The Saint Mary’s Gaels and Gonzaga Bulldogs will square off in tonight’s West Coast Conference championship game. Both teams have already secured bids to the big dance, but a conference title is nothing to scoff at. The Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s odds make this bet on the total grade out as a +ROI play at Caesars. For more Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s predictions and college basketball bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools.
Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Odds, Prediction & Best Bet | Total
Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s O/U 139.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels are projected for a total of 139.5 points, per Caesars Sportsbook. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book is taking action on the total at 138.5. These teams met twice in the regular season and combined to score 148 and 145 points in those meetings, but tonight’s game makes for a good spot to back the under.
Although Gonzaga’s offense has played exceptionally this year, Saint Mary’s will cause problems for them defensively. Saint Mary’s ranks third in Barttorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency — just what Gonzaga’s first-ranked unit in offensive efficiency needs for an off night. The Zags are 19-12 to the over this year so the books know they’ll draw plenty of public action no matter how high they jack up this total.
The total for this game opened at 140. According to Pregame, 86% of the tickets have come in on the over — yet the total has moved down by a point and a half. A similar trend is noticeable at VSiN: the over has drawn 82% of the tickets but only 63% of the cash. These factors all suggest that meaningful sharp action has come in on the under, and bettors looking to tail sharps should pay attention.
OddsShopper’s industry-leading model, which uses the odds available at different sportsbooks to identify off-market prices that offer a positive return, recommends backing this college basketball total bet at Caesars Sportsbook. The play has an expected win percentage of 53%, which is slightly better than the implied odds (51.9%) available at Caesars. Readers who are yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
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Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Prediction: Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Under 139.5 (-110) at Caesars
