2023 Purdue Football Predictions and Season Preview

Purdue football finished the 2022 season with a solid 8-6 record on their way to a Big Ten Championship appearance. The Boilermakers only lost to Penn State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and LSU. Their best wins included Maryland, Minnesota and Illinois.

DraftKings Sportsbook puts the Purdue win total at 5.5, with the under juiced to -165. Purdue also sits at +8000 to win the Big Ten, which ranks just ahead of Michigan State, Rutgers, Northwestern and Indiana. They also sit at +1600 to win the Big Ten West, which also ranks ahead of Northwestern. With that said, let’s dive into our 2023 Purdue football season preview.

2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

With Jeff Brohm taking the Louisville head coaching job, Purdue will break in an entirely new head coaching staff in 2023. They now bring in former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. Walters held this position for two years, fielding one of the top defenses in College Football. He is also known for elite player development, turning relatively unknown players like Devon Witherspoon into top five NFL Draft picks. At offensive coordinator, he hired Graham Harrell, who most recently coordinated West Virginia’s offense in 2022. He previously coached in the same position for USC from 2019-2021 and should retain some air raid concepts. On defense, Walters hired Kevin Kane, who coached Illinois’ linebackers from 2021-2022. Walters will likely have a big impact on what happens on this side of the ball.

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Offense

Quarterback

Purdue finally moves on from Aidan O’Connell, who currently plays for the Las Vegas Raiders. They added former Texas quarterback Hudson Card to help fill the void. Card is 6-foot-2, 201 pounds, and completed 75 of 109 passes (68.8%) for 928 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), six touchdowns and one interception last year. Card offers some mobility with 46 yards on 17 carries last year. However, he only has 74 career rushing yards, averaging 1.6 yards per attempt. According to Pro Football Focus, Card finished as the 11th-graded quarterback in the Big 12 last year. His career efficiency numbers include a 65.5% completion percentage for 7.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Behind him, it looks like Arizona State transfer Bennett Meredith will serve as the backup with Brady Allen transferring out. Meredith originally came to school as a 3-star recruit in 2022. Purdue also has 3-star redshirt freshman Ryan Browne on the roster. While Card originally entered college as a premier recruit, he has not lived up to his pedigree. Behind him, Purdue remains entirely unproven at the position, making quarterback a concern for Purdue in 2023.

Running Back

Purdue returns leading rusher Devin Mockobee. He is 6-foot-0, 195 pounds, and rushed 194 times for 963 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 32 of 45 targets for 274 yards last year. He averaged a somewhat efficient 2.97 yards after contact, but he also forced a missed tackle on 23.2% of his attempts. Second-leading rusher Dylan Downing also returns. Downing is 6-foot-0, 225 pounds, and rushed 93 times for 351 yards and four touchdowns while catching 11 of 12 targets for 94 yards. He averaged 2.34 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 14.9% of his attempts. Interestingly, Purdue moved receiver Tyrone Tracy to running back. Tracy did carry the ball 17 times for 138 yards last year while logging 28 receptions for another 198 yards. He is 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, and should function as a pass catching back at the very least. With decent experience returning, running back should be viewed as a position of strength for Purdue.

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Wide Receiver

Purdue lost their stud receiver Charlie Jones to the NFL this off season. Broc Thompson also unexpectedly retired, leaving the position somewhat thin. Fortunately, Purdue returns their third leading receiver T.J. Sheffield. Sheffield is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, and caught 46 of 73 targets for 480 yards and four touchdowns. He played outside 79.5% of the time and recorded 1.13 yards per route, which ranked 50th in the conference. It looks like he should man the slot here. Mershawn Rice also returns as the team’s fourth leading receiver last year. Rice is 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, and caught 23 of 37 targets for 283 yards and one touchdown. He played 97.7% of his snaps outside and logged 1.17 yards per route, which ranked 47th. For depth, Purdue also retains Abdur Rahmaan-Yaseen, Andrew Sowinski and Elijah Canion. Sowinski led this group with nine receptions last year, which opens the door for other receivers to step up. Notably, Rahmaan-Yaseen is a 4-star recruit. Canion transferred into Purdue after originally going to Auburn as a borderline 4-star recruit. This group has some capable players, but they have yet to make the jump to the next level. Another potential option is Florida Atlantic transfer Jahmal Edrine. Edrine is 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, and caught 39 passes for 570 yards and six touchdowns last year. He played out wide 84.1% of the time and logged a strong 1.71 yards per route run. It would not be surprising to see him start alongside Sheffield and Rice this year. This group likely takes a step back with the departure of Jones and the lack of proven players who could step up.

Tight End

Purdue lost Payne Durham to the NFL, leaving a void at tight end. Fortunately, Paul Piferi is back for his third season. He blocked on 46% of his 291 snaps last year, with subpar results. As a receiver, he caught 10 passes for 143 yards and 0.95 yards per route. He was in the slot on 53.5% of routes, which does look intriguing for the pass game. The team also gets Garrett Miller back, who did not play in 2022 due to an August injury. Miller is 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, and played 415 snaps in 2021. He blocked on 53% of these snaps, but he also caught 19 of 27 passes for 165 yards. They also have Ben Furtney back after one catch last year. He should be expected to play a depth role.

Offensive Line

Purdue lost left guard Spencer Holstege and left tackle Eric Miller along the offensive line. They return the entire right side, starting with right tackle Mahamane Moussa. He played 855 snaps last year in his first season as a starter. They may elect to move Moussa to the left side, but he should handle one of the starting tackle positions. Marcus Mbow also played 716 snaps at right guard, starting for the first time last year. Finally, Gus Hartwig played 809 snaps at center after starting for the last three seasons. He should be the leader of this group in 2023. Purdue will likely rely on transfers and depth pieces. Bowling Green transfer Jalen Grant is the leading candidate to play left guard. He started two seasons with Bowling Green prior to making the jump. Daniel Johnson started a few games at right tackle last year before going down with injury. He could be an option at either tackle position. Purdue did add Indiana Wesleyan transfer Ben Farrell as well. He was an All-American at that level of football last year and profiles as an interior piece. Preston Nichols also transferred in from UNLV after previously starting at Charleston Southern. He now has 2,599 snaps of experience, making incremental jumps up to the power five level. Purdue finally added interior offensive lineman Luke Griffin from Missouri. Griffin has 707 snaps of experience but has dealt with injuries throughout his career. Purdue’s offensive line might take a slight step back this year, but this position group should not be the weakest link on offense.

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Defense

Purdue ranked 107th on defense in 2022. This included the 110th-ranked run defense, 71st-ranked pass rush and 101st-ranked secondary. This defense lost a pair of starters from the secondary and linebacker position. With another three gone from the defensive line, this unit will have plenty to replace. Fortunately, Walters is a defensive coach and he added seven transfers to help fill this void.

Defensive Line

Along the edge, Purdue lost Jack Sullivan on the edge this offseason. This team will rotate personnel quite a bit and often use rushing backers off the edge. Kydran Jenkins returns after 577 snaps last year. He led the team with eight tackles for loss while recording four sacks in the process. They also return 346 snaps from Khordae Sydnor, who logged 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Nic Scourton also returns after 265 snaps. He proved a valuable depth piece with 22 tackles, two tackles for loss and two sacks. Even Scotty Humpich returns 234 snaps, which should give Purdue some solid depth on the edge.

On the interior, Purdue smashed the transfer portal, bringing in Jeffrey M’Ba (Auburn), Malik Langham (Vanderbilt) and Isaiah Nichols (Arkansas). Nichols played 422 snaps with the Razorbacks last year and will now enter his sixth collegiate season. He has never been very productive but should play in a rotation here. Langham played 337 snaps with Vanderbilt last year and now has 802 career snaps. Another player in college since 2018, Langham should also provide a veteran presence to this group. Finally, M’Ba played 82 snaps in 2022. He was the top JUCO defensive lineman in 2022 and a 4-star recruit. Purdue also returns Cole Brevard and Sulaiman Kpaka after 275 and 208 snaps. Even with Branson Deen and Lawrence Johnson departing, this should be a quality unit for Purdue.

Linebacker

At linebacker, Purdue lost Jalen Graham and Kieren Douglas. However, they return two players with starting experience in OC Brothers and Jacob Wahlberg. Together, the pair played 561 snaps and 341 snaps last year. Brothers finished with 42 tackles but proved an extreme liability in coverage. Wahlberg played a little better on fewer snaps, finishing with 41 tackles on the year. The team is almost entirely unproven behind these two. Players like Domanick Moon and Yanni Karlaftis find themselves on the two-deep with almost no experience. Altogether, this position group has major concerns and will rely on a jump forward from Brothers and Wahlberg in 2023.

Defensive Back

At corner, Purdue lost a pair of starters in Cory Trice and Reese Taylor, who were two of the better defenders on the team. They do return some starting experience with nickel corner Jamari Brown back after 476 snaps. He also played 733 snaps in 2021, giving him plenty of experience. Brown did log three pass breakups and three interceptions, but his coverage skills leave something to be desired. Purdue attacked the transfer portal, bringing in Marquis Wilson (Penn State), Salim Turner-Muhammad (Stanford) and Botros Alisandro (Snow College). Wilson only played 280 snaps last year and primarily defended the slot. He did have solid numbers, allowing just 56.5% of his targets to be caught. Turner-Muhammad played 214 snaps last year and struggled in coverage with an 84.2% catch rate into his coverage. Alisandro comes from the JUCO ranks, where he has almost no experience. Fortunately, Purdue flipped 4-star recruit Braxton Myers after he spent the spring with Ole Miss. Some view him as a safety, but corner remains a bigger weakness for this Boilermakers defense at the moment.

At safety, Purdue returns both of their starters in Sanoussi Kane and Cam Allen. Together the pair played exactly 772 snaps apiece. Kane occupied the box safety role and led the team with 72 tackles while adding three pass breakups and 4.5 tackles per loss. Allen functioned more as a coverage safety. He still logged 49 tackles, but he also defended six passes and logged three interceptions. Purdue also added Arkansas transfer Anthony Brown to the roster. He originally committed to Arkansas as a borderline 4-star/3-star recruit, but he failed to see the field in 2022. The top end of this position should be one of the best on this Purdue team.

2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Schedule

2023 Purdue Football Schedule

The Boilermakers play a non-conference schedule consisting of Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Within the conference, they draw Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana from the Big Ten East while playing the usual suspects in the West. Purdue does have to travel to Iowa and Nebraska, making this one of the most difficult Big Ten schedules.

2023 Purdue Football Futures Bet & Prediction

The Boilermakers over/under 5.5 wins is juiced to -165 towards the under. Purdue plays a difficult schedule inside and out of conference. Their non-conference features three games with tight odds. Big Ten play features two surefire losses in the crossover, while the West schedule does them little favors as well. Even if this team overachieves, it remains unlikely that they will win the Big Ten West, making them a tricky team to handicap. With few paths to six wins, Purdue under 5.5 wins will be the bet despite the juice.

Best Purdue Football Futures Bet: Under 5.5 Wins (-165 at DraftKings)

You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!

2023 Purdue Football Predictions and Season Preview

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2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Schedule

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2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Purdue Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Purdue Football Predictions & Schedule

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