2023 Houston Football Predictions and Season Preview

Houston football finished the 2022 season with a solid 8-5 record. The Cougars only lost to Texas Tech, Kansas, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa. Aside from Kansas and SMU, their other three losses came down to single digits. Of Houston’s wins, UTSA and Memphis were the strongest. Eight of Houston’s games came down to single digits, leaving thin margins as it jumps to the Big 12.

DraftKings Sportsbook the Houston win total at 4.5 with the over juiced to -140. Houston also sits at +20000 to win the Big 12, which ranks just dead last in the conference. With that said, let’s dive into Houston’s season preview.

2023 Houston Football Predictions & Season Preview

Houston Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

Houston retains head coachDana Holgorsen. In place since 2019, Holgorsen has a 27-20 professional record with the program. After a 4-8 start in his debut season, Houston has made it to three straight bowl games under Holgorsen. As for his coaching staff, Holgorsen hired Eman Naghavi as his offensive coordinator. Naghavi will coordinate the run after previously coaching Tulane’s offensive line. With that said, Holgorsen likely retains play-calling duties. On defense, Doug Belk remains in place after initially coming to Houston in 2019. Belk has been with Holgorsen since the West Virginia days and has been responsible for developing some elite talent in the past.

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Offense

Quarterback

The Cougarslost longtime starter Clayton Tune to the NFL, but they added Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith. Smith played a decent amount in relief for Tyler Shough and Behren Morton last year. He completed 146 of his 221 passes (66.1%) for 1,505 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Smith also showed decent mobility with 116 yards and seven touchdowns on 76 carries. He did take 18 sacks, which negatively influenced these rushing numbers. Smith finished as the 13th graded passer in the Big 12, per PFF. While living up to Tune will be difficult, Smith offers plug and play ability to this offense. Behind Smith, Lucas Coley jumped the depth chart to second string last year. He initially came to Houston as a 3-star recruit and the 706th ranked quarterback in the class. Coley only threw three passes, making him relatively unproven behind Smith on the depth chart. Ultimately, this quarterback room should be viewed as a slight downgrade from what Houston put on the field in 2022.

Running Back

Tune led Houston in rushing with 544 yards and five touchdowns last year. The Cougars lost Ta’Zhawn Henry and Alton McCaskill this offseason. McCaskill did not play last year, but he was the most talented back on the roster prior to his ACL tear and departure. To help fill the void, Houston added West Virginia transfer Tony Mathis. Last year, Mathis rushed 135 times for 562 yards and five touchdowns, while catching seven passes. Mathis is 5-foot-11, 207 pounds, and averaged 2.43 yards after contact and a forced missed tackle on 24.4% of his attempts. Even with Mathis in the fold, there is still a decent chance the Cougars implement a running back by committee. This year, they return Stacy Sneed and Brandon Campbell. Sneed rushed 76 times for 501 yards, while catching 22 passes for 133 yards. He is 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, and registered 3.48 yards after contact with a 36.8% forced missed tackle rate. Campbell rushed 90 times for 435 yards and four touchdowns, in addition to his 15 catches. He battled injury last year but averaged 2.86 yards after contact and a 16.7% forced missed tackle rate. They also recruited 4-star freshman Parker Jenkins, which leaves the Houston backfield in a solid place ahead of 2023.

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Wide Receiver

The Cougars lost their top receiver Tank Dell this offseason, vacating 109 catches and 1,398 yards. They also lost their second-leading receiver KeSean Carter, leaving a void in the receiving room. Fortunately, they return 4-star Matthew Golden. Now entering his sophomore season, Golden caught 38 passes for 584 yards and seven touchdowns last year. Golden is 6-foot-0, 190 pounds. He played out wide 95.6% of the time and his 1.66 yards per route ranked 27th in the AAC. Samuel Brown also returns after 41 catches for 471 yards and four touchdowns last year. Brown is 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, and played out wide 94.5% of the time. His 1.35 yards per route ranked 37th last year. They also return Joseph Manjack, who only played in five games due to injury. Manjack still accounted for 15 receptions for 158 yards and one touchdown last year. He is 6-foot-3, 202 pounds, and played out wide 84.1% of the time. He also registered a decent 1.22 yards per route run. Houston added Stephon Johnson (Oklahoma State) and Joshua Cobbs (Wyoming) from the transfer portal. Johnson is 6-foot-2, 182 pounds, and caught 18 passes for 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He played out wide 94% of the time and registered a 1.59 yards per route as a freshman. Johnson originally came to Oklahoma State as a borderline 4-star recruit and the 522nd ranked player from the 2022 class. Cobbs is 6-foot-4, 204 pounds, and caught 35 passes for 407 yards and a pair of touchdowns last year. He played out wide 75.2% of the time and registered 1.50 yards per route. Beyond that, Houston added a pair of 4-star recruits in Mikal Harrison-Pilot and Jonah Williams, who should see the field sooner rather than later. This unit likely takes a small step back, but still plays to an above average level.

Tight End

Houston lost its longtime playmaker Christian Trahan, but it returns its second tight end Matt Byrnes. Byrnes is 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, and played 237 snaps last year. He blocked on 71% of those, but he also caught four passes. Logan Compton also returns after 26 snaps last year. However, Houston added West Virginia transfer Mike O’Laughlin. O’Laughlin is 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, and played just 200 snaps in five games last year due to injury. He only has 37 career catches for 292 yards, but O’Laughlin provides a veteran presence to this tight end room. At the very best, this should be considered a lateral move for Houston.

Offensive Line

Houston lost left guard Cam’Ron Johnson and right tackle Lance Robinson to transfer this offseason. It does return three starters. This group includes left tackle Patrick Paul, who will enter his third season as the starter. Center Jack Freeman returns after 935 snaps last year. He has 1,919 career snaps to his name. Tyler Johnson should play one of the guard spots after 639 snaps last year. The other guard should be Tank Jenkins. Jenkins only played 260 snaps last year, but he previously played 932 in 2021. Right tackle has a couple of options. Reuben Unije filled in for 213 snaps last year. He played 463 snaps back in 2020 as well. Houston also added Texas transfer Jaylen Garth. He did not see the field last year and only played 21 snaps in 2021. The Cougars also added Florida International transfer Shamar Hobdy-Lee. He played 804 snaps last year, but he was not very good when doing so. They added Max Banes (Akron), Peyton Dunn (Louisiana-Monroe) and David Ndukwe (Western Kentucky) along the offensive line. Banes previously played 201 and 401 snaps for Houston in 2019 and 2020, before one season with Akron. He played 506 snaps at left guard for the Zips last year. Dunn started for two seasons with Louisiana-Monroe, accounting for 1,292 snaps over the last two years. Ndukwe only played 17 snaps last year and should serve as depth. This unit still has some talent, but it is not as deep. A step back should be expected.

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Defense

Houston ranked 22nd on defense in 2022. This included the 43rd-ranked run defense, first-ranked pass rush and 73rd-ranked secondary. However, the defense now loses starters at every position. Four contributors along that elite 2022 defensive line depart, along with four players from the secondary. Houston did add 10 transfers, but it will be hard for this unit to live up to 2022 as it makes the switch to the Big 12.

Defensive Line

The edge group loses a ton of talent with the departures of D’Anthony Jones, Atlas Bell and Derek Parish. It returns just one main contributor in Nelson Ceaser, who played 729 snaps last year. Ceaser did finish with 36 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and four sacks. However, Jones, Parish and Bell accounted for a combined 29 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. Houston will have to lean on unproven depth and transfers. Zykeius Strong only played in one game for Houston last year, but the junior college transfer projects for a larger role. The same goes for Nadame Tucker, who saw snaps in three games last year after also coming in from junior college. Otherwise, it added Brandon Mack (Ole Miss) and David Ogwoegbu (Oklahoma) to this group. Mack only has 57 snaps over three years with Ole Miss, but Ogwoegbu played 918 snaps for Oklahoma last year. He now has 1,978 snaps in his career. Ogwoegbu has played a lot of linebacker to this point, but it appears Houston will have him add weight and work as more of a hybrid rusher.

On the interior, Houston lost Jamykal Neal, but it returns Chidozie Nwankwo. Nwankwo played 637 snaps last year, finishing with 36 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack. He finished with strong run defense numbers, which should be his role again in 2023. Sedrick Williams and Jamaree Caldwell played 329 and 244 snaps apiece last year. Caldwell only played in nine games, but he also posted elite run defense numbers, with 12 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss. Williams excelled as a pass rusher with seven tackles for loss and one sack. The team also added Michigan State transfer Jalen Hunt. Hunt played 483 snaps over the last four years as a rotational defensive lineman. This interior group remains much stronger than the edge.

Linebacker

Houston lost Mannie Nunnery and Donavan Mutin, who played key roles for this defense. Mutin led the team in tackles. The Cougars still have Trimarcus Cheeks, who played 287 snaps last year. However, he finished with just 35 tackles and proved to be a liability when on the field. The Cougars’ other projected contributors are Malik Robinson and Jamal Morris. Robinson started the first two games before going down with an injury. He played 243 snaps for Houston back in 2021 as well. With Robinson out, Morris filled in reasonably well for 413 snaps. He logged 42 tackles as a better run defender than coverage backer. Out of the portal, Houston grabbed Aubrey Smith (Colorad0). Smith played just 82 snaps last year and should serve as depth. This was not the best unit for Houston last year, so perhaps the return of Robinson eases some of the losses. The linebacker group remains volatile ahead of 2023.

Defensive Back

At corner, Houston lost Art Green and Jayce Rogers. It returns a pair of starters in Alex Hogan and Jalen Emery. Otherwise, this secondary will be filled with transfers. Last year, Hogan played just 383 snaps, but led the team with 10 pass breakups. Emery played 463 snaps, finishing with seven pass breakups and 26 tackles. There two will compete with high profile transfers Isaiah Hamilton (Texas Southern) and Latrell McCutchin (USC). Hamilton will come in as a first-team All-SWAC corner but will now have to make the jump to Power 5. McCutchin has now transferred twice in two years, leaving Oklahoma for USC and now coming to Houston. McCutchin played 352 snaps last year with decent enough coverage numbers. He looks like a candidate to play in the nickel. The team also added Brian George (Texas A&M) and Malik Fleming (East Carolina). George now has 407 snaps over three seasons. He originally came to Texas A&M as a 4-star junior college prospect. Fleming has three years of starting experience and 2,299 snaps to his name. There is a chance this unit improves ahead of 2023.

At safety, Houston lost Gervarrius Owens and Thabo Mwaniki. Owens will be a particularly difficult loss after logging 74 tackles, breaking up eight passes and catching one interception. One of the favorites to start here is Antonio Brooks. Wildly unproven, Brooks played just 114 snaps last year. He is another junior college product. The Cougars also added New Mexico transfer Adari Haulcy, who played 643 snaps last year. Haulcy played extremely well last year with 87 tackles, three pass breakups and a pair of interceptions. Beyond that, Houston does return Hasaan Hypolite, who played 431 snaps last year. However, he was easily the worst defender on the field and should be in danger of losing his job. While corner is strong, safety has some questions, making this secondary decent but still questionable ahead of 2023.

2023 Houston Football Predictions & Schedule

2023 Houston Football Schedule

The Cougars play a non-conference schedule consisting of UTSA, Rice and Sam Houston State. Within the Big 12, they draw Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor among the big guns. Fortunately, they dodge Oklahoma and play some lower-tier teams like West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and UCF. They will likely be underdogs in all of these games, but they are at least winnable for Houston.

2023 Houston Football Futures Bet & Prediction

The Cougars over/under 4.5 wins is juiced to -140 towards the Over. Ultimately, Houston’s non-conference likely gets them about halfway to this mark. However, it will not get any easier from there. With questions at quarterback, receiver, offensive line and across the defense, Houston could struggle within Big 12 play. For that reason, looking under 4.5 wins at plus money makes the most sense here.

Best Houston Football Futures Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (+120 at DraftKings)

You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!

2023 Houston Football Predictions and Season Preview

2023 Houston Football Predictions & Season Preview

Houston Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Houston Football Predictions & Schedule

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2023 Houston Football Predictions & Season Preview

Houston Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Houston Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Houston Football Predictions & Schedule

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