It’s finally here, a matchup that has been written in the stars since last April: Iowa-South Carolina. An unstoppable force meets an unmovable object. One of the all-time greatest offensive players in the college game, Caitlin Clark, faces off against Kamilla Cardoso and the Gamecocks. Last year, very different versions of these two teams squared off in the Final Four, with South Carolina falling to a 41-point outburst from Clark despite essentially neutralizing her teammates offensively. Here we will break down two of the Women’s Championship best bets, and you can find all of my action (including live bets) on X @dblfluidity. But for now, let’s dig in on what should be an electric ending to an incredible season of college basketball.
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Women’s Championship Best Bets: Iowa-South Carolina
I’m personally sitting comfortably on the South Carolina side right now, with a combination of futures on South Carolina winning the championship and on various Gamecock starters winning the Most Outstanding Player award.
How to Bet South Carolina
If you’re not on either side of this game yet, the best remaining way to bet South Carolina isn’t on the moneyline or the spread. Instead, take Cardoso to win Most Outstanding Player at +150. In my previous article, I had said there wasn’t value on Cardoso at close-to-even money relative to her longshot teammates. However, Cardoso had a monster performance against North Carolina State on Friday, scoring 22 points on 10-for-12 shooting and added 11 rebounds to boot, and I anticipate another huge game for her against a fast-paced Iowa team with weak post defense.
Somehow, her odds also got longer after her breakout performance, increasing to +150, while Clark’s decreased to -200 despite being held to 21 points against UConn. With all of this in mind, I’m recommending a one-unit bet on Cardoso to win Most Outstanding Player at +150 on ESPN BET if you haven’t hit any kind of South Carolina future throughout the season.
I’m also recommending two units on the same bet if you did tail my previous South Carolina Most Outstanding Player picks earlier this week. That should guarantee profit on the MOP market for you in the event of a Gamecocks victory, with positions on all five of Dawn Staley’s starters.
Best South Carolina Bet: Kamilla Cardoso Most Outstanding Player (+150, ESPN BET)
Best NCAAW Player Prop Bet for Iowa-South Carolina
Iowa is an extremely fast team, 13th in pace per HerHoopStats at 76.8 possessions per 40 minutes. The Hawkeyes have a 3-point offense themselves and also allow a ton of 3-point attempts, with opponents shooting 35% of their attempts from beyond the arc. That puts them in the bottom 15 teams in the country at preventing 3-point attempts.
The main beneficiary of this on South Carolina is going to be guard Te-Hina Paopao, who ranks 14th in 3-point percentage (46.2%) and 21st in 3-pointers made (84 this season). This game presents a perfect storm for Paopao to have a big shooting outing, between the magnitude of the game itself, Iowa’s pace, weak perimeter defense and the defensive focus Iowa should be placing on clogging the paint and limiting Cardoso.
The best way to bet this prop is through bet365’s player milestones. I’d ladder Paopao’s 3’s using the milestones, starting with 1.9 units to win one on two-plus 3’s (-190). Paopao has two 3’s in 28 of 36 games this year. I’d also add 0.4 units on three-plus 3’s (+160) and 0.2 units on four-plus 3’s (+400). If you’re not in a state with bet365, just take hitting over 2.5 3’s on FanDuel for one unit.
Best Women’s NCAAW Player Prop for Iowa-South Carolina: Te-Hina Paopao 2+ 3-Pointers (-190), 3+ 3-Pointers (+160), 4+ 3-Pointers (+400), all at bet365
