March Madness has finally arrived. The conference tournaments have concluded and it’s time for the big dance. With opening numbers up for every game, we’ll focus on the First Four for our first March Madness prediction. The Arizona State-Nevada odds point to this moneyline as a +ROI bet at DraftKings. For more Arizona State-Nevada predictions and college basketball bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools.
21-plus in most states. If you have a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
Arizona State-Nevada Odds & Best Bet | March Madness First Four
Arizona State (-2) vs. Nevada
Both the Arizona State Sun Devils and Nevada Wolf Pack found themselves on the bubble heading into March. Arizona State responded by winning its first two conference tournament games, including a big win over USC. Nevada lost the first game of its conference tournament to San Jose State. That underperformance in the clutch speaks volumes about what Nevada will bring to this year’s dance.
Nevada has had nine chances to score a Quad 1 win to Arizona State’s 11. The Wolf Pack went 4-5 in those games, including a 9-point road loss to Kansas State back in November. The Sun Devils went a slightly more respectable 5-6 but scored big wins over Creighton, Arizona and USC — all of whom will go dancing this spring. The Sun Devils aren’t perfect, but they’ve faced tougher opposition than the Wolf Pack — Arizona ranks 36th in adjusted strength of schedule. Nevada ranks 55th.
The Sun Devils have performed better in big moments and have earned plenty of support from sharps. Those factors are enough to put me on the Sun Devils, but others also align with this play. Nevada is a tough 10-32 (23.8%) as an underdog under head coach Steve Alford and is 4-5-1 (44.4%) against the spread as a dog this year. Nevada also lost to its lone Pac-12 opponent, Oregon, who Arizona State went 1-1 against, including a 17-point blowout road win.
This game opened close to a pick-’em, but sharps were quick to get action on the Sun Devils. Arizona State has drawn 88% of the handle on only 80% of the bets to cover the spread at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun Devils have also attracted 82% of the handle on 71% of the bets placed on the moneyline. The number now sits at -125 on DraftKings, which is still a bargain relative to other books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Arizona State at -135. BetMGM and FanDuel have the Sun Devils at -140 and -142, respectively.
I bought in at -120 (54.5%) but believe there is value down to around -150 (60%). Bettors should hurry to lock in the -125 at DraftKings before it also gets bid off the board. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can even score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager on any sportsbook market!
March Madness Arizona State-Nevada Prediction & Bet: Arizona State Moneyline (-125 for 0.62 Unit) at DraftKings
