Tennessee finished 2022 with an impressive 11-2 record. In fact, the Volunteers were a South Carolina upset away from potentially punching their ticked to the College Football Playoff. This year, sportsbooks seem to expect a slight step back. FanDuel Sportsbook currently gives Tennessee a 9.5-win total juiced to -188 on the under. However, FanDuel also pegs Tennessee with the fifth best chances to win the SEC at +1700 odds. With that said, let’s dive into some 2023 Tennessee football predictions, overview and more.
Tennessee Football Predictions, Futures & Roster Overview
From a coaching perspective, Josh Heupel returns for this third season after starting 18-8. Heupel did have to replace his offensive coordinator with Alex Golesch taking the USF job. Interestingly, Tennessee promoted from within, elevating former quarterbacks coach Josh Halzle. This should help with continuity year over year. On defense, Tim Banks remains in place for his third season as defensive coordinator. With Heupel driving the show on offense, this coaching staff enters the year with few concerns.
Tennessee Football Offense
At quarterback, Tennessee lost Hendon Hooker to the NFL, but they return Joe Milton III. Milton is a massive 6-5, 245 pounds and will enter his sixth year of college. Last year, he completed 53 of 82 passes (64.6%) for 971 yards (11.8 YPA), ten touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Milton isn’t the rusher Hooker was, but he accounted for 77 yards on 18 attempts (4.3 YPC) last year. He also only took four sacks last year, limiting negative plays. At this point, Milton is still a question mark after throwing just 296 balls in five years of college. However, the Tennessee offense does a good job of maximizing player’s strengths. Behind him, Tennessee has incoming five star freshman Nico Iamaleava, who is the third overall player in this class. This could quickly become a Drew Allar or Cade Klubnik situation, if Milton struggles at all. Gaston Moore should be the third string.
Tennessee returns their top three rushers in Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson. Wright stands 5-11, 200 pounds and rushed for 878 yards and ten scores on 146 attempts. Wright did fumble four times and he only caught two passes in the offense. However, he averaged 3.75 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle 24.7% of his attempts. Small comes in at 5-11, 213 pounds.
He rushed for 734 yards and 13 scores on 157 attempts without a fumble. He also caught 12 balls for 106 yards, but he dropped three passes as well. Small averaged 2.81 yards after contact with a forced missed tackle on just 16.5% of his attempts. While less efficient than Wright, Small provided the steadier play. Sampson stands 5-11, 190 pounds and rushed 58 times for 388 yards and six scores. He also caught all three of his targets for 24 yards in his first year with Tennessee. Sampson averaged 4.57 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 17.2% of his attempts. Overall, this is a position of strength for Tennessee.
Unfortunately, Tennessee loses their top two receivers in Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tilman to the NFL Draft. Tillman battled injury most of last year, allowing some younger players to step up for the Volunteers. Heading into 2023, they return their second, third, and fourth leading receivers in terms of yardage. Bru McCoy headlines this group after catching 52 balls for 667 yards and four scores. McCoy stands 6-3, 220 pounds and played in the slot 8.4% of the time. His 1.66 yards per route ranked 34th in the SEC last year.
Ramel Keyton ranked third on the team in receiving with 32 catches for 568 yards and five scores. Keyton stands 6-3, 195 pounds and played in the slot 9.8% of the time. His 1.98 yards per route ranked 25th in the SEC. Finally, Squirrel White finished with 29 catches for 475 yards and two scores. The 5-10, 160 pound receiver played in the slot 91.3% of the time and his 4.03 yards per route ranked first in the SEC. It should be noted, he only received 40 targets, so this remains a small sample.
Behind them, Dont’e Thornton transferred in from Oregon. Thornton stands 6-5, 199 pounds and caught 17 balls for 363 yards and one score last year. He played in the slot 38.1% of the time and recorded a solid 2.16 yards per route on his small sample. The rest of the two deep remains a question. Kaleb Webb was a four-star recruit and the 310th player in last year’s class. Chas Nimrod is another name from that class, climbing the two-deep. They also recruited four-star freshman Nathan Leacock in this year’s class. Leacock is the 73rd overall recruit this year.
At tight end, Tennessee lost Princeton Fant, but they return Jacob Warren. Warren stands 6-6, 250 pounds and caught 12 balls for 163 yards last year. While inefficient as a receiver, he blocked on 58% of his 478 snaps. Hunter Salmon returns after playing 92 snaps last year, which ranked third most at this position. However, Tennessee also brought in McCallan Castles from UC-Davis. McCastles stands 6-5, 233 pounds and caught 30 balls for 347 yards last year. He originally began his career with Cal and will now make his return to the FBS.
Along the offensive line, Tennessee lost right tackle Darnell Wright and left guard Jerome Carvin this offseason. They return both of their left tackles in Gerald Mincey and Jeremiah Crawford, who both saw the field due to injury. Mincey played 457 snaps and allowed just 12 pressures. He should be the frontrunner for this job. Tennessee also returns their center Cooper Mays. Mays played 894 snaps last year and will now enter his third season as a starter.
Javontez Spraggins returns as the final incumbent at the right guard position. Spraggins recorded 891 snaps and now has two years of starting experience already under his belt. The final two starters look likely to be transfers. Andrej Karic comes over from Texas after playing 540 snaps over the last three years. He has been up and down to this point, but the potential is there for him to start at left guard. At right tackle, John Campbell comes in from Miami. Campbell played 763 snaps last year and allowed a modest 19 pressures. His experience will be needed on this offensive line. Dayne Davis, Ollie Lane, and Parker Ball all played over 100 snaps for Tennessee last year and remain names to monitor. This unit played up and down last year, but the Tennessee scheme helps mask some of the deficiencies.
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Tennessee Football Defense
On defense, Tennessee ranked 91st in 2022. This included the 56th-ranked run defense, 102nd-ranked pass rush and 100th-ranked pass coverage. The Volunteers lose five players with starting experience, but they added four transfers and eight four-star recruits ahead of 2023.
On the defensive line Byron Young and LaTrell Bumphus depart, but four players return at least 300 snaps. Along the edges Tyler Baron and Roman Harrison accounted for 438 and 382 snaps. On the interior, Omari Thomas and Bryson Eason also provide starting experience. Tennessee only added Omarr Norman-Lott from Arizona State on the interior, so it seems the Volunteers with rely on a step forward from these incumbent players.
At linebacker, Aaron Beasley returns after a strong 2022 campaign. Beasley led Tennessee in tackles and will provide a veteran presence for the defense. With Jeremy Banks and Juwan Mitchell departing, Tennessee added BYU transfer Keenan Pili. Pili recorded 62 tackles with BYU last year and should immediately start. For depth, Caleb Williams also transferred in from Liberty.
The secondary showed major vulnerabilities for Tennessee at times last year. To help bolster the unit, the Volunteers added BYU transfer Gabe Jeudy-Lally. Jeudy-Lally started last year and broke up seven passes for the Cougars. Tennessee returns five players with at least 450 snaps in the secondary, but Jeudy-Lally should find a starting spot quickly. Among the incumbents Kamal Hadden, Doneiko Slaughter, and Tamarion McDonald fill out the corner positions. Slaughter and McDonald broke up seven and six passes apiece and should be the favorites to start alongside Jeudy-Lally. At safety, Jaylen McCollough and Welsey Walker remain in place. Walker played particularly well last year, leading this group with four pass breakups. It’s hard to envision Tennessee’s secondary being any worse, considering the experience they return and talent they acquired on the back end.
Tennessee Football Schedule
Schedule wise, Tennessee comes in middle of the road. Their non-conference features Virginia, Austin Peay, UTSA, and Connecticut. Austin Peay provides gimme win, while Virginia has struggled of late. UTSA and Connecticut have been better recently, but Tennessee should be a large favorite in both games as well. From the SEC West, Tennessee draws Alabama and Texas A&M. Within their division, Georgia travels to Knoxville, but Tennessee has to travel to Florida, Missouri, and Kentucky. Overall, this schedule remains fairly difficult.
Tennessee Football Win Total Prediction: With their schedule, Tennessee should be a clear underdog to Alabama and Georgia. Texas A&M should be close to a pick’em and Tennessee should be favored the rest of the way. However, many of the SEC East teams have made roster upgrades, while Tennessee will largely rely on improvements from within the roster. With that said, the SEC East remains a two-horse race between Georgia and Tennessee. At +1700 odds to win the SEC, taking a stab at this market makes more sense than a severely juiced 9.5 win total. With that said, over 9.5 wins at +146 correlates with an SEC title.
