Let’s dive into Saturday’s Final Four betting predictions, odds, picks and more, including our North Carolina State-Purdue pick and Alabama-UConn prediction.
For more college basketball picks and Final Four betting predictions, make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools!
Final Four Betting Predictions, Odds, Picks & More: April 6
NC State-Purdue Odds
NC State: +365 | Purdue: -490
NC State: +9.5: -112 | Purdue: -9.5: -108
Over 146.5: -110 | Under 146.5: -110
When: 6:09 p.m. ET
March Madness Odds via FanDuel
North Carolina State-Purdue Pick & Final Four Prediction
Now riding a nine-game winning streak since the start of the ACC Tournament, NC State knocked off Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and Duke to reach this point. More impressively, the Wolfpack have been underdogs in seven of those nine games. Likewise, Purdue reached the Final Four with wins over Grambling State, Utah State, Gonzaga, Tennessee.
As has been the case in most of NC State’s recent games, the Wolfpack will be at severe disadvantages in most areas of the court. NC State ranks 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 92nd on defense. Conversely, Purdue comes in ranked third on offense and 16th on defense. They also hold a massive height advantage in this matchup.
Starting with that area of the floor, Zach Edey presents a unique mismatch for most opponents with his 7-4 stature. NC State ranks 105th in effective height and 129th in interior defense. NC State has received improved play from DJ Burns Jr., Mohamed Diarra, and Ben Middlebrooks of late, but none of these players stand taller than 6-10. Aside from Edey’s elite rim protection and 67th ranked block percentage, he draws more fouls than any other player in the country.
Even if teams dedicate extra resources to Edey, Purdue has multiple ways to win. This team ranks number one in three point percentage with Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis, Cam Heide, and Myles Colvin all shooting north of 40% from three. Even their weakest link Lance Jones shoots 35.5% from beyond the arc. NC State ranks 220th in three point defense, creating quite the pretzel for this team. NC State is also due for negative three point regression defensively. Duke shot 25%. Marquette shot 13% and Texas Tech shot 23%. Only Oakland shot anywhere near their season average and that game came down to overtime. NC State’s Cinderella story ends here and Purdue covers.
Best Final Four Pick & Prediction: Purdue -9.5 (-108) at FanDuel
Alabama-UConn Odds
Alabama: +540 | UConn: -800
Alabama: +11.5: -106 | UConn: -11.5: -114
Over 161.5: -108 | Under 161.5: -112
When: 8:49 p.m. ET
March Madness Odds via FanDuel
Alabama-UConn Prediction & Final Four Pick
Another wide spread in the Final Four’s second game, Alabama enters this contest as a 12-point underdog. After losing their opening game of the SEC Tournament, Alabama has now defeated Charleston, Grand Canyon, Clemson, and North Carolina to reach this point. Likewise, UConn slaughtered Stetson, Northwestern, San Diego State, and Illinois to punch their ticket to the final four.
Much like Purdue, UConn holds most of the advantages in this matchup. They rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth on defense. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks fourth in adjusted offense and 103rd in adjusted defense. Surprisingly, Alabama stands ninth in effective height, while UConn checks in at 26th.
Despite the effective height numbers, UConn holds the trump card with their center Donovan Clingan. He will face a weak Alabama frontcourt comprised primarily of up-transfers and underclassmen. Alabama ranks 200th in interior defense, while Clingan comes in as one of the most efficient interior scorers in the country. On the other side, Clingan ranks in the top 60 in block percentage and fouls drawn, creating a major mismatch inside.
Like Purdue, UConn also has ways to win this game outside of the interior. This team ranks 51st in three point percentage, behind elite shooters Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer. If that isn’t enough, Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle come in as two of the better shot creators in the country. Alabama’s lone redeeming quality here is their prowess from beyond the arc. Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, and Rylan Griffen all shoot north of 39% from three themselves. While an outright win isn’t likely, Alabama possesses enough firepower to keep this game close and perhaps backdoor a UConn team with their eyes on a second-consecutive National Championship.
Best Final Four Pick & Prediction: Alabama +11.5 (-106) at FanDuel
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