One of the more volatile sporting events of the year, March Madness begins this week. Predicting which sleepers will make a run in the tournament can provide a massive edge when filling out brackets. Let’s dive into our March Madness predictions for the top Cinderellas, sleepers and longshot picks in this year’s tournament. Hungry for more college basketball content? Check out our college basketball betting model (currently available for $1 this week with code “PURDUE”) or the rest of our college basketball articles.
March Madness Predictions: Cinderellas, Sleepers & Longshots for the Men’s College Basketball Tournament (2024)
Matt Gajewski’s March Madness Cinderellas, Sleepers & Longshots
No. 11 New Mexico | March Madness Cinderellas, Sleepers & Longshots
Sweet 16 Odds: +220 at FanDuel
After running the table to win the Mountain West, New Mexico earned the automatic bid and is a No. 11 seed in the Big Dance. This team faces No. 6 Clemson and comes in as a 2.5-point betting favorite. As a team, New Mexico withstood multiple injuries throughout the year. Jaelen House missed five games and Jamal Mashburn missed eight. From there, Jemarl Baker, Mustapha Amzil and Donovan Dent all missed games as well.
Overall, this team ranks 39th on offense and 23rd on defense in terms of adjusted efficiency. Dent, House and Mashburn provide an elite backcourt when playing at full strength, while JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph provide the size to put New Mexico 45th in total rebounding.
As far as lookahead lines go, New Mexico won’t be more than a single-digit underdog to any seed until they reach the Final Four. They would also face suspect higher-seeded teams like Arizona and North Carolina within their region. North Carolina recently dropped their ACC Championship shot to NC State, while Arizona has multiple losses to quad two and three opponents.
No. 10 Colorado
Colorado (10)
Sweet 16 Odds: +1100 at DraftKings
Another team hampered by injury all season, Colorado snuck into the NCAA Tournament’s First Four after dropping the Pac-12 Championship to Oregon. Future NBA prospect Cody Williams missed 11 games, while Tristan Da Silva also missed three.
Despite the injury woes, Colorado still enters the tournament ranked 25th in adjusted offense and 39th on defense. Also 18th in effective field goal percentage, this team plays a balanced lineup. With Da Silva, Williams and Eddie Lampkin on the interior, Colorado stands 33rd in effective height and ninth in rebounding.
The Buffs also rank fourth in 3-point percentage. KJ Simpson, J’Vonne Hadley, and Williams all shoot over 40% from three, while Luke O’Brien and Da Silva come in north of 38%.
Colorado does have to get through a play-in game against a Boise State team. However, most of their future opponents come with some sort of injury limitation, including Marquette, Florida and Texas Tech. With this statistical profile, the Buffs could make a run deep into the tournament.
No. 8 Mississippi State
Mississippi State (8)
Sweet 16 Odds: +390 at FanDuel
Perhaps the toughest draw bracket-wise of the teams I’m profiling, Mississippi State finds themselves matched up against Michigan State before likely facing North Carolina.
While Michigan State lacks the actual wins, this team profiles well statistically and comes in as a slight favorite. However, Mississippi State has an incomplete statistical profile after Tolu Smith missed 12 games. With a few other players missing a game here and there, Mississippi State ranks 60th on offense and 19th on defense.
This team plays with a top-100 lineup in terms of height. Smith, Jimmy Bell, Cameron Matthews, KeShawn Murphy and DJ Jeffries all stand at least 6-foot-7, which exploits a weakness in Michigan State’s frontcourt and matches up well against North Carolina.
This team lacks some shooting, but they’ve improved offensively over the last six weeks. The Bulldogs jumped from 60th to 41st in overall offensive efficiency and 124 to 86 in effective field goal percentage. Already strong on defense, a consistent offensive showing in the NCAA Tournament could set up Mississippi State for a run.
Ben Rasa’s March Madness Cinderellas, Sleepers & Longshots
No. 11: New Mexico | March Madness Cinderellas, Sleepers & Longshots
Sweet 16 Odds: +220 at FanDuel
New Mexico may be a No. 11 seed, but don’t tell that to the betting markets. They currently clock in as a 2.5-point favorite in the first round over Clemson.
When healthy, their combination of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn can cause problems for any defense they come up against. On the year, they average north of 80 points per game and would likely get Baylor in the second round.
New Mexico is holding teams to just 30.6% from 3-point land, which ranks 23rd in the nation. Baylor takes and makes a ton of 3-pointers, so it’s a strength on strength here, but there is no doubt New Mexico can hang in that game.
If they were to get through Baylor, then who knows how far they could go, and it’s the type of team we could see make that magical run as a double-digit seed.
No. 13 Samford
Sweet 16 Odds: +850 at DraftKings
Obviously, Samford would be a true Cinderella, but love this team and how they play. They’re becoming a trendy upset pick over Kansas, but there are a lot of positives on why they could hang in a No. 13 vs No. 4 matchup.
Samford shoots 39.3% from beyond the arc, which ranks top-10 in the nation, and nobody plays more than 25 minutes per game. Achor Achor is a problem, and his team is healthier than they were most of the year.
Samford is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 86 points per game and plays at a frenetic pace.
KU may be getting healthier, but the Jayhawks are nowhere near where they’d want to be heading into the tournament. Samford would draw the winner of McNeese St and Gonzaga, which isn’t the worst road to have.
Most likely, the talent gap is too great for Samford to handle, but the Bulldogs are a stylistic nightmare for opponents and have a nice price north to win multiple games.
No. 10: Colorado
Sweet 16 Odds: +1100 at DraftKings
While Step 1 is just winning in the First Four against Boise State, if they do it, watch out for Colorado. Every several years, we see a First Four team win a game and make a deep run.
Colorado’s KJ Simpson is an elite guard, which is gold in a tournament setting. The Buffs draw Florida, who just lost a big man in the SEC Championship Game, and they can be exposed if you can protect the glass.
Next would be Marquette with Tyler Kolek’s health still in question. It’s a tough road, as I really respect Florida and Marquette, but this is an extremely dangerous and high-upside team in Colorado.
