Using the latest data and information, it’s time to continue our college basketball betting series by providing a Houston-Baylor pick, prediction, odds, preview and other information. Nonetheless, let’s get on with it.
Houston-Baylor Pick, Odds, Prediction, Preview & More
Houston-Baylor Odds
HOU: -142 | Home Team: +120
HOU -2: -112 | BAY +2: -108
Over 135: | Under 135: -110
When: 12 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings
Houston-Baylor Pick & Preview
We’re getting strength on strength in this ranked game between Houston and Baylor with the home Bears boasting an elite defense and the road Cougars riding a historically great defense.
Baylor averages 1.04 points per possession (PPP) in the half-court, tied for the fourth-best in the country, while Houston allows just 0.737 PPP in the half-court, which is the fewest.
You have to go back to the 2014-15 season to find a power conference defense allowing less PPP in the half-court.
I expect Baylor’s offense to primarily operate in the half-court in this game as Houston will limit its transition opportunities. While not a run-and-gun team per se — Baylor ranks 284th in adjusted tempo — the Bears will push the ball when the opportunities present themselves.
They won’t in this matchup, however, as Houston allows just 8.2 transition attempts per game, the ninth-fewest in the country. They also have just a 12.4% turnover rate in conference play, the lowest in the Big 12.
Synergy breaks pick-and-roll plays into two different categories — possessions that end with the ball-handler and possessions that end with the roll man. Baylor runs 15.7 pick-and-roll sets ending with the ball handler per game, the 12th-most in the country, and Houston allows just 0.532 PPP on those sets, the third-fewest in the country, thanks to elite point of attack defense from Jamal Shead, Emanuel Sharp, and LJ Cryer.
You might be asking why you shouldn’t just lay the points with Houston if I’m this enamored with their defense. Primarily, I’m concerned about their offense traveling here. The Cougars rank 360th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rating largely due to their offensive struggles on the road. They rank a ghastly 332nd in eFG% in road games this season, which is a large factor in their 1-6 ATS record away from home.
Baylor’s defense lags significantly behind its offense, to be sure, but the Bears do have some bright spots on that end. Haslametrics has Baylor ranked 15th in its “potential points off second chances” metric and Synergy has them in the 91st percentile for PPP allowed on offensive rebounds. In other words, they limit opponents to one trip down the floor and won’t afford Houston many easy second-chance points.
The Bears’ biggest defensive flaw comes from their rim protection as they rank in the 22nd percentile in defending shots at the rim. However, Houston averages just 19 shot attempts at the rim per game, which ranks 339th in the country. They’re instead over-reliant on mid-range jumpers, ranking second in mid-range attempt rate. Those inefficient shots are a primary culprit in limiting their offensive potency in road environments.
Neither team will look to push the pace in this game, with Houston limiting Baylor’s transition opportunities and grinding the game to a halt – the Cougars rank 345th in adjusted tempo. Houston is 6-1 to the under on the road this season while Baylor is 6-1 to the under against ranked opponents. I’m anticipating a grinding chess match between two great coaches on Saturday, and I love the under in this game as a result. I got my action down on the 138, but the number is now down to 135.
Houston-Baylor Pick: Under 138
