The Ohio Bobcats will host the Central Michigan Chippewas on ESPNU tonight, and if you’re a sicko like me, you’ll be watching this game as you sweat out some bets. Let’s dig into today’s Central Michigan-Ohio odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 12 bet for Wednesday’s MACtion! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Central Michigan-Ohio Pick & Prediction for Wednesday MACtion
Central Michigan-Ohio Odds
Odds via FanDuel
CMU: +340 | Ohio: -450
CMU +10.5: -105 | Ohio -10.5: -115
Over 47.5: -105 | Under 47.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Nov. 15 at 7 p.m. ET
Central Michigan-Ohio Pick & Prediction
The Ohio Bobcats will host the Central Michigan Chippewas tonight in Athens, Ohio. The forecast calls for clear skies, little wind and temperatures in the mid-60s, so we’re not scheduled for football weather. Ohio is a sizeable favorite today with a 10.5-point advantage, per FanDuel, but I’m far more interested in the total. Let’s talk about why.
Ohio has been one of the most reliable teams for under bettors all season. They have gone 7-2-1 to the under this year while staying under by an average margin of 11.3. Central Michigan is 6-4 to the over but by an average margin of only +6.8.
The primary reason I’m investing in the under is because Ohio should control this game. The Bobcats have been playing effective complementary football all season, which is why they’ve been so profitable for under bettors. Ohio ranks 14th in average time of possession (32:27) and 112th in seconds per play (28.5). That has helped them limit their opponents to the sixth-fewest points per game (15.7). The offense, while efficient, hasn’t been so efficient as to overcome its slow pace: Ohio ranks 101st in points per game (21).
Central Michigan’s offensive struggles are a secondary reason to back the under, especially with a stingy Ohio defense on the other side of the field. The Chippewas rank 104th in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. Their success has stemmed from an effective running game, as they rank a respectable 53rd in EPA per rush — fifth-best in the MAC. Unfortunately, their ground game may struggle in this spot: Ohio’s defense ranks 20th in EPA allowed per rush, which leads the MAC.
My main concern here is that Central Michigan’s defense has played terribly. The Chippewas rank 105th in EPA allowed per play. Their defense has struggled to stop anything, as they rank 107th in EPA allowed per rush and 102nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Still, this Ohio offense has routinely failed (or deliberately chosen) to put up massive numbers against bad MAC defenses. When the Bobcats played Western Michigan in late October, the third-worst MAC team by EPA allowed per play, they scored only 20 points. The Bobcats did hang 42 on second-worst Kent State, but the Golden Flashes’ conference-worst offense kept handing the Bobcats favorable field position. CMU should put up more of a fight.
The books are taking action on the total at 46.5, 47 and 47.5. While 47 isn’t the most important of key numbers, over the last five years, 29% of games have stayed under 46.5 while 31% have stayed under 47.5. I’m willing to stomach the worse price for a marginally higher win rate. The 47.5 is just a touch too high — the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projects this one for 46.3 points, while Parker Fleming’s model lists it right at 43.6. You’ll find the under 47.5 priced at -115 on FanDuel but pretty much nowhere else, so take advantage of the off-market number over there. If you’re a new customer at FanDuel, use our FanDuel promo code for $150 in bonus bets after you place a $5 wager! You can find out how to optimally use your bonus bets here.
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Pick & Prediction: Under 46.5 -105 at BetMGM
