Cash North Carolina State. The Wolfpack came through for the column last week, and we reap the rewards of another winner. This week takes a similar page from the book of chaos, as one top program is dealing with way too much off the field. It should come as little surprise this week’s upset lives in Happy Valley since Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has trouble up to his ears. This game should be an absolute battle, as expected with top level Big Ten opponents clashing, so let’s dive into the best CFB Week 11 upset pick.
CFB Week 11 Upset & Underdog Pick
Michigan-Penn State Upset Pick
While Harbaugh has issues off the field, the leap of faith comes in Penn State coach James Franklin figuring out his on-field issues. The latter may not come overnight, but so long as Franklin isn’t singlehandedly losing the game, his team has a chance. Let’s not bury the lead; Michigan is currently under massive fire for an alleged cheating scandal. Whether your moral compass agrees or disagrees with these allegations is inconsequential in the real world — try Twitter, maybe — it’s going to impact the team’s ability to prepare and execute. It’s a textbook distraction. The only problem is nobody has been good enough lately to take advantage of the issues facing the Wolverines football team. Franklin is not without his own issues, but these boil down to plays on the field and feel of the game. Those may be frustrating each week to endure as a fan or alumnus, but that’s not going to undue a nationally ranked Nittany Lions team — at least not yet.
For the first time this season, the Wolverines actually have an opponent worth its weight. To put it bluntly, they played absolutely nobody before this weekend. Apologies to any grads from Nebraska, Bowling Green, Rutgers or any other overmatched team Michigan plowed through so far, but those teams were never going to compete. There’s an opening right now for Penn State to attack, one that no other team has been talented enough to exploit until now.
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Penn State and James Franklin are still going to have to go out and beat a good football team. Michigan may have destroyed inferior talent, but it destroyed them for certain. The battle-tested Nittany Lions enter this matchup with a little more experience after losing a tight one to Ohio State on the road and embarrassing Iowa. There is some hidden value in their win last week over Maryland. While it may seem like a snooze fest with the Terrapins hammered into the ground, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar looked fantastic running the offense. Maybe more importantly, Allar looked comfortable throughout the day. It’s Michigan week at Happy Valley — let’s close it out with a win.
CFB Week 11 Upset Pick: Penn State +175 (Caesars Sportsbook)
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
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