Michigan State finished 2022 with a disappointing 5-7 record. The team only defeated Western Michigan, Akron, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers on the season. Just one year removed from an 11-2 season, Michigan State will look to rebound this season. This year, FanDuel Sportsbook has opened the bidding on Michigan State’s win total at 5.5, with the under juiced to -144. The Spartans sit at +12000 to win the Big Ten, which ranks ahead of just Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern. Let’s get into Michigan State football predictions with a season preview and roster overview.
2023 Michigan State Football Predictions & Season Preview
Michigan State Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff
Michigan State enters the third season of the Mel Tucker era. Tucker has an 18-14 record with Michigan State, highlighted by his 11-2 season in 2021. However, the step back in 2022 raised major concerns. Despite the drop off, Tucker retained most of his staff, including offensive coordinator Jay Johnson and defensive coordinator Scott Hazelton. Both have coached at a high level previously, but this roster comes with significant questions.
Michigan State Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
At quarterback Michigan State lost Payton Thorne to the transfer portal. Thorne is 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, and completed 62.5% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. Overall, he threw 387 times for 2,679 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. This was a step back after throwing for 3,232 yards, 27 touchdowns, and ten interceptions in 2021. Overall, he finished as the tenth highest graded quarterback in the Big Ten among 17 passers with at least 100 attempts last year, per PFF.
The new starter here should be 2022 four-star prospect Katin Houser. Houser was the 215th overall recruit and 14th quarterback in the class. They also have former 2020 three-star recruit Noah Kim and incoming freshman Sam Leavitt, who isn’t on campus yet. Ultimately, this position group comes with major questions and little experience following the departure of Thorne.
Running Back
The Michigan State running back position was a complete disaster in 2022. Former Wisconsin back, Jalen Berger returns after leading the Spartans with 148 carries for 683 yards last year. The 6-foot-0, 203 pound back also caught 19 passes for 128 yards. He averaged 2.84 yards after contact per attempt and a missed tackle on 13.5% of his carries. Offensive line aside, these numbers need to be better.
Mel Tucker seemed to realize that by adding Connecticut transfer Nathan Carter and USF transfer Jaren Mangham. Carter is 5-foot-9, 196 pounds, and rushed 64 times for 406 yards before injury last year. He averaged 3.72 yards after contact per attempt and a forced missed tackle on 29.7% of his carries. This will be a step up in competition, but those are solid numbers. He also caught five passes for another 39 yards.
Mangham is 6-foot-2, 231 pounds, and rushed 24 times for 104 yards last year before injury. The year prior, Mangham rushed 159 times for 672 yards. He averaged 2.75 yards after contact per attempt and forced a missed tackle on 17.0% of his attempts. Mangham only caught five passes that year, but he does have ties to Tucker from his days at Colorado. Mangham played there for two years before transferring to USF. Mangham caught ten passes in his freshman season.
Wide Receiver
At receiver, Michigan State lost Jayden Reed to the NFL and 6-foot-3, 210-pound Keon Coleman to the transfer portal. Coleman is a massive loss. He led the Spartans in receiving last year, catching 58 passes for 798 yards, and seven touchdowns. The Spartan’s third-leading receiver, Tre Mosley returns. He now enters his fifth season after catching 35 passes for 359 yards last year. Mosley posted a putrid 1.14 yards per route, which ranked 49th in the Big Ten last year. Mosley even had the luxury of operating out of the slot on 89.6% of his routes.
The other starter looks like Montorie Foster. Foster is a 6-foot-0, 185-pound receiver, who caught seven passes for 98 yards in a limited 2022 role. This will be his fourth year with the program and his yards per route is 1.10 for his career. Michigan State would be wise to look for replacements, but unfortunately former four-star recruit Germie Bernard transferred out.
The Spartans did add Nebraska transfer Alante Brown, who caught 16 passes for 191 yards last year. He is 6-foot-0, 190 pounds, and faces little competition for playing time here. The two deep should also feature complete unknowns in Jaron Glover, Christian Fitzpatrick, and Cade McDonald. This group needs a young player to step up, but that remains to be seen.
Tight End
With Michigan State so thin at receiver, there’s a good chance that Michigan State just plays more two tight end sets. Daniel Barker departs but fifth leading pass catcher Maliq Carr returns after snagging 16 passes for 209 yards. Carr is a WR/TE hybrid standing 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, and his 1.50 yards per route was comparable to the other receivers. He still isn’t a very good blocker, so his role is still up in the air. Michigan State also brought in three tight end transfers.
This group includes Tyneil Hopper (Boise State), Jaylan Franklin (Wisconsin), and Ademola Faleye (Norfolk State). Faleye is a 6-foot-7, 235-pound tight end, who caught 4 passes for 55 yards last year as a freshman. Franklin is 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, and enters his fourth season after never playing more than 80 snaps in any given year. He is basically another unknown. Hopper is 6-foot-2, 248 pounds, and actually played considerably last year. He caught 13 passes for 108 yards, posting a poor 1.13 yards per route. He is in his fifth year with decent blocking grades. None of these players particularly stand out, so having a bunch and hoping one improves makes sense. The team also recruited four-star freshman Brennan Parachek, who was the 339th prospect and18th ranked tight end in this class.
Offensive Line
The offensive line loses three players with starting experience in Jarrett Horst, Matt Carrick, and Tyler Hunt. Only Hunt showed the ability to play at a high level, so there could be some addition by subtraction here. The new projected offensive line will go in order of left to right. At left tackle, JUCO transfer Keyshawn Blackstock projects to take over. This is far from settled with Blackstock coming in a little small for the position at 6-foot-4, 290 pounds.
The other option is Brandon Baldwin, who played 405 snaps last year. Baldwin played average at best, but he possesses much better size at 6-foot-7, 315 pounds. At left guard, J.D. Duplain. Duplain played 742 snaps and comes in as an elite pass blocker. At center, Nick Samac also returns. Samac played 803 snaps with elite pass blocking prowess as well. Both are roughly the same size as Blackstock, which is interesting.
Geno VanDeMark is a logical replacement at right guard after he played 215 snaps last year. Michigan State returns Spencer Brown at right tackle. Brown was average across the board last year, but he played 783 snaps and could take a step forward. The team also recruited four-star prospect Stanton Ramil at the tackle position. His services may be called upon sooner rather than later.
Michigan State Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense
Michigan State ranked 92nd on defense in 2022. This included the 68th-ranked run defense, 84th-ranked pass rush and 120th-ranked secondary. The Spartans lost a fair amount of their secondary, but they attacked the portal. In total, Michigan State will bring in nine transfers and four four-star prospects on the defensive side of the ball.
Defensive Line
On the edge, Michigan State will deal with the loss Jeff Pietrowski and some rotational pieces. Pietrowski suffered an injury after three games. This leaves very little production returning from last year’s group. Khris Bogle and Avery Dunn played 132 and 302 snaps last year. Bogle only played in four games due to injury last year and projects to start when healthy. The team also added high profile transfer Tunmise Adeleye from Texas A&M to play off the edge.
On the interior Michigan State loses no one of note. Starters Derrick Harmon and Simeon Barrow both return after 468 and 537 snaps last year. Barrow played particularly well, ranking second on the team with 4.0 sacks. The team also returns rotational player Maverick Hansen, who 378 snaps for the Spartans.
To add further depth, Michigan State added Florida State transfer Jarrett Jackson. He only played as a rotational piece last year and should provide depth. Dre Butler also comes in from Liberty after playing 304 snaps last year and previously playing with Auburn. Finally, Jalen Sami comes in from Colorado after three seasons with at least 400 snaps. This group should be much stronger than the edge.
Linebacker
At linebacker Michigan State returns a pair of starters in Jacoby Windmon and Cal Haladay. Windmon actually splits his time between linebacker and the edge, which is important for a thin edge group. He is only 230 pounds, but he still led the team with 5.5 sacks last year.
Haladay led the team with 120 total tackles and should provide a veteran presence. The final linebacker could be Darius Snow, who suffered an injury after 29 snaps in the team’s opening game. Injury also allowed Aaron Brule to get 334 snaps at linebacker last year. Finally, Aaron Alexander transferred in from UMass to provide depth. Overall, this group should be pretty good ahead of 2023.
Defensive Back
The secondary was the biggest concern last year, but Michigan State dealt with a slew of injuries. This year they lost safety Kendall Brooks, safety Xavier Henderson, and corner Ameer Speed. The corner position remains tough to project. Charles Brantley returns after 694 snaps last year. He led the team with six pass breakups but played up and down.
Angelo Grose should play the slot after 532 snaps and four pass breakups last year. Grose will move between safety and slot as the defense sees fit. The final starter could be Marqui Lowery, but Tucker brought in some transfers to compete. Semar Melvin comes in from Wisconsin after 321 snaps in four seasons with the Badgers. Terry Roberts also comes in from Iowa, where he played 202 snaps in four games before injury. He spent the spring with Miami but has since transferred to Michigan State. Kee’yon Stewart also comes in from TCU after playing 834 snaps with the Horned Frogs over four seasons.
Safety comes with even more questions. Jaden Mangham looks like a logical replacement after 229 snaps last year. The other safety spot could be a combination of players. Malik Spencer and Dillon Tatum played 56 and 118 snaps last year. Armorion Smith does come in from Cincinnati, but he played just 185 snaps last year. Ultimately, this position lacks the experience from a season ago.
2023 Michigan State Football Schedule & Predictions
Michigan State Football 2023 Schedule
Michigan State plays a non-conference schedule consisting of Central Michigan, Richmond, and Washington. They will be clear underdogs to Washington, but the other two games should be wins. From there, Michigan State plays the usual suspects from the Big Ten East and Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska from the West. Based on early odds, they will be favored against just Indiana, with Rutgers being close to a pick-’em. Overall, this shakes out as a fairly difficult schedule for the Spartans.
Michigan State Football Futures Bet & Prediction
Right away, Michigan State unders look attractive. The team has two clear wins and five or six clear losses on the schedule. The win total likely comes down to games against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska. Needing to hit four of those games to reach an over, it looks unlikely that Michigan State will achieve bowl eligibility.
Best Michigan State Football Futures Bet: under 5.5 Wins -144 at FanDuel
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
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- TCU Season Preview & Predictions
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- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
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