Expert Picks and Odds
College Basketball Betting Prediction: Wisconsin +2.5 (vs. Northwestern)
This is a rescheduled game, and it will be Northwestern’s first game after an extended layoff due to illnesses within the team. Northwestern presumably hasn’t practiced much and may not even see all of their starters take the floor. At this point, it is impossible to know who will suit up for Northwestern. However, Wisconsin has a clear preparation advantage.
Stylistically, this is also a chance to buy low on Wisconsin, who played multiple games without Tyler Wahl to start conference play. Wisconsin ranks 171st in offensive efficiency, which is actually better than Northwestern’s 202nd-ranked offense. However, Wisconsin has lagged on the interior, ranking 296th in 2-point efficiency and 297th in rebounding. Both of these numbers should regress positively with Wahl back on the floor. Together, the improved health on Wisconsin and lack thereof on Northwestern make the Badgers a value against the spread here. It should be noted that Wisconsin has already taken money, making this a wager to secure early.
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College Basketball Expert Picks: Duke +2.5 (vs. Virginia Tech)
Two wildly underachieving teams in the ACC meet in Blacksburg as Virginia Tech hosts Duke as a 2.5-point favorite. In fact, Virginia Tech has lost each of their last seven games, while Duke sits at 4-3 in that span. Fortunately, both teams have gotten a little healthier of late. Duke returned Jeremy Roach, who handles point guard duties. Virginia Tech got back Hunter Cattoor, who functions as the team’s top shooter.
Duke has a definitive height advantage in this game. The Blue Devils rank third in effective height and rank eighth in rebounding, compared to Virginia Tech’s 127th and 123rd rankings, respectively. This means the Hokies will likely rely on their shooting in this matchup. Duke ranks 11th in 3-point defense on the year, making this a difficult matchup for Virginia Tech. With Kyle Filipowski, Dariq Whitehead, Mark Mitchell and Ryan Young all standing at least 6-foot-7, Duke’s size should win out in this matchup.
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College Basketball Expert Picks: New Mexico +3.5 (vs. Nevada)
This is a potential lookahead to the postseason in the Mountain West as New Mexico travels to Nevada as a 3.5-point underdog in a game with a 146.5 total. Both teams are relatively healthy here; Nevada lost K.J. Hymes earlier this year, but he hasn’t played in a while now. Both teams remain close in the KenPom rankings, with New Mexico coming in at 44th and Nevada at 50th. However, Nevada has played the 29th-most difficult schedule, while New Mexico ranks 135th.
With that said, New Mexico still appears to have numerous advantages. The Lobos are 34th in offensive efficiency, while Nevada checks in at 89th. New Mexico also ranks 52nd in defensive efficiency and Nevada 99th. Nevada sits at 81st in effective height, and New Mexico is 150th. With that said, New Mexico still has a rebounding advantage, ranking 31st compared to Nevada’s 212th. New Mexico also has edges over Nevada in both turnovers created and turnovers committed. Finally, the strength of schedule discrepancy largely comes down to non-conference play. Both teams are 5-2 within conference play, pointing to this matchup being closer than the point spread currently indicates.
