College Basketball rolls on with a full slate of games on Thursday, Jan. 19. This piece will break down the top college basketball picks on the board ahead of tonight’s games, including a play on the total for a Big Ten matchup between Indiana and Illinois.
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College Basketball Picks and Betting Odds
College Basketball Picks: Indiana-Illinois Over 144.5
Indiana hits the road to face Illinois as a 6-point underdog in a game with a 144.5 total. This matchup features two opponents that prefer to push the tempo. The league average for possessions per game sits around 70.0. Meanwhile, Indiana checks in at 72.4 possessions per game and Illinois at 72.8. Both of these numbers point to the over.
Both teams have solid defensive efficiency numbers as well. Illinois is 10th and Indiana ranks 63rd, which may point towards the under. However, Indiana continues to deal with injuries to Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson. Thompson’s injury in particular has been awful for Indiana’s defense. The team ranks 37th in interior defense, but it has been slaughtered by opponents inside since Thompson departed. Unfortunately, Illinois also has the size with Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja to exploit this. As a team, Indiana has allowed at least 80 points in seven of its last nine games. The only two opponents who failed to hit this mark were Kennesaw State and Wisconsin without Tyler Wahl.
On top of Indiana’s defensive weaknesses, Illinois also ranks 27th in offensive efficiency. The Illini have scored at least 70 points in six of their last seven. The only game they failed to reach this mark came against Northwestern’s 15th-ranked defense. Finally, while Illinois plays solid defense, Indiana still has the offense to score. Trayce Jackson-Davis will command attention in the post, while Jalen Hood-Schifino, Tamar Bates, Miller Kopp and Trey Galloway all shoot at least 40% from 3. Indiana has still scored at least 65 points in four of its last five games, despite the injuries.
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College Basketball Picks: Oakland-IUPUI: Oakland -11.5
Oakland faces IUPUI as an 11.5-point favorite. The Grizzlies are one of the better teams in the Horizon League despite their 7-12 record. Oakland got beat up during a brutal non-conference schedule, but it is actually 5-3 in league play. Conversely, IUPUI is 0-8 in league play, with its only wins this season coming against Franklin, Spalding and Texas A&M Commerce.
Making matters worse, IUPUI has been without three legitimate contributors in Bryce Monroe, Daylan Hamilton and Ahmad Jarrad. Don’t expect injury reporting in this conference, but at least two of these players should miss today’s game, if not all three. With IUPUI also ranking outside the top 350 in offensive and defensive efficiency, Oakland has every stylistic advantage here.
College Basketball Picks: Charlotte-Middle Tennessee State: Charlotte +2
In a Conference USA showdown, Charlotte travels to Middle Tennessee State in a rematch as a 2-point underdog. In the previous matchup, Charlotte defeated Middle Tennessee State 82-67 at home. With Charlotte now a slight underdog, it appears books haven’t quite adjusted to the team’s strength.
From a metrics perspective, Charlotte has almost every advantage. It ranks 50th in offensive efficiency and 84th in defensive efficiency. Middle Tennessee State ranks 173rd in offensive efficiency and 134th in defensive efficiency. Charlotte is also the far superior team from a shooting perspective. The 49ers rank 19th in effective field goal percentage, while Middle Tennessee State ranks 144th in interior defense and 318th in perimeter defense. Middle Tennessee State does force turnovers at the 44th-highest rate, but Charlotte takes care of the ball offensive, ranking 30th in turnovers committed.
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College Basketball Picks: Rice-North Texas: Rice +10
Rice travels to North Texas to face the number two team in Conference USA. These teams have not met this year, but both have played well to start. North Texas sits at 15-4, with its only two conference losses coming to top-ranked Florida Atlantic. Rice is 13-5, losing to only Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State by single digits within conference play.
While North Texas is the superior team by most metrics, Rice is undervalued in this spot. This game features two drastically different paces, with North Texas averaging 60.6 possessions per game and Rice coming in at 75.4. Despite the differences, North Texas is more likely to draw Rice to its style of play, pointing towards an under and making it more difficult to cover double-digit point spreads. Additionally, Rice ranks 73rd offensively, with elite shooting. The Owls are 21st in interior offense and 99th in 3-point percentage while shooting them at the 74th-highest rate in the country. An elite shooting team in a slow game environment, Rice should be able to find the backdoor, if not keep this game close throughout.
