In one of the final games of Saturday’s college football card, the Auburn Tigers will take on the Cal Golden Bears. Neither team put together impressive campaigns last season and are looking to get back on track. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 2 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Auburn-Cal odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 2 bet!
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Auburn-Cal Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 2
Auburn-Cal Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Auburn: -205 | Cal: +168
Auburn -5.5: -110 | Cal +5.5: -110
Over 54.5: -105 | Under 54.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Auburn-Cal Pick & Prediction
The Auburn Tigers had a terrible start to the 2022 campaign, but they came out swinging under new head coach Hugh Freeze in Week 1. The Tigers throttled the UMass Minutemen, who had just earned some media attention after taking down New Mexico State in Week 0, by a 45-point margin. They have a road date scheduled against the Cal Golden Bears up next. Cal is coming off a dominant win as well, scoring a 37-point road victory over North Texas in Week 1, but the Golden Bears benefited from a ton of turnovers and didn’t run away with things until the second half.
This is a prime buy-low spot for the Tigers. Their dismal 5-7 campaign in 2022 has much of the public skeptical, but let’s not forget that Auburn still ranked 38th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index, which puts them far ahead of 74th-ranked Cal. The Tigers started Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne in Week 1, who ranked a dismal 73rd in passing efficiency at 131.2 after posting a much more respectable 148.1 in 2021. Getting Thorne was one of several offseason wins the Tigers recorded under Freeze. The Tigers also picked up boundary receiver Shane Hooks, who led Jackson State in receiving last year, and Jyaire Shorter, North Texas’ second-leading receiver and leading touchdown scorer.
Cal is likely better than last season, but the Golden Bears are trusting too many mediocre guys on offense for me to justify not backing Auburn here. Quarterback Jack Plummer is gone, replaced by NC State transfer Ben Finley. Finley wasn’t the starter at NC State last year but instead was a backup who saw action in three games. Finley completed 52.8% of his passes for six yards per attempt, three touchdowns and three interceptions, good for an atrocious passing efficiency grade of 106.6. He recorded a solid 143.3 in Week 1 against North Texas by completing 70.6% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one interception, but I’m still not impressed by him.
Auburn has a leg up defensively with an aggressive pass rush that is loaded with transfer talent and an aggressive secondary. The Tigers racked up four sacks and seven tackles for loss along with two takeaways, both by safety Jaylin Simpson. Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts, who joined the Tigers after leading Baylor’s defense for the last three seasons, has put together a scary unit that will cause problems for the Golden Bears. Baylor ranked 48th (5.3), 22nd (5) and 52nd (5.4) in yards allowed per play under Roberts.
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This line has actually moved against us since I advised backing Auburn to cover the 6.5 on Monday. You’ll now find the spread down to 5.5 or 6 in most places, which might be because of some unclear injury issues for the Tigers. Auburn has picked up only 50% of the cash despite attracting 64% of the tickets, per Pregame, which suggests that the Tigers are the public team. Still, I’m willing to sell high on Cal after they got bailed out by a ton of turnovers in order to buy low on Auburn. The Tigers should take this game by at least a touchdown.
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Auburn-Cal Week 2 Pick: Auburn -5.5 -110 at FanDuel
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