BYU football finished the 2022 season with a solid 8-5 record. The Cougars only lost to Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, Liberty, and East Carolina. Their highlight wins occurred against Baylor, Boise State and SMU in their final season as an independent. In this post, we’ll be making our 2023 BYU football predictions for win totals while looking at their schedule and other key information in this season preview.
DraftKings Sportsbook puts the BYU win total at 5.5 with the under juiced to -125. BYU also sits at +8000 to win the Big 12, which ranks just ahead of Iowa State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Houston. With that said, let’s dive into our 2023 BYU football season preview.
2023 BYU Football Predictions & Season Preview
2023 BYU Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff
In place since 2016, Kilani Sitake will return for another season as BYU’s head coach. Sitake has a 56-34 record with BYU and has lead the Cougars to a bowl game in six of his seven seasons. This includes five straight bowls.
On offense, he retains the services of Aaron Roderick, who took over offensive coordinator duties in 2021. He previously coordinated the pass game for BYU from 2018-2020, giving him plenty of experience with Sitake. On defense, Sitake brought in former Weber State head coach Jay Hill to man the defense. Overall, Hill is the winningest coach in Weber State football history and he comes from the Kyle Whittingham coaching tree, which should leave BYU fans excited.
2023 BYU Football Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
At quarterback, BYU landed two-time transfer Kedon Slovis, who most recently played at Pittsburgh. Last year, Slovis completed 184 of his 315 pass attempts (58.4%) for 2,397 yards (7.6 yards per attempt), ten touchdowns, and nine interceptions. This proved a far cry from his 2019 freshman campaign with USC, where Slovis completed 71.9% of his passes for 3,502 yards, 30 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Slovis has no mobility whatsoever with -218 career rush yards on 119 attempts. Last year, Slovis finished with -68 rushing yards despite only taking 14 sacks. Slovis certainly doesn’t have the mobility of former signal caller Jaren Hall, but he possesses the experience to run this offense. Overall, he finished as the ACC’s sixth highest graded passer last year, per PFF.
Behind Slovis, it looks like Jake Retzlaff has moved ahead of former Boise State signal caller Cade Fennegan, who disappointed this spring. Retzlaff comes in as the top JUCO signal caller in this cycle. He was first team all-conference in the JUCO ranks last year some some impressive passing numbers. Retzlaff also has solid mobility with 515 rushing yards and six scores last year. BYU may have found a diamond in the rough with Retzlaff, if he can translate this production to the power five level. Overall, BYU’s quarterback room looks to be in pretty good shape ahead of 2023.
Running Back
BYU lost their top two running backs in Christopher Brooks and Lopini Katoa. The pair vacates over 1,000 rushing yards and 20 catches from last year. However, the Cougars hammered the transfer portal, bringing in Aidan Robbins (UNLV) and Deion Smith (Colorado).
Robbins experienced a breakout season in 2022. The 6-3, 230 pound back rushed 209 times for 1,009 yards and nine scores in 11 games last year. He also caught 23 balls for another 125 yards. The former Louisville back registered an efficient 3.37 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 22.5% of his attempts.
Smith comes in with 83 attempts for 393 yards and a pair of scores from 2022. The 6-0, 190 pound back also caught 11 balls for 84 yards and should work as a change of pace. He averaged 2.45 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 9.6% of his attempts. From there, BYU also retained a pair of rotational backs in Miles Davis and Hinckley Ropati. Ropati rushed 36 times for 189 yards last year and Davis notched 40 carries for 225 yards. Both should play a smaller role and help with depth here. With Robbins coming in, the BYU running back room may be better in 2023.
Wide Receiver
BYU lost their alpha Puka Nacua, who accounted for 25 carries for 209 yards and 48 receptions for 625 yards. They also lost Gunner Romney and Brayden Cosper. Romney missed most of last year due to injury, but previously functioned as a starter. Cosper stepped away from football. They still retain three of their top five receivers in Keanu Hill, Chase Roberts, and Kody Epps. All three of these players received considerable snaps due to injuries last year.
Hill led the group with 36 catches for 572 yards and seven scores. At 6-4, 210 pounds, Hill played out wide 80.5% of the time. His 1.73 yards per route ranked ninth among independents last year. Epps ranked third on the team in receiving, catching 39 balls for 459 yards and six scores. At 5-11, 185 pounds, Epps played in the slot 56.9% of the time and registered an elite 2.91 yards per route, which ranked second among independents. Roberts caught 22 balls for 357 yards and three scores. Roberts stands 6-4, 195 pounds and played out wide 77.5% of the time. His 1.90 yards per route ranked seventh last year.
From there, BYU added a pair of transfers in Keelan Marion (UConn) and Darius Lassiter (Eastern Michigan). Marion stands 6-0, 194 pounds and only caught four balls due to injury last year. His best season came in 2021 with 28 catches for 474 yards and five scores. Marion has played out wide 91.8% of the time with a 1.33 yards per route in his career.
Lassiter caught 40 balls for 471 yards last year. At 6-3, 200 pounds, Lassiter played out wide 91% of the time and logged a solid 1.76 yards per route in the MAC. The rest of BYU’s depth remains unproven, which should lead to plenty of snaps for these five. While Nacua will be hard to replace, this unit should be a strength for BYU again in 2023.
Tight End
At tight end, BYU retains their primary option Isaac Rex, who played 684 snaps last year. Rex stands 6-6, 254 pounds and caught 22 balls for 320 yards and six scores last year. The veteran tight end also provides an excellent blocking presence, which he utilized on 62% of his snaps last year.
Behind him, BYU retains fullback/tight end hybrid Masen Wake, who played 265 snaps last year. Wake only caught ten passes for 42 yards, but he also blocked on 66% of his snaps. At 6-1, 250 pounds, Wake possesses a fullback’s build. Finally, BYU has excellent depth at tight end. Ethan Erickson returns 94 snaps. One of their two four-star freshmen, Jackson Bowers, plays tight end. Finally, Southern Utah’s Mata’ava Ta’ase transferred into the program as well.
Offensive Line
The offensive line lost left tackle Blake Freeland, left guard Clark Barrington, right guard Harris LaChance, center Joe Tukuafu, and tackle Campbell Barrington. This leaves two returning starters in center Connor Pay and right tackle Kingsley Suamataia. Pay played 731 snaps last year and has two years of starting experience. Suamataia moved to left tackle this spring, but the transfer addition of Caleb Etienne may allow him to move back to his more natural position on the right side.
Etienne started and played 1,002 snaps for Oklahoma State at left tackle last year. He actually played much better in the pass game, which should be a fit with BYU. The two guards project to be transfers as well. Paul Maile transferred in from Utah after playing mostly center last year. He logged 811 snaps with the Utes. Snow College transfer Lisala Tai has been the favorite for the other guard spot, but there should be competition here.
BYU also added Ian Fitzgerald from Missouri State. Fitzgerald started for three seasons there, mostly playing right tackle. Weylin Lapuaho also transferred in from Utah State after 640 snaps last year. He did not play well, making him more of a depth option. A couple of other depth transfers also enter the program, including Jake Eichorn (Weber State) and Simi Moala (Utah). Eichorn did start a number of games for Weber State last year, but Moala has yet to play a snap. Ultimately, this offensive line should be a little worse, but they did their best to address their losses.
2023 BYU Football Season Preview: Defense
BYU ranked 95th on defense in 2022. This included the 108th-ranked run defense, 94th-ranked pass rush and 58th-ranked secondary. This defense lost a pair of corners, but much of their struggles last year had to do with injury. Regardless, this unit brought in 13 transfers in addition to their new defensive coordinator hire.
Defensive Line
Along the edge, BYU returns the services of Tyler Batty, who played 498 snaps last year. Batty led the team with seven tackles for loss, in addition to his two sacks and 52 tackles. He actually had solid pass rushing numbers, which should improve in a more aggressive defense.
Their other starter projects to be Boise State transfer Isaiah Bagnah. Bagnah played 459 snaps in 2021, but he entered the portal mid-season after reduced playing time. They also have rotational edge defenders like Alden Tofa and Blake Mangelson back for another year. Mangleson actually produced impressive numbers on a limited 202 snap sample. In addition to these two, BYU added Nuuletau Sellesin from Weber State. Sellesin recorded 21 pressures on 360 snaps and has familiarity with the Hill defense.
On the interior, John Nelson should kick inside full time after playing 534 snaps last year. Nelson ranked second on the team with six tackles for loss and led the team with three sacks. He will be joined by Caden Haws, who played poorly on his 487 snaps. BYU added Jackson Cravens (Boise State), Wyatt Dawe (Southern Utah), and David Latu (Snow College) to this unit in the transfer portal. Cravens has two years of starting experience and could jump Haws here. Dawe and Latu played 275 and Latu was a second-team All-American in the JUCO ranks. Regardless, this unit should have more options this year.
Linebacker
At linebacker, BYU lost Keenan Pili, who played at a league average level last year. They do return leading tackler Ben Bywater, who played 660 snaps last year. Bywater logged 98 tackles and actually played extremely well in pass coverage. Max Tooley also returns after 364 snaps, but he didn’t fare as well. Tooley did finish with 57 tackles and notched 57 tackles. Like Bywater, he proved decent in coverage.
From there, they added Utah State transfer AJ Vongphachanh. Vongphachanh has three years of starting experience and 1,954 snaps in his career. For depth purposes, Harrison Taggart (Oregon) also comes in via transfer. Taggart is a former four-star recruit from the 2022 class, who played just nine snaps for the Ducks last year. Ultimately, this linebacker position should be in pretty decent shape heading into 2023.
Defensive Back
BYU lost Gabe Jeudy-Lally and Kaleb Hayes from last year’s roster. They do return Jakob Robinson, who logged 558 snaps last year. Robinson played well last year with 51 tackles, five pass breakups, and one interception. Their other starter should be Weber State transfer Eddie Heckard. Heckard earned All-American honors and played in 49 games prior to joining BYU. From there, BYU added Garrett Kamden (Weber State), Jaylen Dunlap (Illinois), and Dylan Flowers (Southern Utah) Kamden has 37 games of experience and earned all-Big Sky honors. Dunlap played 604 and 883 snaps with Illinois over the last two years. Flowers comes in more as a depth piece, but this unit has a number of solid projected contributors here.
At safety, BYU returns both Micah Harper and Malik Moore after 561 and 167 snaps last year. Harper finished second on the team with 62 tackles and broke up three passes. Moore only appeared in four games due to injury, but he previously played 708 snaps in 2021. Behind this starting tandem, they return Talan Alfrey, who played 505 snaps last year, due to injury. He may slide into nickel to get the top five defenders onto the field. From there, they added Utah State transfer Crew Wakley, who played in four games in 2021. Overall, this unit should also be in a solid place and ready for a step forward in 2023.
2023 BYU Football Win Total Predictions & Schedule
2023 BYU Football Schedule
The Cougars play a non-conference schedule consisting of Sam Houston State, Southern Utah, and Arkansas. Inside Big 12 play, they draw Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and TCU. Overall, this schedule remains work-able with middling teams like Kansas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State on the schedule.
2023 BYU Football Futures Bet & Prediction
The Cougars over/under 5.5 wins is juiced to -125 towards the under. BYU plays a reasonable non-conference schedule, where they should finish 2-1. This means they need to pick up four conference wins in order to eclipse this win total. While the jump in competition is substantial, this roster actually possesses a solid amount of talent. Seeing them pick off four games against that middling schedule would not be surprising. For that reason, looking over 5.5 wins at +105 will be the play here for BYU.
Best BYU Football Win Total Projections & Bet: Over 5.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings)
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
- Alabama Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona State Season Preview & Predictions
- Arkansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Auburn Season Preview & Predictions
- Baylor Season Preview & Predictions
- Cal Season Preview & Predictions
- Clemson Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida State Season Preview & Predictions
- Georgia Season Preview & Predictions
- Illinois Season Preview & Predictions
- Indiana Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kentucky Season Preview & Predictions
- Louisville Season Preview & Predictions
- LSU Season Preview & Predictions
- Maryland Season Preview & Predictions
- Miami Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan State Season Preview & Predictions
- Minnesota Season Preview & Predictions
- Mississippi State Season Preview & Predictions
- Missouri Season Preview & Predictions
- Nebraska Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina State Season Preview & Predictions
- Notre Dame Season Preview & Predictions
- Ohio State Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma State Season Preview & Predictions
- Ole Miss Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon State Season Preview & Predictions
- Penn State Season Preview & Predictions
- Rutgers Season Preview & Predictions
- South Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- TCU Season Preview & Predictions
- Tennessee Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- UCLA Season Preview & Predictions
- USC Season Preview & Predictions
- Utah Season Preview & Predictions
- Vanderbilt Season Preview & Predictions
- Virginia Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington State Season Preview & Predictions
- West Virginia Season Preview & Predictions
- Wisconsin Season Preview & Predictions
