Women’s basketball analyst Dani Bar-Lavi back here on OddsShopper once again with my best bet for the opening day of the Sweet 16. As the tournament progresses, it feels like traditional lines, especially spreads, are getting a bit sharper. But at the same time, books are offering us a plethora of new betting options for the women’s college game. I’m particularly excited by the value, both in terms of profit and entertainment, of player prop betting in this sport. Today I’m looking at one player prop in the matchup between South Carolina and Indiana that offers some eye-popping value. Let’s eat — Bon Appetit:
If you’re hungry for more college basketball content, check out our other college basketball articles and college basketball betting tools!
Women’s March Madness Best Bet: Indiana-South Carolina
Part of South Carolina’s identity and brand year after year is having the most dominant, physical post play in college basketball. A line of elite, superstar post players has stretched over the Dawn Staley era in Columbia, with 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso the current torchbearer on the low block.
Cardoso has led the Gamecocks to be among the best rebounding teams in the nation, leading in defensive rebounds per game (32.0) and placing third in total rebounds per game (46.5). South Carolina keeps its opponents off the backboards well, holding them to a 42.2% total rebounding rate, fourth lowest in the nation. With all of this in mind, I was surprised to see FanDuel hang Indiana forward Sydney Parrish’s rebounds at 7.5, well above her season average of 6.1 rebounds per game.
This is a smash under, with Parrish under 7.5 rebounds in 18 of her 24 games this season and in seven of her last 10. Her rebounding numbers have been up a bit in the postseason, averaging eight per game over the last five, and FanDuel’s props maker over-adjusted to recency without accounting for matchup or regression to the season-long mean when setting this line.
Best Women’s March Madness Bet Today: Sydney Parrish Under 7.5 Rebounds (2 Units)
