If you’re looking to get some action down on the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, Saturday offers up plenty of juicy spots to exploit. Let’s dive into our picks and predictions for the Round of 32 for today, Saturday, March 23, including a bet on tonight’s Gonzaga-Kansas game. Make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools!
Round of 32 Picks & Predictions for Saturday, March 23
No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 2 Arizona | Round of 32 Picks & Predictions
There has been a clear script for beating this Arizona team all season, and I believe Dayton covers all of the bases. The Flyers play through dynamic scoring big man Da’Ron Holmes II, who averages 20.3 points per game. The Flyers rank in the 85th percentile in post-up sets and in the 84th percentile in pick-and-roll roll man plays per Synergy—Arizona ranks outside the top 260 defenses against both play types.
We’ve seen Arizona get carved up by the more skilled big men they’ve faced this season. Utah’s Branden Carlson had a 27-point game against them, while Duke’s Kyle Filipowski had 25. The Wildcats have struggled against spread pick-and-roll offenses that space the floor with capable shooters, which is the exact description of this Flyers team.
Holmes’ gravity on the interior creates so many issues for opponents. Opponents are often left with no choice but to double the big man, which allows Dayton to rank top-20 in shot selection and spacing per ShotQuality, consistently generating high-quality looks on the perimeter. That’s why they rank third in the country, shooting 40.2% from 3. Koby Brea (49%) and Nate Santos (42%) are elite three-point snipers.
Arizona ranks 205th in open 3 rate allowed, as they’ve had consistent issues extending to the perimeter. With Dayton’s ability to play through Holmes on the interior or rely on elite 3-point shooting, it’s tough for me to see how the Wildcats get consistent stops here.
Meanwhile, Dayton has some key answers defensively. The Flyers rank 337th in adjusted tempo, rarely allowing opponents to get out into transition. The Wildcats rank in the 87th percentile in transition frequency and the 83rd percentile in efficiency, but the Flyers allow the 36th-lowest rate of transition possessions in the country.
In the half-court, Dayton will play complex zone defense against Arizona. The Wildcats have struggled with zone all season, ranking 221st in PPP, and the Flyers rank in the 69th percentile in zone defense. With just two days to prepare for this game, it’s a tough turnaround for the Wildcats to game plan for that zone defense.
Finally, there are some key trends working in our favor here. Head coach Tommy Lloyd is 0-5 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career at Arizona and 7-9 ATS with just one day of rest. Meanwhile, Dayton coach Anthony Grant is 4-1 ATS with one day of rest.
Finally, the models I trust all show value on this line. ShotQuality is the least bullish on Dayton here, lining it at Arizona -8, but KenPom has it at -6 and Haslametrics at -6.7. I believe we’re getting tremendous value on the Flyers in this spot.
Best Round of 32 Pick & Prediction for Saturday: Dayton +9.5 (Play to +8)
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas
If you woke up from a four-month-long coma and saw Gonzaga favored by 4.5 points over Kansas in an NCAA men’s basketball tournament game, you would have thought the sky was falling. However, I still don’t believe we’ve hit the bottom of the market for the Jayhawks. Haslametrics makes this line Gonzaga -5.5 while EvanMiya makes it -8.1, and I’m expecting a double-digit victory for the Bulldogs.
Kansas’s starters logged heavy minutes on Thursday as they nearly coughed up a 20-point lead to a Samford team that relentlessly pushed the tempo with hyper-aggressive pressing and transition attacks. Now, the Jayhawks have to turn around 38 hours later and play once more in altitude against a surging Gonzaga team.
Defensively, Kansas must be at its best against a surging Gonzaga offense. According to Bart Torvik, the Zags have boasted the third-best offense in the country since the beginning of February. Gonzaga loves to push the ball in transition, ranking in the 88th percentile in frequency and the 95th percentile in efficiency.
Much of this game will come down to Hunter Dickinson against Graham Ike in the post. Both players are among the top three in post-up efficiency, and both defenses grade out elite in rim protection. In a one-on-one matchup, I’d give the edge to Dickinson. However, Gonzaga can bring constant doubles and traps in the paint without much fear of Kansas launching 3s—the Jayhawks rank 335th in 3-point attempt rate, lacking real threats on the perimeter.
Kansas lacks lineup versatility and schematic malleability without Kevin McCullar Jr., who is out for the tournament. Nicholas Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson are shooting under 30% from 3-point range, and neither has evolved into a true high-level defender.
I’ll tip my cap if Bill Self finds a way to keep this one close or pull off the outright upset. However, Kansas has been reeling for weeks, ranking 348th in Haslametrics’ positive momentum rating, while Gonzaga ranks 26th.
Best Round of 32 Pick & Prediction for Saturday: Gonzaga -4.5 (Play to -5)
No. 14 Oakland vs. No. 11 NC State
On Thursday, the whole world fell in love with a university they’d never heard of, as Oakland upset Kentucky in one of the biggest stories of the tournament so far. Isn’t that what all of this is about? Jack Gohlke captured the hearts of people across the country with his 10-20 3-point shooting barrage, and while that might be unsustainable, don’t tell him that — he’ll be firing away once more on Saturday.
What is more interesting about this game is NC State’s ability to prepare for Oakland’s zone defense with a short turnaround. With just one day to prepare, a Wolfpack offense that has played just 78 possessions against a zone all season must get ready to face a defense that plays zone at the second-highest rate in the country.
NC State plays through the post with D.J. Burns, who has averaged 15.3 points over the team’s six postseason wins. The Wolfpack have the 12th-highest post-up rate in the country, but the Golden Grizzlies allow the 10th-lowest post-up rate as it’s very difficult to continually post up a zone defense.
Oakland is also a heavy post-up offense with Trey Townsend — they rank eighth in post-up rate. NC State is middle-of-the-road in frequency and efficiency allowed on those plays. The Grizzlies use Townsend’s post-up actions to run pin-downs for Gohlke and Blake Lampman, who I expect to have a much more productive game here after just three points on 1-6 shooting.
Golden Grizzlies head coach Greg Kampe has been at the school for 40 seasons, guiding the team from Division II to Division I and winning 699 games. Oakland proved it belongs at this level, and while NC State is certainly a formidable opponent, I expect some difficulties preparing for the Grizzlies’ unique style of play on a short turnaround. I’ll take the points with the underdog here.
Best Round of 32 Pick & Prediction for Saturday: Oakland +6.5 (Play to +6)
