Duke football finished the 2022 season with an impressive 9-4 record. The Blue Devils only lost to Kansas, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Pittsburgh. This team rattled off wins against Miami, Wake Forest and UCF, but it lost to some teams it should have beaten and vice versa.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Blue Devils win total at 6.5 with the under juiced to -150. Duke also sits at +4000 to win the ACC, which ranks middle of the pack. With that said, let’s dive into Duke’s season preview.
2023 Duke Football Predictions & Season Preview
Duke Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff
Duke returns Mike Elko for his second season as head coach. Elko coordinated the Texas A&M defense from 2018 to 2021 before coming over to Duke. At offensive coordinator, he retains the services of Kevin Johns, who coordinated the Memphis offense from 2019 to 2021. On the defensive side of the ball, Elko hired Tyler Santucci to take over coordinator responsibilities. He coached linebackers with Elko at Texas A&M. All together, Duke has assembled a strong staff ahead of 2023.
Duke Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
Duke returns veteran Riley Leonard. Last year, Leonard burst onto the scene with 250 completions on 392 attempts (63.8%) for 2,967 yards (7.6 yards per attempt), 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Leonard also displayed elite mobility and led the team with 699 rushing yards on 124 attempts. Leonard only took 14 sacks last year, showing strong awareness in the pocket. Leonard finished as the ACC’s eighth-highest-graded passer and sixth highest graded quarterback. Behind him, Duke returns Henry Belvin IV as the backup. He only has six career pass attempts and entered the program as a 3-star recruit from the 2022 recruiting class. It also recruited a decent 3-star quarterback in this year’s class. Grayson Loftis comes in as the 880th-ranked player in the 2023 class. Leonard is the best quarterback to play at Duke since Daniel Jones and the Blue Devils should benefit.
Running Back
While Leonard led the team in rushing, this partly had to do with Duke’s three-man rotation at running back. All three return, highlighted by Jordan Waters. Waters led the team with 123 attempts for 566 yards. He also caught 16 passes for another 106 yards. He averaged an efficient 3.25 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 26% of his carries. Duke also returns Jaylen Coleman, who played in just nine games due to injury. When healthy, he rushed 102 times for 480 yards and four touchdowns, while catching six passes. Coleman averaged 2.73 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 9.8% of his attempts, proving less efficient than Waters. Duke returns Jaquez Moore, who also played in just 11 games due to injury. Moore is 5-foot-10, 198 pounds, and rushed for 508 yards on 79 carries, while adding seven receptions. He averaged 3.96 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 20.3% of his attempts. With all three back in the fold, Duke should have a strong rushing attack again in 2023.
Wide Receiver
Fortunately for Leonard, Duke returns all five of its top wide receivers. Jalon Calhoun highlights this list after catching 62 passes for 873 yards and four touchdowns last year. Calhoun is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, and played in the slot 58.9% of the time last year. His 2.49 yards per route ranked sixth in the ACC. Duke also returns former quarterback Jordan Moore, who caught 60 passes for 656 yards and five touchdowns. Moore is 6-foot-0, 189 pounds, and played out wide 57.9% of the time. His 1.72 yards per route ranked 26th in the conference. Eli Pancol returns after 23 catches for 347 yards last year. Pancol only played in nine games due to injury, but he is 6-foot-3, 205 pounds. He played out wide 92.9% of the time and his 1.75 yards per route ranked 22nd. When Pancol went down, Shamir Hagans played more. He finished with 31 receptions for 400 yards and five touchdowns. Hagans is 5-foot-10, 181 pounds, and played out wide 79.2% of the time. His 1.28 yards per route ranked 47th in the ACC. Beyond that, the Blue Devils also return Jontavis Robertson, who caught 14 passes for 191 yards last year. They also added Brown transfer Hayes Sutton, who caught 47 passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns last year. He now has over 1,000 yards in his career. With a few decent freshman recruits, this should be a solid crop of pass catchers for Duke in 2023.
Tight End
Duke also returns its top two options in Nicky Dalmolin and Cole Finney. Last year, Dalmolin played 563 snaps, where he blocked on 51.5% of them. Dalmolin is 6-foot-4, 240 pounds, and caught 21 passes for 170 yards and four touchdowns for Duke. Similarly, Finney returns after 309 snaps last year, which he blocked on 67.3%. Finney is 6-foot-7, 257 pounds, and caught just four passes last year. Its third tight end should be second-year player Jake Taylor, who entered the program as a 3-star recruit in 2022. He was the 1,254th player in that class, but Dalmolin and Finney could cede some snaps. Regardless, this should be a deep tight end room.
Offensive Line
Along the offensive line, Duke lost right tackle Andre Harris, guard Chance Lytle, center Jack Burns and reserve tackle John Gelotte along the offensive line. Duke also lost three transfers that previously committed to the program in Dan Volpe, Dustyn Hall and Michael Purcell. The team does return left tackle Graham Barton, who played 896 snaps last year. Barton was one of the better left tackles in the conference and now enters his fourth year starting. Center/guard Jacob Monk returns after 648 snaps last year. This will be his fifth year starting in the program and there is a good chance that he will move over to center with Burns gone. Left guard Maurice McIntyre does return after just 286 snaps last year due to injury. He started all of 2021 and played pretty well on those snaps. At right guard, Justin Pickett should be the next man up after filling in for 265 snaps as a reserve last year. The right tackle could be Stanford transfer Jake Hornibrook. While more of a guard, he has 1,923 snaps in the Pac-12. The Blue Devils also added guard transfer Ben Hoitink from Penn after two years of starting in the Ivy League. The same goes for Harvard transfer Scott Elliott, who will be a walk-on. He has two years of starting experience with Harvard. Duke flipped North Texas commit and Angelo State transfer Jacob Long. Long earned FCS All-American honors in his previous stop. This group does lose a lot, but there is promise for a unit that battled a ton of injuries last year.
Duke Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense
Duke ranked 52nd on defense in 2022. This included the 53rd-ranked run defense, 32nd-ranked pass rush and 80th-ranked secondary. This defense lost a pair of starters in the secondary and Shaka Heyward at linebacker. However, it returns most of a unit that played decently in 2022. Now with a new defensive coordinator, Duke will attempt to take its defense to the next level in 2023.
Defensive Line
Along the edge, Duke returns both starters R.J. Oben and Vincent Anthony. Oben and Anthony each played 456 snaps last year. Oben finished with 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, while Anthony checked in with 2.5 tackles for loss. Anthony is a former 4-star recruit and the eighth highest recruit in program history. A step forward is the expectation for him. Duke also returns rotational edge rushers Michael Reese and Anthony Nelson, who played 374 and 315 snaps last year as well. Neither particularly stood out, but both provide valuable experience to this defensive line.
On the interior, Duke also returns its two primary starters in DeWayne Carter and Ja’Mion Franklin. Last year Carter played 648 snaps and functioned as the team’s top defensive lineman. He recorded 11 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and 36 overall tackles. Franklin played quite well on 517 snaps. He finished with 3.5 tackles for loss, three sacks and 26 tackles. Duke returns rotational defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles, who played another 427 snaps. Peebles logged 15 tackles, two tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks, giving this defensive line strong depth. Duke added Brown transfers Sean Kelly on the defensive line. Altogether this should be another excellent season for the Duke defensive line.
Linebacker
Mentioned above, Duke lost Heyward this offseason and his 93 tackles from 2023. With that said, Duke still returns two starting linebackers in Dorian Mausi and Cam Dillon. Last year, Mausi played 409 snaps and logged 44 tackles. Mausi proved to be a major liability in coverage, but perhaps another year in the program has eased those deficiencies. Dillon played 460 snaps last year and finished with 61 tackles, five tackles for loss and three sacks. He should be the leader of this defense ahead of 2023. Tre Freeman and Nick Morris Jr. should play larger roles for Duke. Freeman logged 190 snaps last year and Morris played 79 in four games. The drop-off should not be too bad.
Defensive Back
At corner, the Blue Devils lost Datrone Young. However, they return three players with starting experience in Joshua Pickett, Chandler Rivers and Brandon Johnson. Last year, Pickett played 640 snaps and tied for a team-leading seven pass breakups. He also logged 41 tackles, displaying his ability as a well-rounded defender. Rivers played 606 snaps and broke up six passes. He also logged 52 tackles and an interception. Nickel defender Johnson played 810 snaps. He finished with a strong seven pass breakups, two interceptions and 55 tackles. An excellent blitzer, Johnson also recorded 7.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. If that were not enough, Duke also added transfers Al Blades (Miami) and Myles Jones (Texas A&M). Blades only played 138 snaps last year due to injury, but he started 14 games combined over the prior two years. Jones comes in with 29 starts to his name as well. Duke is a little weaker at safety, so there is a chance it shuffles its secondary to get one of both of these players onto the field.
At safety, the Blue Devils lost Darius Joiner after a phenomenal 2022 season. They do return full-time starter Jaylen Stinson after 868 snaps last year. Stinson ranked third on the team with 74 tackles. He also broke up one pass and logged two interceptions. If Duke does not move another defensive back over to safety, Terry Moore could be a starter. Moore moved over to safety from running back this offseason but is one of the more athletic players on Duke’s roster. It also has veterans like Isaiah Fisher-Smith, who has started games in a pinch previously. Ultimately, this Duke secondary could take a step forward with a little shuffling in the secondary.
2023 Duke Football Schedule & Predictions
Duke Football 2023 Schedule
The Blue Devils play a non-conference schedule consisting of Lafayette, Northwestern, Connecticut and Notre Dame. They should leave this portion of their schedule with a 3-1 record. They draw a brutal ACC schedule, featuring Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and North Carolina State. The only decent team that Duke dodges this year is Miami.
Duke Football Futures Bet & Prediction
The Blue Devils over/under 6.5 wins is juiced to -150 towards the under. While they play a reasonable non-conference schedule, this win total will come down to their brutal conference schedule. They should be clear underdogs against the top four teams. This means they could potentially need to win out against North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Virginia and Pittsburgh. While Duke is better or even than most of these teams at the very worst, the margins are thin. For that reason, under 6.5 wins will be the official play.
Best Duke Football Futures Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (-150 at DraftKings)
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
- Alabama Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona State Season Preview & Predictions
- Arkansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Auburn Season Preview & Predictions
- Baylor Season Preview & Predictions
- Cal Season Preview & Predictions
- Clemson Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida State Season Preview & Predictions
- Georgia Season Preview & Predictions
- Illinois Season Preview & Predictions
- Indiana Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kentucky Season Preview & Predictions
- Louisville Season Preview & Predictions
- LSU Season Preview & Predictions
- Maryland Season Preview & Predictions
- Miami Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan State Season Preview & Predictions
- Minnesota Season Preview & Predictions
- Mississippi State Season Preview & Predictions
- Missouri Season Preview & Predictions
- Nebraska Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina State Season Preview & Predictions
- Notre Dame Season Preview & Predictions
- Ohio State Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma State Season Preview & Predictions
- Ole Miss Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon State Season Preview & Predictions
- Penn State Season Preview & Predictions
- Rutgers Season Preview & Predictions
- South Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- TCU Season Preview & Predictions
- Tennessee Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- UCLA Season Preview & Predictions
- USC Season Preview & Predictions
- Utah Season Preview & Predictions
- Vanderbilt Season Preview & Predictions
- Virginia Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington State Season Preview & Predictions
- West Virginia Season Preview & Predictions
- Wisconsin Season Preview & Predictions
