UCF football finished the 2022 season with a solid 9-5 record and AAC runner up to Tulane. The Knights only lost to Louisville, East Carolina, Navy, Tulane, and Duke in the bowl game. With that said, they had strong wins over SMU, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Tulane in the regular season. This team played six games that came down to single digits last year.
DraftKings Sportsbook puts the UCF win total at 6.5 with the over juiced to -175. UCF also sits at +3500 to win the Big 12, which tied Kansas, but ranks middle of the pack in this conference. With that said, let’s dive into our 2023 UCF football season preview.
2023 UCF Football Predictions & Season Preview
2023 UCF Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff
Now entering year three of the Gus Malzahn era, UCF has back to back nine win season under the former Auburn coach. Overall, the Knights have an 18-9 record over the last two years. Interestingly, UCF now replaces both coordinators. On offense, UCF brought in Darin Hinshaw, who most recently coordinated UAB’s offense in 2022. Prior to that, he worked as an offensive analyst with UCF and Malzahn in 2021. On defense, Addison Williams received a promotion after coaching defensive backs for UCF from 2021-2022. Overall, the continuity here should be a positive for UCF.
2023 UCF Football Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
At quarterback, UCF returns former Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee. Last year, Plumlee completed 218 of his 346 pass attempts (63%) for 2,586 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Plumlee also has excellent mobility with 862 yards and 11 scores on 159 carries last year. These numbers include 29 sacks, which could improve Plumlee’s rushing numbers further this year if positive regression occurs.
Ultimately, Plumlee still has work to do as a passer. He finished ninth in the AAC last year as a pure passer, according to PFF. However, he jumps to seventh when factoring in the rushing. Overall, 2023 should be spent focusing on avoiding the negative plays within Plumlee’s game.
Behind him, UCF added three transfers in Timmy McClain (South Florida), Xavier Williams (Charlotte), and Gunnar Smith (South Florida). McClain has the best shot at earning backup duties after playing considerably in 2021. With USF, he completed 55.3% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, five scores, and seven interceptions. McClain does offer some mobility with 238 yards on 123 attempts that season.
Williams played (poorly) in a few games with Charlotte last year. He threw 67 times for 420 yards (6.3 yards per attempt), two scores, and two interceptions. Also mobile, Williams rushed 26 times for 108 yards. Smith has yet to play in his career. While they lost backup Mikey Keene to transfer, this quarterback should still be a strength for UCF in 2023.
Running Back
While Plumlee actually led the team in rushing last year, UCF lost their top running back in Isaiah Bowser. Last year, Bowser accounted for 799 rushing yards and 15 scores on 205 attempts. He also caught 14 passes for 185 yards. However, UCF returns Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey from last year’s team.
Harvey in particular burst onto the scene with 796 rushing yards on 118 attempts. The 5-8, 195 pound back also caught 22 balls for 215 yards. Overall, he averaged 3.57 yards after contact and a forced missed tackle on 32.2% of his attempts. Richardson finished with 370 rushing yards on 54 attempts, while catching 22 balls for 122 yards. Richardson only stands 5-7, 170 pounds, but he averaged 3.91 yards after contact and a forced missed tackle on 24.1% of his attempts.
With both backs coming in a little undersized, UCF added Demarkcus Bowman (Florida) and Kam Ingram (Bethune-Cookman) for depth. Bowman stands 5-10, 193 pounds and has 23 career rushing attempts through his three college seasons. Bowman originally joined Clemson as a five-star recruit in 2020. Ingram stands 5-8, 175 and should provide depth here. While losing Bowser will be tough, Harvey proved far more explosive last year. More work for Harvey should mean good outcomes for this backfield.
Wide Receiver
At receiver. UCF lost Ryan O’Keefe to Boston College. However, they return their top two options in Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson. Baker originally transferred into the program from Alabama last year. He led the team with 56 receptions for 796 yards and five scores. Baker stands 6-1, 208 pounds and played out wide 88.7% of the time. His 2.03 yards per route ranked 16th in the AAC last year.
Former Auburn transfer, Hudson finished third on the team in receiving with 39 receptions for 641 yards and seven scores. Hudson stands 6-1, 200 pounds and played out wide 54.7% of the time. His 1.90 yards per route ranked 21st in the conference last year.
From there, UCF should rely on transfers for WR3 snaps. Corey Gammage comes in from Marshall, where he caught 52 balls for 774 yards and six scores last year. Over the last two years, Gammage has 130 receptions for 1,643 yards and eight scores. He stands 6-4, 220 pounds and plays out wide over 90% of the time. He also posted an elite 2.03 yards per route.
They also added Trent Whittemore from Florida. Whittemore’s best season came in 2021, where he caught 19 balls for 210 yards. Whittemore stands 6-3, 206 pounds, but he plays in the slot 81.6% of the time. He has a career 1.44 yards per route and should be a weapon if he can remain healthy.
For depth purposes, UCF also added Kentucky transfer Chauncey Magwood. Magwood stands 6-0, 109 pounds, but he only has eight catches since 2021. Finally, last year’s WR4 Xavier Townsend returns after 23 catches for 127 scoreless yards. Townsend stands 5-11, 180 pounds and played in the slot 50.9% of the time. Overall, he logged a modest 1.24 yards per route last year. Ultimately, this UCF wide receiver room will be in a very good spot ahead of 2023.
Tight End
At tight end, UCF returns their top two options in Alec Holler and Zach Marsh Wojan. Holler played 899 snaps last year, blocking on 63% of those. Holler stands 6-3, 230 pounds and caught 22 balls for 276 yards and one score last year. Behind him, Wojan played 399 snaps, blocking on 77% of those. He stands 6-5, 245 pounds, so the extra blocking makes sense for him. From there, freshman tight end Randy Pittman has allegedly impressed this spring. A four-star, per some recruiting services, Pittman appears to have quickly ascended the depth chart. He profiles more as a pass catcher than a blocker. Overall, this tight end room will be in solid shape ahead of the 2023 season.
Offensive Line
Along the offensive line, UCF lost three starters from last years team, including left guard Samuel Jackson, center Matthew Lee, and tackle Ryan Swoboda. This leaves left tackle Tylan Grable and starting right guard Lokahi Pauole on the roster. Grable previously started at Jacksonville State before joining UCF last year. He played 1,013 snaps and did a solid job against a jump in competition. Pauole has three years of starting experience as well, which will be needed here. The team then projects to rely pretty heavily on transfers.
Alabama transfer Amari Kight played right tackle in spring, but profiles more as an interior lineman. He is a former four-star recruit, but he only played 164 snaps in his four-year career with Alabama. Center looks like Fresno State transfer Bula Schmidt, who comes in with two years of starting experience. Right tackle could be Kent State transfer Marcellus Marshall, who actually played left tackle for the Golden Flashes. He has been repping inside during the spring. Kight and Marshall could flip flop between guard and tackle this summer, but this should be the projected starting five offensive linemen.
Because of the transfers, UCF actually has decent depth along the offensive line. The best of which is former starter Ed Collins. Collins actually started for UCF in 2020 before losing his job. He stuck around the program and now has a chance to re-emerge. They also added Stanford transfer Drake Metcalf, who played 173 snaps in two seasons with the Cardinals. He is most likely an interior player, but this group could shift as fall camp starts. Even with the additions, it is hard to envision them playing at the same level again this year.
2023 UCF Football Season Preview: Defense
UCF ranked 77th on defense in 2022. This included the 63rd-ranked run defense, 99th-ranked pass rush and 76th-ranked secondary. This defense lost four contributors in the secondary and a linebacker starter. However, they return most of their front seven and added nine transfers in the transfer portal. Three four-star recruits also enter the program on the defensive side of the ball.
Defensive Line
Along the defensive line, UCF returns Tre’Mon Morris-Brash and Josh Celiscar on the edge. Morris-Brash played 738 snaps last year and led the team with 13 tackles for loss and six sacks, along with 52 tackles. Celiscar played a little worse, but he still finished with 54 tackles, nine tackles for loss and three sacks. If Celiscar cannot make a jump, UCF added FIU transfer Shaun Peterson Jr. Last year, Peterson played 446 snaps and registered a strong 21 quarterback pressures. Four-star freshman Isaiah Nixon also joins this rotation, which should be a strength for UCF in 2023.
On the interior, Ricky Barber and Anthony Montalvo both return. The pair logged 681 and 624 snaps last year, providing strong run defense numbers. Barber finished with 49 tackles, nine tackles for loss and three sacks. Meanwhile, Montalvo registered 43 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and two sacks himself. For depth, Matthew Alexander also returns 286 productive snaps. UCF also landed former Oklahoma commit Derrick LeBlanc, who comes in as a four-star prospect. They also recruited four-star freshman John Walker themselves. Overall, this defensive line unit should be expected to take a step forward in 2023.
Linebacker
At linebacker, UCF lost Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, but they return leading tackler Jason Johnson. Last year, Johnson played 867 snaps, finishing with 126 tackles, four tackles for loss, and one sack. He figures to anchor this defense. UCF also returns Walter Yates, who played 381 snaps last year as more of a rotational piece. Yates finished tied for third on the team with 54 tackles. However, he proved to be a liability in coverage.
UCF added Rian Davis (Georgia) and Isaiah Paul (Incarnate Word) in the transfer portal to bolster the position. Davis initially came to Georgia as a four-star recruit, but he only played 212 snaps with the Bulldogs to this point in his career. Paul has multiple years of starting experience at the FCS level and should play a rotational role here. Finally, UCF added four-star freshman Andrew Harris at the linebacker position. He should play sooner rather than later for an overall strong linebacker room in Orlando.
Defensive Back
At corner, UCF lost Davonte Brown and Justin Hodges. However, they return Brandon Adams and Corey Thornton. The pair accounted for 460 and 651 snaps last year. Thornton led the team with seven pass breakups, while logging 50 tackles. Adams defended four passes himself and logged 34 tackles. UCF hit the portal hard at the corner position, bringing in Decorian Patterson (Middle Tennessee State), Fred Davis II (Clemson), and Ja’Maric Morris (JUCO).
Patterson now has four years of starting experience and over 2,000 snaps to his name. Davis comes over from Clemson, where he played 501 snaps in three years with the Tigers. Davis is a former four-star recruit from the 2020 class. Morris comes from the JUCO ranks and should serve as more of a depth piece. With UCF’s corners struggling a bit last year, this could be an addition by subtraction situation.
At safety, UCF lost Divaad Wilson and Koby Perry. Perry did rank second on the team in tackles. Wilson broke up four passes and logged three interceptions. The team does return Quadric Bullard, who played 324 snaps last year. Bullard played well on his limited snaps with 27 tackles and three passes defended.
They also added East Carolina transfer Jireh Wilson, who started for three straight years. He now has 1,821 snaps to his name. This position also has solid depth with Jarvis Ware returning 350 snaps. Ware recorded 41 tackles and broke up four passes, giving UCF solid depth here. They also have Demari Henderson for depth, along with Texas State transfer DeJordan Mask. Mask also has three years of starting experience with elite coverage numbers in 2022. Altogether, this secondary should be ready for a step forward.
2023 UCF Football Predictions & Schedule
2023 UCF Football Schedule
The Knights play a non-conference schedule consisting of Kent State, Boise State, and Villanova. Inside Big 12 play, they face a tough schedule in Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor, and Kansas. They also draw some weaker teams like Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Houston. Aside from an easy non-conference, this is a relatively difficult conference schedule.
2023 UCF Football Futures Bet & Prediction
The Knights over/under 6.5 wins is juiced to -175 towards the over. UCF has a strong shot at 3-0 in non-conference play, meaning they just need four wins inside the Big 12. Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Houston should get this team to six wins, but they’ll need to pick off another to reach seven. With the juice getting out of control on the over, the under actually makes more sense here as a longshot.
Best UCF Football Futures Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (+145 at DraftKings)
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
- Alabama Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona Season Preview & Predictions
- Arizona State Season Preview & Predictions
- Arkansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Auburn Season Preview & Predictions
- Baylor Season Preview & Predictions
- Cal Season Preview & Predictions
- Clemson Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida State Season Preview & Predictions
- Georgia Season Preview & Predictions
- Illinois Season Preview & Predictions
- Indiana Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kentucky Season Preview & Predictions
- Louisville Season Preview & Predictions
- LSU Season Preview & Predictions
- Maryland Season Preview & Predictions
- Miami Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan State Season Preview & Predictions
- Minnesota Season Preview & Predictions
- Mississippi State Season Preview & Predictions
- Missouri Season Preview & Predictions
- Nebraska Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- North Carolina State Season Preview & Predictions
- Notre Dame Season Preview & Predictions
- Ohio State Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma State Season Preview & Predictions
- Ole Miss Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon Season Preview & Predictions
- Oregon State Season Preview & Predictions
- Penn State Season Preview & Predictions
- Rutgers Season Preview & Predictions
- South Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- TCU Season Preview & Predictions
- Tennessee Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- UCLA Season Preview & Predictions
- USC Season Preview & Predictions
- Utah Season Preview & Predictions
- Vanderbilt Season Preview & Predictions
- Virginia Tech Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington Season Preview & Predictions
- Washington State Season Preview & Predictions
- West Virginia Season Preview & Predictions
- Wisconsin Season Preview & Predictions
