After a thrilling weekend loaded with basketball action, March Madness won’t return until Thursday. Those eager to get their Sweet 16 bets down early should do so quickly before the best numbers come off the board. The Sweet 16 odds point to value on these bets for Kansas State-Michigan State and Texas-Xavier at Caesars. For more Sweet 16 predictions and March Madness bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools.
Sweet 16 Odds & Predictions | March Madness
Kansas State-Michigan State Prediction: Is the Big Ten Overrated?
The No. 7 Michigan State Spartans are favored over the No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats just overcame the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats behind a stunning performance from Markquis Nowell. They did so despite the books favoring John Calipari’s program. Kansas State’s gauntlet will continue with another storied coach, Tom Izzo, on the other side of the floor come Thursday.
I came into the tournament planning to back the Big 12 at almost every opportunity. The conference is down to just two teams, No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Kansas State, but it has met expectations thus far. Only the SEC has more teams remaining with No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Tennessee and No. 8 Arkansas. Meanwhile, the Big Ten is down to just No. 7 Michigan State — No. 1 Purdue, No. 4 Indiana, No. 7 Northwestern, No. 8 Maryland, No. 8 Iowa, No. 9 Illinois and No. 10 Penn State have already been dispatched.
It’s fair to wonder whether the Big Ten was overrepresented in this year’s tournament. The conference’s best team, Purdue, met its end at the hands of No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, whose conference had yet to win a game in the big dance. The Big Ten is 1-1 against the Big 12 and 0-3 against the SEC through the first two rounds of the tournament.
Despite Kansas and Baylor suffering early-round exits, I’m not adjusting my priors for the Big 12. Baylor’s roster was ill-constructed for a matchup with the bulky Creighton Bluejays. Kansas’ one-point loss to a tough SEC opponent in Arkansas isn’t egregious, especially when compared to what the Big Ten winner did in the opening round. Kansas State has suffered just one non-conference loss all season compared to three for Michigan State. Let’s ride the off-market +118 (45.9%) at Caesars that’s worse than FiveThirtyEight’s projection (46%), BartTorvik’s projection (51%) and Pinnacle’s odds (47.4%).
Kansas State-Michigan State Sweet 16 Prediction & Bet: Kansas State Moneyline (+118) at Caesars
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Texas-Xavier Prediction: Can Longhorns Keep Winning?
The No. 2 Texas Longhorns scored a solid win over the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions in the second round. They’ll now face the No. 3 Xavier Musketeers in a game the books expect them to win — Texas opened as a 4-point favorite for Friday night’s game. Texas’ interim coach, Rodney Terry, has rallied his troops to a six-game winning streak, including two wins over Kansas.
Xavier barely made it to the Sweet 16. They narrowly beat No. 14 Kennesaw State in the opening round before blowing out the No. 11 Pitt Panthers. Like Texas, Xavier is yet to face a single-digit seed in this year’s tournament. But unlike Texas, Xavier did not enter this year’s tournament on a high note — the Musketeers got blown out by the Marquette Golden Eagles in the Big East tournament final.
Xavier’s non-conference resume raises some serious concerns. The program has three non-conference losses this year, against Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. Those are all tough teams, but Texas is tougher. Although Xavier scored a 10-point win over West Virginia, a Big 12 school, the Longhorns did a better job of taking care of business against them — they beat the Mountaineers by a combined total of 42 points across their two matchups. Texas suffered only two non-conference losses this year, one to Tennessee and one to Illinois in overtime.
Bettors should place an off-market moneyline wager for Friday’s Texas-Xavier game. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Texas at -181 (64.4%) to win on Friday night. DraftKings has Texas all the way down at -205 (67.2%), but Caesars has Texas at only -178 (64%). It’s a marginal edge, but the market itself appears to be underrating Texas. FiveThirtyEight’s model has Texas at 70% to win outright. BartTorvik has Texas at exactly 64%. Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
Texas-Xavier Sweet 16 Prediction & Bet: Texas Moneyline (-178) at Caesars
