The weekend is here, and that means it’s time for wall-to-wall college football action from noon through the late night! Our experts are here with their best college football expert picks against the spread for Week 5. Keep reading for their plays, but if you’re new to things and need some college football betting advice, check out our guide to college football betting strategy — or tail our free college football expert picks.
College Football Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 5
College Football Expert Picks Against the Spread: Week 5
Illinois @ Penn State Expert Pick Against the Spread
Hey, what’s up, The Profit Isaiah here. After a +4.5U showing last week, including a winner for Rutgers in last week’s article, I’m looking to build on my momentum in Week 5. We’ve got a bunch of interesting games on tap, but no current spread interests me more than Penn State versus Illinois.
I say “current” because I posted Washington State +8 (now +6.5) and Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 (now +6.5) to my subscribers at The Profit Isaiah earlier in the week. Obviously, those numbers are gone, and chasing teams below key numbers isn’t a good long-term strategy.
I like Illinois here because of how much more consistent the offense has looked under quarterback Luke Altmyer this season. Through four games last year, Altmyer had thrown seven interceptions. This year, he has thrown zero.
Altmyer and the Illinois offense now rank 44th in offensive EPA. The defense is a steady 35th. On the other side, Penn State ranks an electric ninth in offensive EPA and 10th in defensive EPA, but they’ve played some cupcake teams, including Kent State.
Altmyer threw four picks against Penn State last year before getting benched. The Illini still only lost by 17. They lost the yardage battle by just 29. If he can minimize turnovers, that should make up for Penn State’s gains and the home field advantage.
We’re getting three scores worth of points here. We don’t need a close game, and a backdoor cover can absolutely bail us out of an early blowout. I have faith that Illinois can keep this one closer than the market expects, so take anything better than 17 and run.
College Football Expert Pick Against the Spread for Week 5: Illinois +18.5 -109 at BetRivers
Arkansas vs.Texas A&M Expert Pick Against the Spread
Hey, Ben Rasa here. I missed the best number on this line, but I still like Texas A&M at -5.5 against Arkansas in Arlington. Although it’s not technically a home game, there will be plenty of Aggie support, and talent-wise, Texas A&M has advantages all over the field.
The Aggies are 3-1 after losing to Notre Dame in Week 1, but they’ve looked like a completely different team since. Freshman quarterback Marcel Reed has taken over, and the early results are promising.
Reed’s dual-threat ability, four passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions thus far have been impressive. He performed well on the road at Florida, so playing in a more favorable environment here shouldn’t be an issue.
While Texas A&M has my interest, my main reason for backing them is wanting to fade Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 3-1 and coming off a win at Auburn, which is no easy task in the SEC.
However, if you dig into the box score, you’ll see Arkansas was outgained by nearly 100 yards and only won because Auburn turned the ball over five times. While Arkansas deserves some credit, that kind of performance isn’t sustainable. Let’s take advantage of that by fading them here.
Against a much better Texas A&M offense, I don’t see them replicating that success, which will put more pressure on their offense. Anything inside a touchdown is the number I’m looking for, so at -5.5, I’ll lay the points and call for Texas A&M to win comfortably.
College Football Expert Pick Against the Spread for Week 4: Texas A&M -5.5 -115 at FanDuel
