The No. 17 UNC Tar Heels have a date with the App State Mountaineers on Saturday. When these teams met last year, they combined to score in the triple digits. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 2 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s App State-UNC odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 2 bet!
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App State-UNC Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 2
App State-UNC Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
App State: +800 | UNC: -1400
App State +19.5: -115 | UNC -19.5: -105
Over 58.5: -110 | Under 58.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
App State-UNC Pick & Prediction
When the App State Mountaineers and No. 17 UNC Tar Heels met last season, they combined to score a whopping 124 points. Both sides put at least 61 on the board as well. While such a repeat of last year’s high-scoring performance is unlikely, we don’t need these teams to equal their production from last year to cash the over — in fact, we only need them to score half of what they did in last year’s contest. UNC may have gotten better defensively during the offseason, but App State got worse, so I anticipate another high-scoring affair in Chapel Hill in Week 2.
UNC’s offense started the year off with a dominant showing against South Carolina. The Tar Heels currently rank 25th in yards per play (6.5), which is up from the 5.9 they averaged last season. Quarterback Drake Maye, who ranked 18th in passing efficiency with a 157.9 last year, got off to a great start by completing 66.7% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The backfield, composed of British Brooks and Omarion Hampton, added another two scores and 4.8 yards per rush.
Appalachian State’s offense looked good against FCS Gardner-Webb, which is important because this is a program in transition after quarterback Chase Brice’s departure. The Mountaineers lost starting quarterback Ryan Burger to an injury early, but Joey Aguilar, a JUCO transfer, came in and completed 84.6% of his passes for 13.4 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. Replicating that success against an FBS team won’t be easy, but Aguilar was an efficient JUCO passer, so his strong showing in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. He gets to work with a receiving corps that returns its top four options. Those four receivers combined for 12 receptions, 220 yards and three scores against UNC last year.
Both App State and UNC remain vulnerable on defense. The Mountaineers coughed up 4.8 yards per play and 24 points to FCS Gardner-Webb last week. The Tar Heels held Spencer Rattler and South Carolina to five yards per play and 17 points last week, but much of that falls on South Carolina’s empty running back room that totaled -2 yards on the ground. Rattler still averaged 9.1 yards per attempt; his Gamecocks were kept off the board by their 0-for-4 record on fourth down.
Check out our college football picks for Week 2! >>
In a surprising development — to me, at least — the total has actually ticked down since I touted the over 60.5 in the early week column. You’ll find the number set to 58.5 across the market now. Pregame reports that the over is a complete chalk play: 97% of the cash has come in on that side on 95% of the tickets. While those numbers certainly aren’t all that accurate because of Pregame’s limited sample — and because the number has moved down — I’m sticking to my guns and am still touting the over for this game. Sometimes the public is right.
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App State-UNC Week 2 Pick: Over 58.5 -108 at DraftKings
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