In an important Mountain West battle, the Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs will do battle at 10:30 ET on Friday. Don’t expect a ton of offense. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Boise State-San Diego State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 4. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
Boise State-San Diego State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Boise State-San Diego State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Boise State: -265 | SDSU: +215
Boise State -6.5: -115 | SDSU +6.5: -105
Over 45.5: -105 | Under 45.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Boise State-San Diego State Pick & Prediction
The Boise State Broncos will visit the San Diego State Aztecs late on Friday night. If you’re not busy, you know, having friends — and you like defensive football — then this one should be a fun watch. Boise State’s reputation as a great Group of Five team has been inflating their spreads of late, and you can buy their opponents as a 6.5-point home underdog (down by a half-point since the early week column) because of the market’s undeserved faith in the Broncos. To be fair, Boise State has played better offense this year — the Broncos rank 56th in yards per play (5.5) while the Aztecs rank a putrid 110th (4.4) — but San Diego State’s defense has actually caused problems for ranked opponents, while Boise State’s has not.
The Aztecs have lined up against No. 22 UCLA and No. 14 Oregon State over the last two weeks. They lost both games but gave up only 61 total points. Boise State faced No. 8 Washington in Week 1 and coughed up 56. San Diego State’s defense now ranks a dreadful 107th in yards allowed per play (6.4), but that’s still miles better than 131st-ranked Boise State (8.6). These defenses allowed 4.8 and 4.7 yards per play last year, respectively, so some regression to the mean is long overdue. With quarterbacks Taylen Green, who ranks 102nd in passing efficiency (110.7), and Jalen Mayden, who ranks 100th (112.7), leading the Broncos and Aztecs, respectively, I don’t expect a ton of offense on Friday night.
The total for this one sits at a reasonable 45-to-45.5, but the number is likely only that high because of who these teams have faced thus far. A look at the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), an opponent-adjusted metric, reveals that these defenses are probably significantly underrated by the market right now. Boise State ranks a solid 42nd defensively in the index through Week 3, while San Diego State is right behind at 45th. Offensively, Boise State ranks a so-so 54th, far ahead of 122nd-ranked San Diego State. The combination of inefficient quarterback play and slow-paced offenses should depress scoring.
Even a quick glance at the Boise State-San Diego State betting trends makes it clear that the under is a sharp bet. The Aztecs have opened the year 3-1 to the under, while Boise State has gone 1-2. But since 2021, Boise State is 17-11-1 to the under and San Diego State is 17-14. More importantly, the Aztecs are 14-8 to the under at home under head coach Brady Hoke. Boise State is a jaw-dropping 10-2-1 to the under on the road over the last three years, too.
Check out our college football picks for Week 4! >>
While I expected (and still expect) this number to close at or below the key number of 44, we haven’t seen much line movement yet. It’s down to just 45 at DraftKings but remains at 45.5 with the juice stacked on the under at FanDuel. Pregame reports that the under has drawn 76% of the cash on just 62% of the tickets, so we’re with the sharps on this one. While it’s worth noting that Pinnacle, a sharp book, still has the total at 45.5 with the juice favoring the over, further line movement before Friday’s late contest is inevitable. Get in at the best price you can find, which currently looks like the number hanging at FanDuel. Those who tailed the early week column got the under 45.5 at -110.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now with our FanDuel promo code, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets to build your bankroll, and it only takes a $5 bet from you!
Boise State-San Diego State Week 4 Pick: Under 45.5 -110 at FanDuel
Top College Football & Sportsbook Promotions
