After finishing the regular season 6-6, the Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the 6-6 Northern Illinois Huskies as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 53.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Arkansas State-Northern Illinois odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Camellia Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Camellia Bowl Pick: Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Bet
Camellia Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Arkansas State: -135 | Northern Illinois: +115
Arkansas State -2.5: -110 | Northern Illinois +2.5: -110
Over 53.5: -110 | Under 53.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 23 at 12:00 a.m. ET
Arkansas State-Northern Illinois News & Notes
Arkansas State Absences: TE Emmanuel Stevenson, iOL Jacob Bayer, CB Jordan Clark
Arkansas State Coaching Changes: N/A
Northern Illinois Absences: iOL Pete Nygra, S Devin Lafayette, WR Kacper Rutkiewicz, WR Davis Patterson, Edge George Gumbs
Northern Illinois Coaching Changes: N/A
Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Comparison
| Metric | Arkansas State | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 27th | 110th |
| Overall Offense | 42nd | 75th |
| Run Blocking | 16th | 32nd |
| Pass Blocking | 103rd | 31st |
| Pass Rate | 75th | 102nd |
| Overall Defense | 80th | 49th |
| Run Defense | 94th | 67th |
| Pass Rush | 109th | 84th |
| Coverage | 33rd | 40th |
Camellia Bowl Pick & Prediction
A battle of 6-6 teams, Arkansas State takes on Northern Illinois as a slight favorite in the Camellia Bowl. Both teams remains fairly intact here, but Northern Illinois has suffered a few more departures overall. Similarly, Northern Illinois also reached bowl eligibility with the weaker strength of schedule, setting up an interesting clash of styles her.
Starting with Arkansas State, the Red Wolves found something in freshman signal caller Jaylen Raynor. The new quarterback completed 58.6% of his passes for 9.0 yards per attempt, 15 scores, and six interceptions this year. Raylor also rushed for 324 yards, displaying solid dual threat ability.
While the offensive line skews heavily in favor of run blocking, this unit still proved competent throughout the year. On top of Raynor, the Arkansas State skill positions come loaded with power five transfers Courtney Jackson, Corey Rucker, and Ja’Quez Cross. In total, this offense ranked 61st in yards per play in 2023.
On paper, this Northern Illinois defense looks solid efficiency wise. However, they remain a difficult group to evaluate with a weak strength of schedule. Northern Illinois did register a lucky upset over Boston College in Week 1, but the rest of their victories look lackluster. This group includes wins over Akron, Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and Kent State. Only one of those teams ranks inside the top 80 and this NIU also fell to FCS Southern Illinois in Week 2.
As for the Northern Illinois offense, Rocky Lombardi continued to negatively regress throughout 2023. He finished with an awful 57% completion percentage for 6.9 yards per attempt. Lombardi also registered more turnover worthy plays than touchdowns throughout the year. He will also be without his one of his top two receivers, meaning the Huskies likely rely on their run game. Northern Illinois does have a solid offensive line to block for running back Antario Brown. However, that unit also lost center Pete Nygra to the transfer portal
As for the Arkansas State defense, this unit also leaves much to be desired. This team allowed 30+ points in their final two games, but they also faced a more difficult schedule in the Sun Belt. Prior to their two-game skid, The Red Wolves held Louisiana and South Alabama to 17 points or fewer. Both offenses rank well ahead of Northern Illinois in overall efficiency. While Arkansas State has already taken considerable money, this remains the sharp side of this game.
Camellia Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Arkansas State-Northern Illinois Bet: Arkansas State -2.5 (-110) at bet365
