College football has finally returned in full, and we have a massive slate of games awaiting us this weekend. Thursday has some fun offerings, but Friday’s small slate stands out as a great spot for us to cook up a college football (CFB) teaser. Let’s dive into my CFB teaser picks for Week 1, which include picks for Miami Ohio-Miami Florida and Stanford Hawaii. You can check out the rest of my college football Week 1 picks here.
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CFB Teaser Week 1 | Picks for Miami Ohio-Miami Florida, Stanford-Hawaii
College Football Teaser Week 1: Miami Ohio-Miami Florida
Dubbed the “Confusion Bowl,” the Miami Ohio RedHawks will take on the Miami Florida Hurricanes in Coral Gables early on Friday. Those worried about Hurricane Idalia should know that rain is indeed in the forecast for Friday’s game, which is scheduled to get underway at 7 p.m. ET. That will make it much harder for the ‘Canes to cover a generous 17-point spread — so getting the RedHawks at a teased-down number of +23.5 should prove sharp.
The Hurricanes floundered around last year after opening the season as a ranked team, and I don’t understand why the market expects so much out of them on Friday. They ranked a pathetic 90th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Inefficiency on both sides of the ball contributed to that dismal ranking: the Hurricanes ranked 102nd in yards per play (4.8) and 71st in yards allowed per play (5.6). Meanwhile, the RedHawks ranked 104th in the FEI, 115th in yards per play (4.5) and 50th in yards allowed per play (5.3).
Both teams will return their starting quarterbacks for last season. For the Hurricanes, that’s Tyler Van Dyke, who ranked a sketchy 68th in passing efficiency at 133.3. For the RedHawks, that’s Brett Gabbert, who missed several games with an injury but would’ve ranked 65th with a 134.5. However, he recorded a 158.6 the season prior and owns a career grade of 143.3, right around Van Dyke’s career score of 147.8.
The Hurricanes have the resources to be a much better team than the RedHawks, but they weren’t close to 17 points better than them last year, and I don’t expect them to be 23.5 points better than them this year — especially with rain likely limiting the scoring for both teams. Let’s lock this one in for our CFB teaser picks.
College Football Teaser Week 1: Stanford-Hawaii
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors put up a fight against the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 0, putting up 28 points against a Power 5 defense. The ‘Dores shut them down for only 10 points in 2022, so they made a meaningful improvement on that side of the ball year-over-year. They’ll now face a bad Stanford Cardinal team that lost star quarterback Tanner McKee, so the books are listing the Warriors as only a 3.5-point home underdog. Let’s get some action on the total.
Hawaii just proved that it can take advantage of bad defenses. The ‘Dores ranked 128th in yards allowed per play (6.8) last season, which is just barely worse than 126th-ranked Stanford (6.7). Stanford’s defense even ranked 94th in the FEI, worse than 78th-ranked Vanderbilt. A large part of Hawaii’s success last week stemmed from aggressive play by quarterback Brayden Schager, who completed 77.1% of his passes for 10 yards per attempt and three scores. His two interceptions also helped put points on the board — just for the other team.
Stanford’s new quarterback, Ari Patu, is unproven but has seen action in the recent past and was reasonably successful. He has completed 56% of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and one interception across five games and 25 attempts. A dual-threat quarterback and former three-star recruit, Patu has a big frame and the athleticism necessary to have added 39 yards on six attempts. Although he lacks the same upside and experience as Vanderbilt’s quarterback, A.J. Swann, Patu should do plenty of damage against a Hawaii defense that also ranked 126th in yards allowed per play (6.7) and 128th in the FEI last season.
The total for Friday’s Stanford-Hawaii game is trading at 58.5, which is somewhat on the lower end. Hawaii and Vanderbilt combined to score 63 points last week, easily surpassing the closing number. Hawaii wasn’t a great team for over backers last year, but their offense has figured enough out where the Rainbow Warriors can contribute some points. Let’s tip our hats to head coach Timmy Chang as we trust the Warriors and the Cardinal to go over a teased-down total of 51.5.
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CFB Week 1 Teaser Pick: Miami Ohio +23,5/Stanford-Hawaii Over 51.5 -101 at FanDuel
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