The opening lines for March Madness are up, and bettors looking to get some action down for the First Four should do so quickly before the lines move. OddsShopper’s model has spotted a few market inefficiencies for Tuesday’s basketball action. The Pitt-Mississippi State odds point to this moneyline as a +ROI bet at BetMGM. For more Pitt-Mississippi State predictions and college basketball bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools.
Pitt-Mississippi State Odds & Best Bet | March Madness First Four
Pitt Panthers vs. Mississippi State O/U 132.5
The Pitt Panthers and Mississippi State Bulldogs barely made it into this year’s dance. The Bulldogs suffered a second-round exit to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC tournament after going 8-10 in conference play, worse than three teams that missed the dance but are a solid 21-12. The Panthers went a much more respectable 14-6 in conference play and own a better overall record at 22-11.
The Panthers boats an electric offense and have often forced games over their totals his season. The Panthers are a whopping 22-10-1 to the over and rank 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.9). Pitt has hit the over in eight of its last 10 games, all of which featured higher totals than this one. They also rank a solid 52nd in raw points per game (76.1) and a dismal 171st in raw points allowed per game (70.5).
The books may expect something out of the Bulldogs defensively. Mississippi State ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency and eighth in points allowed per game (61). However, Mississippi State is only 16-16-1 to the under this year as the books have often posted a reasonable total. The Bulldogs have even hit the over in four of their last five games.
The total at BetMGM is off-market. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the total set to 134.5 — albeit with the juice stacked on the under. Bettors can still buy this total at 132.5, a two-point discount, for the normal price of -110. OddsShopper’s model, which uses the numbers from sharp books to beat square ones, has this play with a 54% win percentage and a 2% expected ROI. Readers yet to register at BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance!
Bettors eager to tail this Pitt-Mississippi State prediction should note that the play is just one of several solid betting options. OddsShopper’s model, which has helped bettors who placed $100 on every +ROI bet five minutes before the start of each game since mid-January make $40,000, has a number of other plays that offer a higher return on investment. Simply sign up for a 7-day free trial by clicking on the ad below to view them!
March Madness Pitt-Mississippi State Prediction & Bet: Over 132.5 (-110) at BetMGM
