Penn State finished 2022 with a strong 11-2 record, only losing to Ohio State and Michigan. While overshadowed by the two playoff teams from the Big Ten, Penn State trailed narrowly and will now hope to close the gap. This year, FanDuel Sportsbook has Penn State’s win total at 9.5, with the over juiced to -138. The Nittany Lions sit at +600 to win the Big Ten, which ranks just behind Ohio State and Michigan. Let’s get into Penn State football predictions with a season preview and roster overview.
2023 Penn State Football Predictions & Season Preview
Penn State Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff
Penn State head coach James Franklin has been in Happy Valley since 2014. In that time, he has a 78-36 record and never missed bowl eligibility. The team retains offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who has plenty of experience calling plays. On defense, Manny Diaz enters his second year after significantly improving that unit this year.
Penn State Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
Sean Clifford finally ran out of eligibility for Penn State, who was the Big Ten’s fifth-highest-graded quarterback last year. However, the Nittany Lions now move forward with 2022 5-star recruit Drew Allar, who was the No. 4 quarterback in his recruiting class. In limited appearances last year, Allar completed 35 of 60 passes (58.3%) for 344 yards (5.7 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns. He also ran 18 times for 52 yards, showing off decent mobility. Behind him, Penn State will rely on some combination of Ben Pribula and Jaxon Smolik and pray that it does not need to use either one. Ultimately, this position should be solid as long as Allar can live up to his recruiting pedigree.
Running Back
Penn State has one of the deepest running back rooms in the country, headlined by Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton rushed 156 times for 1,057 yards and 12 touchdowns last year while catching 11 of 17 targets for another 85 yards. He averaged 4.58 yards after contact per attempt and a missed tackle on 21.8%. Allen is 5-foot-11, 211 pounds, and rushed 167 times for 864 yards and 10 touchdowns while catching 20 of 24 targets for 188 yards. He averaged 3.03 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 27.5% of his attempts. Together, these two proved to be one of the most efficient tandems in the country. This backfield also landed Minnesota transfer Trey Potts, who is 5-foot-11, 210 pounds, and rushed 102 times for 471 yards and three touchdowns last year. He averaged 3.11 yards after contact while forcing a missed tackle on 21.6% of his attempts. The backfield also landed 4-star freshman Landon Montgomery. The group contains elite talent and depth ahead of 2023.
Wide Receiver
If there’s a weakness on Penn State’s rosters, it is receiver. The team lost Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley this offseason. This leaves KeAndre Lambert-Smith as its leading returning receiver, who had 24 catches for 389 yards last year. Lambert-Smith is 6-foot-1, 182 pounds, and played in the slot 19.3% of the time. His 1.71 yards per route ranked 21st in the Big Ten last year. Its next-leading receiver from last year, Harrison Wallace III, caught 19 passes for 273 yards in a rotational role. He is 6-foot-1, 192 pounds, and posted 1.38 yards per route (39th) while playing in the slot 12.8% of the time. This will be Wallace’s third season. To smooth the edges, Penn State hit the transfer portal, adding Dante Cephas (Kent State) and Malik McClain (Florida State). Cephas is 6-foot-1, 178 pounds, and caught 48 passes for 746 yards and three touchdowns last year. He played in the slot just 17.9% of the time, but his 3.12 yards per route led all MAC receivers. McClain is 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, and enters his third college season. He caught 17 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns last year. McClain played in the slot 12.1% of the time and averaged 1.46 yards per route (37th in ACC). Other players competing for a role include Malick Meiga, Omari Evans and Kaden Saunders. Evans is 6-foot-0, 179 pounds, but drew praise from the coaches after a strong spring. Meiga is 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, and has reportedly competed with McClain for a role. Saunders is a 4-star recruit from 2022 and was the 55th-ranked player in that class.
Tight End
Penn State lost Brenton Strange to the NFL, but it retains a deep tight end room. Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren both played quite a bit last year. Johnson is 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, and enters his fourth season with the program. He blocked on 55% of his 478 snaps and was excellent doing so. He also caught 20 of 24 targets for 328 yards and four touchdowns, which equated to 1.58 yards per route. He lined up in the slot on 38.3% of his routes. Warren is 6-foot-6, 256 pounds, and also enters his fourth season he blocked on 62% of his 250 snaps, where he also excelled. Warren caught 10 of 15 targets for 123 yards and three touchdowns (1.34 yards per route). He was in the slot on 32.5% of his routes. Absurdly, Penn State also landed three 4-star freshman tight ends in Andrew Rappleyea, Joey Schlaffer and Mathias Barnwell. Schlaffer and Barnwell are already on campus.
Offensive Line
The Penn State offensive line lost center Juice Scruggs and right tackle Bryce Effner. It returns left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who played 542 snaps last year. Fashanu received some early NFL Draft hype before deciding to return to school. Left guard Landon Tengwall played 278 snaps last year, but he only made it through five games. Hunter Nourzad will be playing center after playing mostly left guard last year. He took a few snaps at center, so this is the most logical transition for the offensive line with Scruggs off to the NFL. Right guard Sal Wormley returns after 818 snaps last year. Finally, Drew Shelton looks like the new right tackle after 379 snaps in relief last year. This unit wasn’t great last year, but the returning experience should allow this unit to take a step forward. It also had swing tackle Caedan Wallace play 340 snaps last year. Wallace or Shelton should lock down the other tackle spot. Penn State also has a ton of incoming highly recruited freshmen, and it would not be a shock to see some of them play.
Penn State Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense
Penn State ranked 31st on defense in 2022. This included the 96th-ranked run defense, sixth-ranked pass rush and 24th-ranked secondary. The Nittany Lions lost some premier players like Ji’Ayir Brown, Joey Porter Jr., P.J. Mustipher, Jalen Reed and Jonathan Sutherland. With that said, they rotated quite a bit and return plenty of starting production.
Defensive Line
On the edge, Penn State returns a pair of starters in Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson. The pair played 505 and 455 snaps last year. Isaac led the team with 11 tackles for loss while contributing four sacks. Robinson logged 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks himself, making this an excellent pairing. Only rotational piece Nick Tarburton departs here but Penn State’s excellent recruiting over the years should fill the gaps. Amin Vanover played 256 snaps last year as well.
On the inside, Mustipher departs, but Hakeem Beamon returns 428 snaps. Beamon logged six tackles for loss and will continue to clog the middle. The next man up looks like Coziah Izzard after 194 snaps last year. Izzard previously played 495 snaps in 2021, giving him more experience than most linemen stepping into a larger role. Finally, Penn State added Old Dominion transfer Alonzo Ford Jr. Ford played 523 and 462 snaps over the last two seasons on the interior. Rotational players like Dvon Ellies and Zane Durant both return.
Linebacker
Penn State returns Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs. These two played 514 and 550 snaps for Penn State last year. Carter ranked second on the team with 56 tackles. He also played well off the edge with 10.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Likewise, Jacobs ranked third on the team with 52 tackles. To replace Sutherland, Kobe King looks like the next man up. King actually played 310 snaps last year and ranked fifth on the team with 41 tackles himself. Even Tyler Elsdon returns after playing 422 snaps last year. This should be a position of strength again for Penn State.
Defensive Back
The corner position comes in with questions following the departure of Porter. However, Penn State returns two starters in Kalen King and Johnny Dixon. King played 557 snaps last year and led the team with 16 pass breakups. Dixon played 479 snaps and recorded 10 pass breakups himself. These two form an excellent starting tandem at corner. The slot could be Daequan Hardy, who played 235 snaps last year. Hardy broke up four passes in a limited role last year. Penn State also added Mississippi State transfer Audavion Collins, but he failed to see the field last year.
Safety could be much harder to replace with Brown and Reed both departing. Keaton Ellis returns after playing 391 snaps last year. He ranked fourth on the team with seven pass breakups. The starter opposite Ellis could be Kevin Winston Jr. after 114 snaps. Winston is a former 4-star recruit and should play more here. Zakee Wheatley also played 372 snaps last year and could be an option moving forward.
2023 Penn State Football Schedule & Predictions
Penn State Football 2023 Schedule
Penn State plays a non-conference schedule consisting of West Virginia, Delaware and UMass, which should lead to three easy wins. It crosses over against Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern from the Big Ten West. Fortunately, it draws Iowa in Happy Valley for the whiteout game. Then Penn State plays the usual suspects from the Big Ten East. It travels to Ohio State but draws Michigan at home. Penn State’s season will come down to those two games, just like last year.
Penn State Football Futures Bet & Prediction
For those playing Penn State’s win total, the Nittany Lions will be clear favorites in all but two games this year. Perhaps Iowa will be close, but current look ahead lines peg Penn State as the favorite. With that said, this Penn State roster is not too far away from Michigan and Ohio State. For that reason, sprinkling Penn State +600 to win the Big Ten makes plenty of sense here.
Best Penn State Football Futures Bet: Big Ten Winner +600 at FanDuel
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
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