Iowa State finished 2022 with a disappointing 4-8 record. Their only wins came against Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, Ohio, and West Virginia. In fact, Iowa State lost eight of their last nine games. This year, FanDuel Sportsbook has opened the bidding on Iowa State’s win total at 5.5, with the over juice to -168. Iowa State comes in at +4000 to win the Big 12. Widely viewed as a middle of the pack team in this conference, Iowa State currently has the eighth longest odds to win the Big 12. With all of that said, let’s dive into the Iowa State roster.
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2023 Iowa State Football Season Preview & Predictions: Roster Overview
Iowa State Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff
At head coach Matt Campbell remains in place after his first losing season since his first year with the program. He did make a few changes in the coaching staff following the disappointing season. Campbell promoted Nate Scheelhaase to offensive coordinator after previously coordinating the run game for the last two years. On defense, the staff retains Jon Heacock, who has been with the team since 2016 and coached with Campbell at Toledo before that. Ultimately, many of Iowa State’s struggles came on the offensive side of the ball, so the hope is that new leadership can coax more out of these players.
Iowa State Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
Iowa State returns starting signal caller Hunter Dekkers after his first season starting. Dekkers completed 302 of his 457 passes (66.1%) for 3,044 yards (6.7 YPA), 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He took 27 sacks, but that’s still not too bad, considering how many times Iowa State dropped back. As a rusher, he accounted for 73 yards on 89 rushing attempts, but he didn’t always deal the best offensive line play. Overall, Dekkers finished as the fifth highest graded signal caller in the Big12, per PFF.
Last year’s backup Rocco Brecht returns after throwing just 15 passes. Iowa State also recruited early enrollee JJ Kohl, who comes in as a four-star prospect and the 132nd ranked player in this class. He is the highest recruit in this year’s class for Iowa State. There is an outside chance he could win the job, but that looks unlikely at this point. Looking to closer to the talent of the Brock Purdy years, Iowa State will need a step forward from this position.
Running Back
The Iowa State running game struggled for much of last year, but they return their top two rushers in Jirehl Brock and Cartevious Norton. Brock stands 6-1, 220 pounds and rushed for 443 yards and three scores on 99 attempts last year. The four-year veteran also caught 21 passes for another 113 yards with just one drop. He averaged 2.70 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on just 21.2% of his attempts.
Norton suffered an injury last year, but he rushed for 312 yards and two scores on 87 attempts before his injury. The 5-11, 212 pound back also caught 12 balls for 69 yards with a pair of drops. He averaged 2.59 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 26.4% of his attempts. Behind them, Eli Sanders returns 47 carries for 197 yards and Stanford transfer Arlen Harris also enters the backfield. Harris didn’t play much last year, but he was a four-star recruit in the 2022 cycle. It looks like this will be a committee, but this backfield is no stranger to feature backs after David Montgomery and Breece Hall came through the program. If one rusher emerges, this could be a solid situation.
Wide Receiver
At receiver, Iowa State lost a pure stud in Xavier Hutchinson to the NFL. They also lost some rotational players like Sean Shaw Jr., which could hurt their depth. Overall, Iowa State will rely on two returning starters in Jaylin Noel and former Colorado transfer Dmitri Stanley. Stanley stands 6-1, 196 pounds and caught 33 balls for 420 yards and one score last year. He played out wide 94.1% of the time and his 1.17 yards per route ranked 39th in Big12. Noel stands 5-10, 190 pounds and caught 60 balls for 572 yards and three scores as a true sophomore. Noel has been starting since his true freshman season. Last year, he played in the slot 81.4% of the time and his 1.48 yards per route ranked 29th.
The final starter for Iowa State remains a mystery. The next man up by snap count would be Aidan Bitter, but he only logged 66 snaps last year. It is more likely that Iowa State goes a different direction. Greg Gaines was a four-star recruit in 2022, but he only caught one pass last year. Incoming freshman Kai Black and Beni Ngoyi have been receiving some hype this spring as well. Finally, Jayden Higgins transferred in from Eastern Kentucky after catching 58 balls for 747 yards and ten scores last year. He is 6-4 215 pounds and could be a logical replacement for Hutchinson. Ultimately, this position will require someone to step up and fill the massive void left by Hutchinson.
Tight End
At tight end, Iowa State lost Jared Rus, who ended up leading the position with 457 snaps. However, Easton Dean and DeShawn Hanika both return after playing 389 and 295 snaps apiece. Dean is a former quarterback, who caught ten balls for 129 yards last year. He is 6-6, 249 pounds and blocked on 57.6% of his snaps. Hanika caught 17 balls for 244 yards and four scores himself. He stands 6-6, 238 pounds and blocked on just 19.3% of his snaps. Iowa State will use a decent amount of two tight end sets and it looks like Hanika will operate as more of the pass catcher. Ultimately, this position appears to have pretty solid talent and depth. Tyler Moore and Stevo Klotz also saw a handful of snaps as pure depth last year.
Offensive Line
The offensive line unit ranked 80th in pass blocking last year and will require a step forward from the current unit. Iowa State hired a new offensive line coach, who will look to reshape this group as well. Overall, the offensive line lost only center Trevor Downing, who struggled for most of the year. Right tackle Jake Remsburg returns after battling injury for parts of 2022. He originally started in 2020, but has struggled to stay on the field since then. Last year, he played 407 snaps. Left tackle Tyler Miller also returns after playing 830 snaps. Miller had his ups and downs, but he stands 6-9, 316 pounds. The injury to Remsburg allowed Grant Treiber to play 496 snaps as well. The tackle position returns plenty of snaps, so hopefully they can be coached up a bit. At left guard Jarrod Hufford returns 883 snaps. Right guard Darrell Simmons Jr. also played 796 snaps. The interior of this line fared a little better than the tackle position last year, making the interior a strength. The center position remains a mystery for now. New offensive line coach Ryan Clanton shouted out Jim Bonifas earlier this spring. Bonifas played 12 snaps at center last year. Deylin Hasert and Oluwafunto Akinshilo also received shoutouts. This position will likely come down to summer ball.
Iowa State Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense
Iowa State ranked 43rd on defense in 2022. This included the 29-ranked run defense, 73rd-ranked pass rush and 58th-ranked secondary. The defense lost a first round edge rusher in Will McDonald IV. However a number of other starters depart across the defense. Iowa State only brought in two transfers and recruited no four-stars along this side of the ball. With that approach, it looks like they will rely more on their depth.
Defensive Line
Mentioned above, Iowa State lost McDonald to the NFL. However, they also lost MJ Anderson, who recorded nine tackles for loss last year. In their place, it looks like JR Singleton and Joey Peterson are the favorites to start. Singleton logged 237 snaps last year with just nine tackles to show for it. He stands 6-2, 300 pounds and will play more of the defensive end, five technique role. Tyler Onyedim also 189 snaps last year at this same position. He proved more productive with three tackles for loss and one sack on these snaps. Peterson comes in at 6-4, 238 pounds and will play more of the LEO. He also only saw 118 snaps, but that led to 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack.
On the interior, Isaiah Lee returns 488 snaps and Domonique Orange played 219. Despite standing just 292 pounds, Lee finished as one of the better run defenders on this team. Orange only recorded eight tackles on his limited snaps, but he will likely be needed for more here. Finally, Iowa State brought in Tobechi Okoli along the defensive line from Auburn. At 6-5, 272, there’s a good chance he plays along the edge. A 2021 recruit, Okoli had yet to play a snap for Auburn.
Linebacker
At linebacker, Iowa State lost O’Rien Vance, Colby Reeder, and Kendall Jackson. Fortunately, Iowa State returns Gerry Vaughn, who played 620 snaps for this team. Vaughn actually showed a reliable skillset as well. He led the team with 71 tackles, while adding 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. It looks like the other starter will be Missouri transfer Zach Lovett. Lovett only played 14 snaps for Missouri over the last two seasons. However, he has already received praise from the Iowa State staff this spring. Aside from that, Will McLaughlin struggled on 156 snaps last year, making this a position of little depth.
Defensive Back
The secondary lost corner Tayvonn Kyle, but they return two full time corners in Myles Purchase and TJ Tampa. Both played on the boundary last year. Tampa in particular had a solid 2022. He accounted for nine pass breakups and one interceptions. Ultimately, Tampa and purchase both played over 640 snaps. Kyle played the slot quite a bit last year, leaving a void in nickel packages. Jeremiah Cooper did play 307 total snaps last year and ranked third on the team in snaps in the slot. He left a little to be desired in terms of on field production, but at least someone has played this position before.
At safety, Iowa State lost Anthony Johnson Jr. and Mason Chambers. Johnson actually led the team in slot snaps, creating a further void there. With that said, Beau Freyler returns 506 snaps at safety and played in the slot a bit himself. Freyler ranked second on the team with 68 tackles and should provide some leadership here. The early favorite for the other safety position looks like Malik Verdon after playing 96 snaps in three games last year, due to injury. Hopefully with a fully healthy season, Verdon can extend the flashes he showed in a shortened 2022.
2023 Iowa State Football Season Preview: Schedule & Predictions
Iowa State Football 2023 Schedule
As far as Big 12 schedules go, Iowa State’s comes in on the more difficult side. The Cyclones play in state rival Iowa in Week 2. However, they sandwich that game with Northern Iowa and Ohio. In conference, they draw five of the six toughest teams, per Vegas odds. They travel to Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, BYU, and Cincinnati. Only home draws against Texas and TCU redeem this schedule.
Iowa State Football Futures Bet & Prediction
Ultimately, Iowa State’s win total comes in with a relatively efficient price. Iowa State should be a clear favorite over Northern Iowa, Ohio, and maybe BYU. Unfortunately, they travel into Provo for that game. The Cyclones will likely be decent underdogs to Oklahoma and Texas, if not Iowa and a few others as well. Ultimately, this schedule will come down to the close games in the heart of conference play. Unfortunately, games like Kansas no longer result in easy wins. With all of that said, grabbing under 5.5 wins at +136 makes the most sense here, given the production losses on this roster.
Best Iowa State Football Futures Bet: Under 5.5 Wins +136 at FanDuel
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
- Alabama Season Preview & Predictions
- Arkansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Auburn Season Preview & Predictions
- Georgia Season Preview & Predictions
- Kentucky Season Preview & Predictions
- LSU Season Preview & Predictions
- Mississippi State Season Preview & Predictions
- Missouri Season Preview & Predictions
- Ole Miss Season Preview & Predictions
- South Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- Tennessee Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
