2023 Virginia Football Predictions and Season Preview

Virginia football finished the 2022 season with a disappointing 3-7 record. Their only wins came against Richmond, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers did have a few single digit losses, but this team struggled mightily in 2022.

DraftKings Sportsbook puts the Virginia win total at 3.5, with the under juiced to -145. Virginia also sits at +30000 to win the ACC, which ranks dead last. With that said, let’s dive into our 2023 Virginia football season preview.

2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott now enters his second season as head coach after a 3-7 record last year. Elliott inherited a poor situation for a school with rigorous admission and transfer standards. Des Kitchings returns as offensive coordinator after previously coaching running backs for the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. On defense, John Rudzinski comes back after previously coordinating Air Force’s defense from 2018 to 2021. There is legitimate concern regarding the feasibility of winning at Virginia during the transfer portal era. It is possible that Elliott and his staff are simply put at a disadvantage by the university that cannot be overcome.

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Offense

Quarterback

Virginia lost longtime starter Brennan Armstrong this offseason. To replace him, they will turn to some combination of Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett and incumbent Jay Woolfolk. Muskett was first team All-Big South twice in his career. He has 5,687 career passing yards and decent mobility. Last year, he rushed for 203 yards in just eight games, due to a knee injury. In 2022, he completed 64.1% of his passes for 9.0 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The biggest question for Muskett is the jump from FCS to the power five. Behind him, Woolfolk is 5-foot-11, 200 pounds. He has 22 career completions on 43 attempts (51.2%) for 245 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Woolfolk does have solid mobility behind his 104 rushing yards on 26 attempts. While Armstrong had a down year in 2022, there are few circumstances where the current situation provides an upgrade to the offense.

Running Back

Problematically, Armstrong led the team with 371 rushing yards last year. Behind him, Virginia returns their top three rushers in Perris Jones, Mike Hollins and Xavier Brown, which does not say much. With that said, it is likely that Clemson transfer Kobe Pace leads this group. Pace is 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, and has 152 career rushing attempts for 783 yards and nine touchdowns. He also has 23 catches for another 192 yards. Efficiency wise, Pace averaged 3.22 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 21% of his attempts. Jones is 5-foot-7, 180 pounds, and rushed 81 times for 364 yards, while catching six passes last year. He averaged 3.11 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 24.7% of his attempts. Hollins is 5-foot-9, 208 pounds, and rushed 53 times for 215 yards, while catching eight passes. He averaged 2.82 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 18.9% of his attempts. Finally, Brown is 5-foot-9, 186 pounds, and rushed 50 times for 210 yards, while catching nine passes. He averaged 2.8 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 26% of his attempts. Pace is by far the highest recruit in this backfield in recent memory. He will be an upgrade, but whether Virginia can block remains to be seen.

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Wide Receiver

Virginia lost their top four receivers Keytaon Thompson, Dontayvion Wicks, Lavel Davis and Billy Kemp V. The Cavaliers have brutal admission standards, which makes it hard for the program to acquire transfers. The top receivers should be Malachi Fields, Demick Starling and Northwestern transfer Malik Washington. Washington is 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, and caught 65 passes for 701 yards and one touchdown last year. He played in the slot 77.8% of the time and his 1.8 yards per route ranked slightly above average. Fields is 6-foot-4, 214 pounds, and played in just one game last year after an ACL tear in the spring. He caught five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown in his Week 11 return. He also caught 11 passes in 2021, which should leave Virginia fans somewhat optimistic. He has played out wide 79.8% of the time in his career with a decent 1.54 yards per route. Starling is 6-foot-0, 188 pounds, and caught 3 of 14 targets last year for 75 yards. He played out wide 91.2% of the time. If Starling cannot win the job, J.R. Wilson is another name to monitor. As a freshman last year, he caught five passes for 61 yards against North Carolina. He is 6-foot-4, 219 pounds, and should play the boundary. The other names in the two deep are unproven players like Ethan Davies and Dakota Twitty. Twitty is particularly interesting after tearing his ACL last year. He originally came to the program as a 4-star recruit. This group lost an absurd amount of talent and likely takes a big step back.

Tight End

Virginia returns their top two tight ends Grant Misch and Sackett Wood Jr., who basically split tight end snaps last year. Misch is 6-foot-5, 247 pounds, and blocked on 51% of his 426 snaps. As a receiver, he caught 17 passes for 129 scoreless yards last year. Wood is 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, and blocked on 52% of his 315 snaps last year. As a receiver, he caught 12 passes for 165 scoreless yards. Wood should be poised for a larger role after outplaying Misch across the board. This pairing should give Virginia quality tight end depth as well. This position could be a strength on an offense full of weaknesses.

Offensive Line

Virginia’s offensive line lost left tackle Logan Taylor, left guard John Paul Flores, right tackle Jonathan Leech and right guard Derek Devine. There are seven players in the mix for starting positions with Virginia. One or both of the tackle positions could be held by transfers. Ugonna Nnanna comes over from Houston after playing 28 snaps over the last three years. Jimmy Christ also comes over from Penn State after playing 72 snaps the last two years. The potential in-house replacement at tackle is McKale Boley, who played 135 snaps as a rotational piece last year. At guard, Virginia landed Brian Stevens, who will make the jump from Dayton. He posted two years of elite production at the FCS level. The other guard should be Noah Josey, who played well on 277 rotational snaps last year. Center has two players with experience in Ty Furnish and Jestus Johnson III. Furnish started ahead of Johnson last year and ended with 505 snaps. Neither player stood out, but Furnish has received more hype. With Virginia also changing offensive line coaches, this position remains a liability. However, they cannot get much worse than last year after ranking 127th in pass blocking.

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Defense

Virginia ranked 67th on defense in 2022. This included the 93rd-ranked run defense, 104th-ranked pass rush and 17th-ranked secondary. This defense lost four contributors from the secondary, including their two best corners. They also lost starter Nick Jackson at linebacker, which will loom large for this defense.

Defensive Line

Along the edge, Virginia returns most of their contributors. Kam Butler and Chico Bennett return after playing 575 and 502 snaps last year. Bennett led the team with seven sacks and added another 7.5 tackles for loss in the process. Butler also logged 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks, giving this unit some solid production at the top. They also return Paul Akere for depth after 250 snaps last year.

On the interior, Virginia returns Jahmeer Carter and Aaron Faumui. The pair played 408 and 461 snaps last year. Faumui led the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and added four sacks. He also stood up well against the run. Carter did not have as much production, but he still logged 29 tackles and one tackle for loss. The team also returns Ben Smiley and Olasunkonmi Agunloye, which should set up Virginia for a solid interior defensive line rotation. The defensive line should be the strength of this Virginia team.

Linebacker

At linebacker, Virginia lost their leading tackler in Jackson after he made 104 stops last year. Their two primary linebacker should be Josh Ahern and James Jackson. Jackson played 509 snaps last year and graded out well in coverage. He ranked third on the team with 60 tackles last year. Ahern only played 240 snaps, but he played decently, with 26 tackles. There is very little proven depth behind these two, leaving Virginia vulnerable at the position.

Defensive Back

At corner, Virginia saw some of their best players in Anthony Johnson, Fentrell Cypress II and Darius Bratton leave the program. The team projects to lean heavily on transfers with Malcolm Greene (Clemson) and Tayvonn Kyle (Iowa State) entering the program. Greene comes over with 472 snaps of experience in three seasons with the Tigers. Kyle has started at multiple times during his career and brings 1,229 snaps of experience. The final starter should be Jonas Sanker, who played 634 snaps last year. Sander finished with 63 tackles, two pass breakups and one interception as the team’s primary nickel. They also added Sam Westfall from SMU. Westfall played 464 snaps in his first season as a full-time starter and should provide depth here. Ultimately, this unit likely takes a step back given the departures.

At safety, Virginia returns Langston Long, Antonio Clary and Coen King. Clary and King played 543 and 348 snaps last year with solid stats. Clary ranked fourth on the team with 56 tackles, while breaking up one pass and recording an interception. King logged 44 tackles with one pass breakup and one interception. Long played 381 snaps and recorded 44 tackles. He also broke up a pair of passes, giving this team solid safety depth. Between these three, the safety position should be the strength of the secondary.

2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Schedule

2023 Virginia Football Schedule

The Cavaliers play a non-conference schedule consisting of Tennessee, James Madison, Maryland and William & Mary. Within the ACC they draw Louisville, North Carolina and Miami, but they dodge Clemson and Florida State. The team plays some other teams from the bottom of the division, but they project as underdogs in every ACC game this year.

2023 Virginia Football Futures Bet & Prediction

The Cavaliers over/under 3.5 wins is juiced to -145 towards the under. Virginia plays a difficult non-conference schedule with a cupcake in William & Mary mixed in. They project as favorites in two games at best and underdogs in every ACC matchup. With so much of the roster rebuilt, the under still looks like the sharpest play here.

Best Virginia Football Futures Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (-145 at DraftKings)

You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!

2023 Virginia Football Predictions and Season Preview

2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Schedule

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2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Season Preview

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Offense

2023 Virginia Football Season Preview: Defense

2023 Virginia Football Predictions & Schedule

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