Women’s basketball analyst Dani Bar-Lavi here with my best women’s basketball bet for March 23rd, the final day of the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. My first best bet of the tournament finished frustratingly close for us yesterday, with South Carolina failing to cover the spread of -53.5 by just a single field goal, beating Presbyterian 91-39. Today, I’m looking at an under-seeded underdog to upset to help bring us to 1-1. Let’s jump into my best women’s basketball bet for today’s slate of March Madness action, which comes in the UNLV-Creigton game. if you’re hungry for more college basketball content, check out our other college basketball articles and college basketball betting tools!
Women’s March Madness Best Bet: UNLV-Creighton
No. 10 UNLV faces No. 7 Creighton in what should be an extremely entertaining matchup. Both UNLV and Creighton are highly efficient offensive teams, each ranking in the top 25 nationally in effective field goal percentage (UNLV at 52.3%, Creighton at 51.7%), and each ranking top 15 nationally in offensive rating, or points per 100 possession (UNLV at 112.2, Creighton at 107.9).
However, on the other end of the floor, there is a clear disparity. UNLV is the 22nd team in the nation in defensive rating, holding their opponents to 82.6 points per 100 possessions.
Creighton, however, is just average on the defensive end, allowing 91.6, 174th nationwide. UNLV has dominated their opponents defensively while Creighton has held them slightly below their scoring averages.
Of course, there is a bit of a strength-of-schedule disparity, with Creighton playing in the Big East and UNLV in the Mountain West, but I think both lines-makers and the Committee have overvalued the Blue Jays and undervalued the Lady Rebels due to their conferences.
Mountain West competition is no joke — the conference ranks third among the mid-majors in average net rating, per CBB Analytics. The Big East, however, is sixth among the “Power 6” Conferences in the same ranking.
I believe UNLV should be the favorite in this game despite the seeding disparity, and I recommend breaking up a unit between UNLV +2.5 and their ML (currently +120 at DraftKings). That +120 ML implies that UNLV has a 45% chance of winning this game, but my colleagues at HerHoopStats give the Lady Rebels a 56.1% probability of winning this one outright. I love the value there.
Best Women’s March Madness Bet Today: UNLV +2.5 / UNLV ML at DraftKings
