Now let’s dive into today’s March Madness odds, picks, predictions and more for today, including bets on the Michigan State-Mississippi State and Morehead State-Illinois games.
For more college basketball picks and predictions, make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools!
March Madness Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bets for Michigan State-Mississippi State, Morehead State-Illinois & More
Michigan State-Mississippi State Odds
Michigan State: -118 | Mississippi State: -102
Michigan State -1.5: -110 | Mississippi State +1.5: -110
Over 130.5: -110 | Under 130.5: -110
When: 12:15 p.m. ET
March Madness Odds via DraftKings
Michigan State-Mississippi State Picks & Prediction
After finishing 19-14, Michigan State limped their way into the NCAA Tournament to face a Mississippi State team that finished 21-13. Stylistically, this profiles as one of the better 8-9 matchups. Michigan State ranks 59th in offensive efficiency and ninth on defense, while Mississippi State checks in 60th on offense and 19th on defense.
Starting on the Michigan State side, this team has a clear weakness within the interior. Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, Mady Sissoko, and Xavier Booker have not lived up to expectation at the center position. This team ranks 165th at interior scoring and 148th in rebounding, despite coming in top 100 in effective height.
This should be a major problem for the Spartans, who draw another top 100 effective height team in Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs play through an elite big man in Tolu Smith. Beyond him, Mississippi State plays four other routine contributors who stand at least 6-7. This puts Mississippi State 56th at interior scoring and 22nd in rebounding.
Lastly, Michigan State does shoot three’s at a decent clip, ranking 66th in the country in three point percentage behind the elite play of Tyson Walker. Unfortunately, Mississippi State ranks sixth at defending that area of the court. With Michigan State running into the strength of Mississippi State on both offense and defense, taking the slight underdog makes sense here.
Best March Madness Pick & Prediction: Mississippi State +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Morehead State-Illinois Odds
Morehead State: +590 | Illinois: -810
Morehead State +11.5: -110 | Illinois -11.5: -110
Over 146.5: -110 | Under 146.5: -110
When: 3:10 p.m. ET
March Madness Odds via DraftKings
Morehead State-Illinois Picks & Prediction
Winner of the Ohio Valley Conference, Morehead State finished with a 26-8 record. On the other side, Illinois took down the Big Ten with wins over Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to put their record at 26-8. Overall, Morehead State ranks 148th in offensive efficiency and 141st on defense. Illinois checks in at fourth offensively and 92nd on defense.
The main problem for Morehead State entering this game is a weak schedule. This team only has two top 100 wins (Chattanooga, Little Rock) all season, with multiple losses to teams outside the top 200. Morehead State attempted to schedule quality opponents in the non-conference, but fell way short in every instance with the exception of a game against Indiana.
As for Illinois, this team remains battle tested after a strong non-conference and middling Big Ten schedule. This team plays through three studs in Terrence Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask, and Coleman Hawkins. They don’t have the best shooters, but Shannon and Domask are elite isolation scorers. Hawkins stands a little undersized for certain matchups, but that does not project to be the case here.
As for Morehead State, this team actually holds a shooting advantage. They rank 35th in effective field goal percentage, while Illinois comes in 50th. However, most of this comes from scoring at the rim, where Dain Dainja and Hawkins will reside. Morehead State ranks outside the top 100 in three point percentage. They rank 278th in turnovers committed and 232nd in fouls committed, giving Illinois a few other micro-edges in this matchup.
Best March Madness Pick & Prediction: Illinois -11.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Nevada-Dayton Odds
Nevada: -123 | Dayton: +103
Nevada -1: -110 | Dayton +1: -110
Over 136: -110 | Under 136: -110
When: 4:30 p.m. ET
March Madness Odds via DraftKings
Nevada-Dayton Pick & Prediction
The Mountain West regular season champions, the Nevada Wolfpack enter this game with a 26-7 record. They draw a Dayton team that received an at-large bid after finishing 24-7 this year. Overall, Nevada ranks 36th in offensive efficiency and 38th on defense. Meanwhile, Dayton comes in 22nd in offensive and 91st on defense.
Similar to Morehead State, Dayton enters this game with a questionable resume. Despite their record, they do not hold a win over a single team in the NCAA Tournament. Dayton did knock off NIT-bound Cincinnati, which ranks as their single best win this year.
Schedule aside, Dayton does play a well-rounded style of basketball. All-American DaRon Holmes II and Nate Santos occupy the interior, while the guards rank third nationally in three point percentage. Unfortunately for them, Nevada presents a tricky matchup stylistically. The Wolfpack play a lineup with decent size and actually hold a rebounding edge. They also rank 38th in three point defense, which puts them towards the top of any opponent Dayton has faced this year.
As for Nevada, this team plays an experienced lineup, led by Kenan Blackshear and three point specialist Jarod Lucas. Nevada ranks 33rd in three point shooting themselves, giving them the ability to trade with a Dayton team that attempts to slow the pace of play. With an overall superior level of competition, Nevada remains worth a shot as a short favorite in this matchup
Best March Madness Pick & Prediction: Nevada -1 (-110) at DraftKings
New to sports betting? OddsShopper’s selection of Betting 101 articles is here to help. Check out our guide to finding positive expected value (+EV) or our sport-specific guides, including our guide to NFL betting and our expert advice for NBA betting. If you’re looking for sharp plays each day, check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages — you can even unlock more +EV plays by signing up for OddsShopper Premium!
