Before March Madness fully gets underway on Thursday, we have two more First Four matchups on Thursday night, including an intriguing matchup between Colorado and Boise State. In this article, we’ll be looking at the latest First Four preview while providing a Colorado-Boise State pick and prediction.
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Colorado-Boise State Preview
In this First Four matchup, we have the Pac-12 tournament runners-up Colorado facing a Boise State team that fell short in the first round of the Mountain West tournament. Will the Broncos’ extended rest pay dividends in this game? Or will Colorado’s impressive recent form carry over to Dayton? Let’s dive into the matchup.
When Colorado Has the Ball
While Colorado lost in the Pac-12 championship to Oregon, the Buffaloes have been in tremendous form lately. The Buffs won eight straight games before falling short in the Pac-12 championship, and since that win streak started, they rank 16th in the country in overall adjusted efficiency per BartTorvik.
Colorado loves to push the pace in transition, ranking in the 92nd percentile in transition efficiency per Synergy. They’ll face a Boise State defense that allowed the most fast break points per game in the Mountain West and was a bottom 15 defense in the country in defending in transition. The Broncos also grade out well below average in defending the rim, so look for the Buffs to get easy opportunities inside in this game.
The return of Cody Williams has also been a huge boon for Colorado. A projected lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, Williams provides incredible versatility on both ends of the floor. He ranks third on the team in Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating. While KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva are the leading scorers on this team, Williams provides an elite tertiary threat as a 42.9% 3-point shooter who can provide playmaking.
When Boise State Has the Ball
The Broncos love to play through the post, ranking in the top 40 in frequency and efficiency per Synergy. Tyson Degenhart leads the team with 17 points per game. However, Cody Williams’ elite length and shot-blocking prowess make him a natural fit to defend Degenhart down low. Tristan da Silva and Eddie Lampkin also provide physicality in the paint.
I wouldn’t expect many clean looks from the 3-point range for Boise State here, either – Colorado allows the 24th-lowest rate of unguarded jump shots. When the Broncos miss shots, expect the Buffs to clean up on the glass, as they rank 13th in the country in defensive rebounding. Lampkin is a monster on the glass who will create problems for Boise State.
Colorado-Boise State Pick
According to Bet Labs, Mountain West teams are 7-16 ATS (41.8%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2016. Double-digit seeds from the Mountain West are 1-26 all-time straight up and 4-21-2 ATS (16%). It’s clear that the committee is tired of teams from the conference falling short in the tournament with how they were seeded here. Unfortunately for the Broncos the committee did them no favors in this game.
Boise State compiled a 22-10 record against the 46th-ranked strength of schedule per KenPom. Unfortunately, they’re facing a Colorado team that boasts elite athletes and tons of length. After injuries caused a midseason slump for the Buffs, they’re finally realizing their elite upside. I believe Boise State will be overmatched here. I’m taking the Buffs to start their tournament run with a win in the First Four.
Best Bet: Colorado -2 (play to -3)
