Florida finished 2022 with a lackluster 6-7 record. This team did find a way to beat Utah, but they lost to almost every other notable opponent on their schedule last year. This season, sportsbooks seem to expect a slight step back. FanDuel Sportsbook currently gives Florida a 5.5-win total juiced to -134 on the over. Interesting, the Gators come in at +8500 to win the SEC. While long, these odds come in ahead of five other SEC teams. With that said, let’s dive into our Florida football season preview to make some predictions and identify the best futures bets.
2023 Florida Football Predictions, Preview & Roster Overview
On the coaching staff, all of the notable names return. Billy Napier enters his second season as Florida’s head coach after a success run at Louisiana-Lafayette. Rob Sale also returns as offensive coordinator. He previously coached Louisiana’s offense from 2018-2020. On defense, co-coordinators Patrick Toney and Sean Spencer return after a successful campaign. While this coaching staff has been questioned at times, it is tough to evaluate the group after one season of action. For what it’s worth, after this year’s recruiting disaster, it looks like the group has gotten back on track.
Florida Football Offense
At quarterback, Florida lost Anthony Richardson to the NFL, leaving Jack Miller III as the most experienced option on the roster. To bolster this unit, Florida brought in Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz. Last year, Mertz completed 164 of his 287 passes (57.1%) for 2,125 yards (7.4 YPA), 19 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. Mertz doesn’t have any mobility whatsoever with -21 career rushing yards. He finished as the Big Ten’s eighth highest graded quarterback, per PFF. Overall, he left much to be desired, but Wisconsin’s offense did him little favors. Miller only played in one game last year. He started Florida’s bowl against Oregon State and completed 13 of 22 passes for 180 scoreless yards. The defense dropped a few would-be interceptions, but Miller escaped without any turnovers. He is a complete question mark and neither quarterback separated themselves in the spring. This should be a concern for Florida heading into the summer.
Luckily, running back should be a much stronger position for Florida with the return of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. Johnson led the backfield with 841 yards and ten touchdowns on 155 attempts, while catching 12 balls for another 58 yards with two drops. The 5-11, 218 pound former Louisiana transfer averaged 3.13 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 23.2% of his attempts. While the pass game doesn’t look like his strength, Johnson proved efficient as a pure runner. Etienne stands 5-9, 217 pounds and rushed 118 times for 719 yards and six scores. He also caught all nine of his targets for 66 yards. Etienne averaged 3.87 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 29.7% of his attempts. Even with these returners, Florida added Tulane transfer Cameron Carroll and JUCO back Ja’Kobi Jackson. Carroll previously rushed for 751 and 516 yards in back to back seasons in 2020 and 2021. He also allegedly had one of the better springs on the team. While crowded, it isn’t impossible for a third back to carve out a role. Either way, both should provide depth alongside four-star freshman Treyaun Webb. Webb comes in as the 337th ranked prospect in this class.
The wide receiver position took a hit for Florida when Justin Shorter left for the NFL and Xzavier Henderson and Trent Whittemore hit the transfer portal. Even with these departures, Florida returns their top receiver Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall stands 6-1, 200 pounds and finished with 34 catches for 669 yards and five scores. The former Arizona State receiver played in the slot 71.8% of the time and his 2.41 yards per route ranked eighth in the SEC. Behind him, it looks like the next man up will be Caleb Douglas. Douglas ranked fourth among wide receivers in snaps last year on the team. He stands 6-3, 191 pounds and caught ten balls for 175 yards as a freshman. He played in the slot 19.2% of the time and recorded 1.55 yards per route. From there, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman, or Marcus Burke could be asked to start. None of them played more than 129 snaps last year, but Florida did not add any receiver transfers. It is also possible that a freshman plays. Eugene Wilson comes in as the 106th ranked player in this class. Aidan Mizell comes in as the 102nd ranked player in this class. Andy Jean also ranks 368th in this class. That gives Florida three four-star freshmen to evaluate this fall. Mizell flashed in the spring and Wilson will be on campus this summer. Florida possesses talent at this position, but the youth raises questions.
Fortunately, Florida returns all three of their top tight ends. Dante Zanders led the team with 528 snaps last year. The 6-5, 262 pound tight end blocked on 64% of his snaps, but he also caught ten balls for 75 yards. Keon Zipperer also returns after 339 snaps. Zipperer likely would have played more, but injury limited him in 2022. He stands 6-1, 246 pounds and blocked on 57.2% of his snaps. Zipperer also looks like a slightly better receiver with 13 catches for 177 yards last year. Finally, Jonathan Odom returns as the third tight end after seven catches for 69 yards on 209 snaps. Zipperer should start here, but expect Florida again to use multiple tight ends.
Florida loses almost their entire offensive line this offseason. They lost left guard Ethan White, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, left tackle Richard Gouraige, and right tackle Michael Tarquin. This leaves center Kingsley Eguakun as the only returning starter. He did play 830 snaps, but he was also the weakest link among this group. They also return Austin Barber, who played 655 snaps due to injuries along the offensive line. Most of these came at right tackle, but he filled in on both sides. He should be the favorite for left tackle right now.
Richie Leonard IV is a player the staff seems to have pegged for a larger role after 222 snaps last year. Right now, he looks like the frontrunner for right guard job. From within the portal, Florida added Baylor transfer Micah Mazzccua. Mazzccua started for the Bears last year and played 759 snaps. He allowed just 11 quarterback pressures. He should be immediately asked to start at one of the guard positions. Florida also added Alabama transfer Damieon George. George played 268 snaps for Alabama back in 2021, but only saw action in one contest this past year. He should slide right into the right tackle position after playing well enough at every point in his career. Florida made a couple of other additions along the offensive line, including Kentucky transfer Kiyaunta Goodwin. He played just five snaps last year, but stands 6-8, 351 pounds. Lyndell Hudson (60.8) also transferred in from Florida International. He started each of the last two years and played at least 239 snaps in all four of his seasons. Like a lot of positions on this team, the offensive line has major questions.
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Florida Football Defense
On defense, Florida ranked 68th in 2022. This included the 59th-ranked run defense, 53rd-ranked pass rush and 87th-ranked pass coverage. This defense lost a ton of production, including seven starters. Defensive line and secondary were the positions hit the hardest. Florida added 11 four-stars on defense and six transfers.
On the defensive line Florida’s edge group got his particularly hard with the losses of Antwaun Powell-Ryalnd Jr. and Brenton Cox Jr.. Fortunately, they have one returning stud in Pincley Umanmielen. He led the team with 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss last year. The other edge remains the biggest question. Right now, most believe second year player Jack Pyburn or true freshman Kelby Collins will start here. Either way, a young player looks likely to get thrown to the wolves.
On the interior, Gervon Dexter Sr. departs, but Desmond Watson returns after 418 snaps. Watson’s production doesn’t always appear in the box score, but he is known as an elite run defender. At 6-5, 415 pounds, he swallows blockers. However, his size often limits the amount of downs he can play. To help this unit, Florida added Cam’Ron Jackson out of Memphis and Caleb Banks out of Louisville. Banks only played occasionally at Louisville, but Jackson recorded 577 snaps last year. He recorded 41 tackles on those snaps. With Tyreak Sapp also back, the interior looks a little stronger for Florida.
At linebacker, Florida lost Amari Burney, but they return Shamar Jones. jones played 368 snaps last year, but excelled more as a pass rusher. He recorded two sacks and two tackles for loss, but only 47 total tackles. Florida also added a number of transfers at the linebacker. Teradja Mitchell highlights this group after playing 354 snaps for Ohio State in 2021. He was a complete liability when on the field, but he provides more experience than the rest of this roster. They also added Houston jack-of-all-trades Mannie Nunnery, who played 382 snaps last year. Special team’s ace, Nunnery could carve out a role as a nickel backer and potentially more. Lastly, Deuce Spurlock comes over from Michigan after 12 snaps last year.
The secondary might have the most questions after losing Trey Dean III, Rashad Torrence II, and Tre’Vez Johnson. They do return Jason Marshall as a full time boundary corner. Last year, he played 686 snaps and led the team with eight pass breakups. Jaydon Hill is the second-most experienced corner, but it looks like Florida will move him to the Star position. Regardless, he played 435 snaps last year and should start somewhere on this defense. Jadarrius Perkins also returns 203 snaps at Star. The final corner spot should come down to a battle between Devin Moore and Jalen Kimber. Both have battled injury throughout their careers, but both have starting experience. Four-star freshman and 55th ranked player in the 2023 class Ja’Keem Jackson has been drawing rave reviews this spring as well.
At safety, Florida should be far more experienced. Kamari Wilson returns after 311 snaps and 39 tackles. Florida also added Michigan transfer RJ Moten, who started each of the last two seasons. With Miguel Mitchell playing 107 snaps as a reserve safety last year, this position should be in good hands this season.
Florida Football Schedule
Aside from an SEC schedule, Florida plays one of the tougher schedules in the country. Aside from McNeese and Charlotte, Florida will play Utah and Florida State this year. If one positive can be drawn, at least Florida plays Utah in Week 1 with Cameron Rising rehabbing an ACL. From the SEC West, Florida faces Arkansas and LSU. Within their division, they face Tennessee at home and play Georgia in Jacksonville as usual.
Florida Football Win Total Prediction: Ultimately, this is a difficult schedule for a team with so many moving parts at important positions. To be exact, quarterback, offensive line, edge, and secondary are all major questions for the Gators. As it stands, they will be clear underdogs in four games. They will be slight underdogs in a few others. Florida fans will have to rely on wins over McNeese, Charlotte, Vanderbilt and the bottom of the SEC. As crazy as it sounds under 5.5 wins at +110 looks like the sharpest bet here as Florida continues to rebuild the roster.
