The college basketball conference championship slate surges forward with some big-time programs in action. In this article, I’ll provide my best bets for the slate. Let’s continue our college basketball picks series by highlighting our BYU-Texas Tech prediction, Ohio State-Iowa prediction and more!
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Conference championship week is one of the best of the entire calendar year for sports betting. There are hundreds of games this week, all with postseason stakes, which means plenty of investment opportunities. I’m providing three write-ups for Thursday’s games in this article.
Lines will always move overnight, so I’m providing the number I’d play each game up to. Be sure to have multiple sportsbooks available so you can shop for the best available line. Let’s find some winners while making our college basketball picks.
College Basketball Picks and Best Bets Today
Big-12: No. 5. BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Mark Pope’s BYU team has been one of the best surprises in the country this season. Before the season, the media picked the Cougars to finish second-to-last in the Big 12, and they far exceeded those expectations, finishing 22-9 overall and 10-8 in conference play. After its tournament win over UCF on Wednesday, the Cougars are now 20-12 ATS (62.5%) this season, the second-best clip in the Big 12.
BYU’s opponent on Thursday is a Texas Tech team that got the best of it earlier this season. The Red Raiders trailed by 16 points at halftime in Lubbock, storming back on the heels of a career-high 32 points from Pop Isaacs. Texas Tech shot 50% from 3-point range in that game, and I’d expect them to fall back down to earth here away from home. The Raiders benefit from the best home-court advantage in the country per KenPom, but their production drops away from Lubbock.
A massive issue for the Red Raiders here will be the presumed absence of big man Warren Washington, who finished with 19 points and nine rebounds in that win over BYU. Washington has been out for two weeks, and head coach Grant McCasland was noncommittal as to his status, saying, “we’re just taking it practice by practice” and “it’s too hard to tell” when asked about his status.
BYU’s defense has deficiencies at the rim, ranking in the 26th percentile for defending post-ups per Synergy. Center Ali Khalifa is fasting for Ramadan, and while his performance on Tuesday while fasting was impressive, it’s fair to wonder if that’s sustainable. However, as you can see below, Texas Tech’s ability to attack the rim declines significantly without Washington in the lineup.
Offensively, the Cougars launch three-pointers at the second-highest clip in the country, which could create problems against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are due for regression in their shooting defense, ranking 271st in open 3 rate allowed. Opponents have hit just 31.4% of unguarded 3-pointers against Texas Tech this season, which ranks 17th in the country per Synergy, and BYU is the perfect team to exploit that looming regression.
The ShotQuality model makes the spread for this game BYU -11.6. I probably wouldn’t go that far, but I believe we’re getting tremendous value on the Cougars here, especially with Washington being very limited in the best-case scenario. With BYU’s shooters already acclimated to the courts in Kansas City, expect a fast start for the Cougars on their way to a decisive win.
BYU-Texas Tech Prediction: BYU -1.5 (play to -3)
Big East: No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 4 Seton Hall
As Kylo Ren said in Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens – “I know what I have to do, but I don’t know if I have the strength to do it.”
I’ve been staring down this Quarterfinals matchup since the Big East bracket was finalized. I bet St. John’s on a -6 line on February 18. The Red Storm led by as many as 19 points in the first half, and as they have far too often this season, St. John’s loosened their grip on the game, ceding a massive halftime comeback in an eventual Seton Hall win. St. John’s now gets its chance at double revenge against the Pirates.
Since that February 18th game, the Red Storm has ripped off five straight wins and ranks 15th in the country in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank over that span. It’s a small sample size, to be sure, and three of those five wins came against Georgetown (twice) and DePaul, the two cellar dwellers in the Big East. However, the Johnnies did beat Creighton handily in that stretch. They have clearly turned a corner as Rick Pitino has pressed the right buttons after a public meltdown following that Seton Hall loss.
Senior guard Jordan Dingle, a Penn transfer, has finally found his rhythm, scoring 15.4 ppg in his last five games. Along with fellow senior Dannis Jenkins, who had 17 points in both games against Seton Hall, the Red Storm has the veteran, dynamic guard play that always wins this time of year.
Schematically, I believe St. John’s has the rim protection to limit Seton Hall’s offense. The Pirates rank 3rd in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics, and the Johnnies are in the 82nd percentile defending at the rim per Synergy. St. John’s can also generate plenty of second-chance opportunities on offense – they rank sixth in offensive rebound rate, while the Pirates are 292nd in potential points allowed off second chances.
Ultimately, I’m backing Pitino with his elite tournament resume coming through in this spot. A win here would help St. John’s secure its place in the NCAA Tournament as they’re firmly on the bubble, and I expect Pitino’s team to come through here.
Best College Basketball Picks: St. John’s -4 (play to -6)
Big Ten: No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Iowa (Final College Basketball Picks Game)
After a miserable start to the season, Ohio State fired former head coach Chris Holtmann on Valentine’s Day. Since then, the Buckeyes are 5-1 straight up and ATS. Interim head coach Jake Diebler has tweaked rotations and made some changes to the team’s identity, significantly improving both ends of the floor.
The Buckeyes felt like they were asleep at the wheel under Holtmann, and they ranked 308th in adjusted tempo before he was fired. Diebler has improved the team’s pace, as they’ve been in the top 200 since Valentine’s Day. Previously an offense that generated points in transition at a fourth-percentile rate, the Buckeyes rank in the 87th percentile in that aspect under Diebler.
That improved pace should play very well against an Iowa defense whose ability to get back in transition has been its Achilles heel – the Hawkeyes are in the 13th percentile defending in transition per Synergy. Ohio State had zero fast break points in their loss to Iowa earlier this season – I’d be shocked if that happens again here.
Mind you, Iowa’s half-court defense isn’t good either, ranking in the 26th percentile. They’re especially poor defending guards in the pick-and-roll, and I expect Ohio State’s leading scorer, Bruce Thornton, to have a strong game here.
Iowa’s offense has surged in recent weeks, and they’ve been 13th in adjusted efficiency since the beginning of February. However, the Hawkeyes rarely shoot threes, ranking 349th in 3-point attempt rate in that stretch, and Ohio State possesses an elite rim defense that ranks in the 94th percentile per Synergy.
Finally, I love how Diebler has extended the Buckeyes’ rotation to more heavily feature freshmen guards Devin Royal and Scottie Middleton. That scoring depth could undoubtedly come in handy in what I expect to be an up-and-down, high-scoring game.
I believe Ohio State’s strong form under Diebler will travel to Minneapolis with the team making a run, and it starts with a win over Iowa here.
Best Ohio State-Iowa Prediction: Ohio State -2 (play to -3)
Best of luck if choosing to use our college basketball picks!
